VZCZCXRO3056
RR RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #0045/01 0090953
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 090953Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6641
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 7219
RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT 5686

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000045 
 
KABUL FOR USFOR-A COS 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM, INL/AP 
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA 
NSC FOR WOOD 
OSD FOR WILKES 
CG CJTF-101 POLAD 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: MCAP MOPS SNAR PREL PGOV PTER PHUM AF
 
SUBJECT: PRT LASHKAR GAH, HELMAND PROVINCE: FOOD ZONE INITIATIVE AND 
HIGH WHEAT PRICES WILL REDUCE POPPY CROP IN 2009 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Initial reports indicate that the 2009 poppy 
crop in Helmand Province will be smaller than in 2008, with some 
local reports suggesting a 30 percent reduction.  High wheat prices 
and low opium prices have influenced farmers' decisions.  However, 
the new factor this year is Governor Mangal's USAID-sponsored Food 
Zone program.  Mangal's program combined providing free wheat seed 
to over 30,000 Helmand farmers with the threat of eradicating fields 
and/or arresting farmers who plant poppy.  With the law enforcement 
phase set to begin in late January, the program has attracted wide 
support from farmers who foresee improved and profitable wheat 
yields during 2009.  End summary. 
 
2009 - A Smaller Poppy Crop in Helmand 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Helmand farmers planted approximately 100,000 hectares of 
poppy in 2008, but local officials and numerous farmers insist the 
poppy crop will be as much as 30 percent less in 2009.  (UNODC also 
predicts a reduced Helmand poppy crop in 2009.)  Farmers told USAID 
they moved significant hectares, previously used for the poppy crop, 
into wheat production.  Many said high wheat prices are the main 
reason they switched.  Meanwhile, in Lashkar Gah the price for 
quality wheat is almost three times the 2008 price and imports of 
corn from Pakistan and wheat from Turkmenistan have increased to 
offset the higher prices. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In 2008, wheat prices also rose while opium prices stayed 
low following record poppy crops in 2006 and 2007.  This led many, 
including the UK Embassy, to predict sharply lower poppy cultivation 
levels in the province.  However, Helmand cultivation, which had 
exploded fourfold between 2005 and 2007, again expanded slightly in 
¶2008.  At the same time, poppy cultivation fell 19 percent in 
Afghanistan as a whole.  Prices alone were not enough to turn 
Helmand farmers from poppy planting last year. 
 
The Food Zone -- Carrot Plus Stick 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Helmand Governor Mangal's "Food Zone" program is a new 
factor this year.  Since August, Mangal has used a combination of 
public information, agricultural assistance, and loud threats of law 
enforcement to move farmers away from poppy planting.  With U.S. and 
UK support, Mangal has provided free wheat seed to over 30,000 
farmers in the densest poppy-growing area in the world; many farmers 
also received fertilizer from USAID.  The seed distributed through 
the program is superior to locally available seed; farmers said the 
quality of the inputs was a significant factor influencing their 
decision to grow wheat.  USAID reports that in the central district 
of Nad-e Ali, 75 percent of farmers participated in the program and 
some larger farmers moved their land back into wheat production. 
The district administrators of Gereshk and Garmsir said the poppy 
crop will be significantly lower in their areas and credited the 
Food Zone initiative for moving the farmers away from poppy 
production. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On January 4, at a shura of over 400 local leaders from all 
over Helmand, Governor Mangal announced the beginning of the law 
enforcement phase of the Food Zone program.  During the previous 
phases of the program, Mangal had made delivery of agricultural 
assistance to farmers contingent on their pledge not to plant poppy. 
 His public information campaign similarly stressed that anyone 
planting poppy will be subject to arrest and that poppy fields would 
be eradicated.  The primary "stick" Mangal pointed to was the 
U.S-supported Afghan National Police (ANP) Poppy Eradication Force 
(PEF), which eradicated in Nad-e Ali in 2007 and 2008.  This year, 
law enforcement efforts in the Food Zone will be more thorough.  An 
ISAF battle group began clearing insurgents from central Nad-e Ali 
in December to prepare for subsequent eradication operations.  The 
PEF, protected by a U.S.-supported 600-man Afghan National Army 
battalion, will conduct eradication of poppy fields in Nad-e Ali 
from late January through early April.  At the same time, local 
police will eradicate poppy in the eastern part of the Food Zone 
near Lashkar Gah. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Mangal's initiative, helped by high wheat prices and low 
poppy prices, will be a decisive factor in reducing poppy 
cultivation in Helmand this year, and could provide a model for 
broader reductions in the future.  Anticipating a reduced crop in 
 
KABUL 00000045  002 OF 002 
 
 
Helmand, a number of provincial leaders in the South have already 
approached the central government, as well as the United States and 
UK, to request assistance in developing similar "Food Zone" programs 
in their regions.   While we cannot always count on such 
advantageous agricultural prices or sustained political will to 
combat poppy cultivation, when they come together - as in Helmand 
this year - the chances of successful reduction are obviously 
greatly enhanced.  Sustaining any gains made this year, however, 
will require long-term efforts combining conditional agricultural 
assistance with credible law enforcement to push narcotics 
production out of the fertile irrigated lands along the Helmand 
River. 
 
WOOD