VZCZCXRO3388
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0084/01 0230921
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 230921Z JAN 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2745
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000084 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/C 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SLM/MM ALLEGES JEM MANIPULATED BY GOS 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 0075 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The SLA/MM commanders who defected to JEM last 
month are in fact government agents who instigated JEM's attack on 
Minnawi forces in Muhajiriya to sow discord amongst the rival 
Zaghawa movements at the behest of the government, SLM/MM reps told 
poloffs in a meeting on January 22. Meanwhile, JEM has instructed 
its troops to avoid Minnawi positions in South Darfur, but maintains 
its right to self defense, a JEM spokesman told poloff on January 
¶21. UN sources report that JEM is in putative control of Muhajiria 
and Labado, but is maintaining a minimal presence inside both towns, 
preferring instead to congregate on the outskirts of the towns. 
Meanwhile, fighting apparently broke out in Gereida the morning of 
January 22 between SAF forces and Masalit rebels formerly loyal to 
SLM/Minnawi who refused to vacate the town, resulting in four 
casualties. According to UN sources. The situation in Gereida 
remains tense and unpredictable. Minnawi himself related JEM efforts 
to expand its influence and military power in Darfur and throughout 
Sudan. End Summary. 
 
SLM/MM ALLEGES JEM IS BEING MANIPULATED BY THE GOS 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On January 22 poloffs met with SLM/MM MP Ali Traio, SLM/MM 
Liaison to SPLM (and brother of Minni) Hussein Arko Minnawi, and SLM 
Head of Training and Capacity Building Bushara Hassan. Traio 
immediately lashed out at former SLA/MM Commanders Arko Suleiman 
Dahia and Bakhit Karima, who defected to JEM last month. He claimed 
that they had infiltrated JEM on behalf of the GOS ("perhaps Nafie 
or Ghosh is pulling the strings") and blamed them for instigating 
the attacks in Muhajiriya. "I don't think Khalil in his right mind 
would attack our forces," stated Traio. "Arko and Bakhit started 
this conflict without his permission [at behest of the government]." 
Traio alleged that the government allowed JEM a free passage through 
to South Darfur to take Muhajiriya, and that SAF bombings of JEM 
positions on January 7 were merely a smokescreen in a scheme to sow 
discord between JEM and SLM/MM. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Traio continued Dahia and Karima "are obviously still 
government agents," noting that have always been pro-government and 
even before to their defection to JEM, had been early proponents of 
integration of SLM/MM forces into the SAF. He further stated that 
they have no conceivable ideological reason to join JEM, "but 
nonetheless they have everyone fooled, even Khalil." When asked how 
a movement known for its tight-knit leadership and disciplined 
decision-making could be infiltrated in this way, Traio asserted 
that Khalil has let his desire to be the sole rebel representative 
at possible Darfur peace talks in Qatar, as well as his urgent need 
for new recruits, cloud his judgment. He also pointed to public 
statements made by former SLM/MM Secretary General Mustafa Tirab on 
January 21 to "Al-Sahafa" which claim that Dahia and Karima were in 
fact his commanders and not JEM's as further evidence to the duo's 
questionable allegiances. (Note: Minnawi suspended Tirab, who has 
long been accused of working for the NCP, from the movement in 
October 2008.) Tirab also reportedly claimed that the announcement 
of a new SLM branch, SLM/Tirab, would be forthcoming. 
 
¶4. (SBU) With regard to the situation on the ground, Traio stated 
control of the villages of Muhajiriya and Labado is fluid because 
both JEM and SLM/MM forces "are staying mobile, in order to avoid 
being sitting ducks." He downplayed SLM/MM's handing over of its 
former stronghold of Gereida to government forces, stating that 
"Gereida isn't under the control of the SAF per se; they are there 
to protect infrastructure and water resources." (Note: On January 
22, UN sources told emboff that fighting broke out at 09:00 in 
Gereida between SAF forces occupying Gereida town and Masalit rebels 
formerly loyal to SLM/Minnawi, resulting in four casualties. While 
most Zaghawa SLM/MM fighters left Gereida under the orders of 
Minnawi, pockets of Masalit rebels rejected the decision and stayed, 
accnrding to the source. They were apparently angered by the arrival 
of government troops because it impinged on their desire to collect 
road tolls and other taxes, and clashes resulted. The fighting has 
subsided but the situation remains tense and unpredictable, 
according to the sources. End Note.) 
 
JEM INSTRUCTED TO AVOID MINNAWI POSITIONS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  On January 21, JEM's Secretary for Foreign Affairs 
Bushara Suliman Nour told poloff that JEM leadership has instructed 
its forces in Darfur to avoid SLM/MM's positions.  The 
Ndjamena-based JEM representative added that "we will avoid 
Minnawi's troops and do not want to fight with them, but we must do 
all we can to defend ourselves."  Nour claimed that Minnawi's forces 
started the fight in South Darfur, that SLM/MM is a legitimate 
target as Minnawi is still a part of the GOS, and that Minnawi's 
 
KHARTOUM 00000084  002 OF 002 
 
 
allies (specifically naming Abdallah Banda, Bahar Abu Gharda, and 
Jibril Tek) are "all bandits and JEM will do all it can to stop car 
jacking and lawlessness in Darfur."  Nour stated that he rejects all 
 rumors of secret JEM alliances with the SPLM and the GOS.  On 
another note, Nour said he is optimistic that negotiations with the 
GOS will begin in the next ten days saying "We are ready to talk 
with them." 
 
SECURITY UPDATE FROM UNDSS 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) UNDSS officer Will Mulders told poloff on January 21 in 
Nyala that UNAMID had resumed patrols to Muhajiriya on January 20, 
but a wide swath of eastern South Darfur still remains a no-go zone 
for UN civilians and INGOs.  According to Mulders, JEM is in 
putative control of Muhajiriya, 70 km east of Nyala, and Labado, 50 
km east of Nyala, but is maintaining a minimal presence in both 
towns, inste!d preferring to station their technicals and fighters 
outside of the towns.  The withdrawal of 31 workers from the INGO 
Solidarite went "smoothly," and UNDSS plans to conduct a security 
assessment on January 26 to determine if INGOs can return to the 
area.  In a brief conversation with UNDSS, JEM fighters stated that 
JEM conducted the military operation with the assistance of 
defectors from SLA/MM.  Additionally, JEM reportedly told UNDSS that 
while they intend to hold the territory in order to restore 
humanitarian and development operations in the area, they reiterated 
their oft-repeated desire of returning to capture Omdurman. 
 
MINNAWI CALLS FROM THE FIELD 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Calling from El Fasher on January 21 and 22, Minni Minnawi 
told CDA Fernandez that JEM's goal is to destroy or absorb all the 
other rebel movements, one by one, and then make a deal with the 
NCP, at the very least, elevating Khalil Ibrahim to Vice-President 
of Sudan and the regime's enforcer in Darfur. He said that JEM was 
trying to woo janjaweed fighters from the Arab Habbaniya tribe to 
join his movement. Minnawi said that Meidob tribesmen reaching his 
forces in North Darfur told them that the clash between mutinous 
Meidob and JEM in Chad in early January "was actually a massacre, 
with 148 Meidob killed by Khalil." Minni had also spoken with GOSS 
Presidential Affairs Minister Luka Biong Deng to clarify that he 
respected Salva Kiir and the SPLM but that the SPLM team that 
visited JEM recently "had its own agenda, not the SPLM's, I had 
relatives in the room when they met with Khalil so I know this for a 
fact." 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment: SLM/MM appears increasingly desperate as it 
watches its former strongholds disappear frOm its control, to both 
JEM and government forces.  SLM/MM has yet to muster a coherent 
response, politically or military, instead continuing to lob 
accusations in many directions. If the charges against Dahia and 
Karima are true, however, Minnawi would do well to reach out to 
Khalil for a rapprochement to avoid any further government 
treachery.   Meanwhile JEM has further asserted itself as the 
primary rebel movement capable of projecting force in Darfur (and 
beyond). Like the NCP, from which it sprang and whose epclusionist 
ideology it shares, it has mastered an effective mix of violence and 
duplicity, in pursuit of its core interests.  These latest moves by 
JEM may demonstrate that the movement was emboldened by its visit to 
Washington, but there is a strategic objective in moving powerfully 
into South Darfur: getting within striking distance of oil 
infrastructure in South Kordofan and of the Sudanese heartland in 
the Nile Valley.  The government will almost assuredly begin to bomb 
JEM locations in South Darfur in the coming days. EnD comment. 
 
FERNANDEZ