VZCZCXRO0303
PP RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #0105/01 0180844
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 180844Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6821
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000105 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
KABUL FOR COS USFOR-A 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR MCGRAW 
CG CJTF-101, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: COMMUNITY SUPPORT CHARACTERIZES PHASE 3 VOTER 
REGISTRATION SUCCESS 
 
REF: A. KABUL 08 3215 
     ¶B. KABUL 08 3296 
     ¶C. KABUL 0029 
     ¶D. KABUL 08 2939 
     ¶E. KABUL 08 3190 
 
KABUL 00000105  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  Phase 3 voter registration ended January 13, with three 
sites that closed for the Ashura (Muharram) holiday adding 
back a day on January 14.  As of January 15, Independent 
Election Commission (IEC) data show some 910,471 new voters 
joined the rolls in Nangarhar, Laghman, Khost, Paktika, 
Zabul, and Farah provinces. Operations proceeded smoothly and 
the IEC moved quickly to resolve the most common complaint -- 
that the batteries for the cameras and the car batteries used 
for power failed to perform reliably. 
 
----------------------- 
SECURITY CHALLENGES MET 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  IEC Deputy Chief Technical Officer Zekria Barakzai 
in several recent meetings has emphasized the key role that 
popular support has played in overcoming the security 
challenges of voter registration in the Phase 3 provinces. 
Afghan National Police Major General Rozi on January 10 
seconded this analysis, saying ordinary Afghans have kept the 
Taliban from "meddling" in the process.  Rozi added that, in 
his view, this strong show of popular commitment to elections 
portends calm on voting day. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Community leaders intervened to secure the release 
without ransom of registration workers kidnapped in Farah and 
Paktika (REF A.)  A second worker kidnapped in Paktika has 
yet to be released.  The voter registration site at the 
Mandozai district center in Khost re-opened the day after a 
suicide bomber killed fourteen children attending a school 
awards ceremony there. The bomber's exact intentions are 
unknown, but many locals believe the students, not local 
government officials or voter activity, were the target (REF 
B.)  As reported REF A, the Taliban fired rockets which 
landed near a voter registration site in Kanesk district in 
Farah; the target was almost certainly not the site, but 
nearby Afghan soldiers.  In one incident in Paktika and one 
in Khost, thieves stole voter registration materials. 
 
------------------------------------ 
WORRY OVER ETHNIC DISPARITIES EASES 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  IEC senior technical officials assess that the 
Phase 3 turnout has addressed earlier doubts about Pashtun 
voter participation in the elections.  Substantial 
registration in the populous, largely Pashtun province of 
Nangarhar (REF C), in particular, means that perceptions of 
ethnic disparities are receding.  In Phase 3, from January 10 
data, Nangarhar, Khost, and Paktika added some 585,000 new 
voters.  In the 2004 presidential contest, roughly 930,000 
voters came from these three Pashtun-dominated provinces. 
The four Phase 4 provinces of Helmand, Kandahar, Nimroz, and 
Uruzgan, in comparison, contributed about one-third fewer 
voters -- just under 620,000 in 2004. 
 
------------------------------ 
WOMEN'S PARTICIPATION MODERATE 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  The participation of women in the Phase 3 update 
is 39 per cent, within 1 percent of the rate in Phase 1 and 
Phase 2 (REF D.)  The number of women registrants increased 
sharply in the last few days of the phase, a phenomenon also 
observed in earlier phases.  The IEC reports its local 
conferences, held separately for women, religious leaders, 
and tribal elders, produced noticeable upticks in turnout, 
especially for women.  With the exception of Zabul, female 
participation in voter registration in all Phase 3 provinces 
is higher than female participation in secondary school, 
which varies from 6 to 27 percent.  (Excluding known 
irregularities, this comparative advantage for voter 
registration holds for 14 of the 24 provinces of Phase 1 and 
2 as well.)  In Zabul, the Provincial Electoral Officer 
refused to follow his colleagues' example of substituting 
elders when women registration workers could not be found. 
This poor management limited female participation to a mere 5 
percent. 
 
KABUL 00000105  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  FEFA, the Afghan NGO monitoring the voter 
registration process, noted the proxy registration of women 
observed in Phase 2 (REF E) continued in Phase 3, but did not 
collect data on the scope of the problem.  FEFA deployed 136 
observers covering about 70 per cent of the Phase 3 sites. 
In Khost, women were 51 per cent of total new registrants, a 
rate high enough to suggest some irregularities may be 
present. 
 
WOOD