VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIT #0028/01 0161356
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161356Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8699
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC

UNCLAS ISTANBUL 000028 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH INTELLECTUALS WANT FREEDOM TO DISCUSS 
ARMENIAN ISSUE, OPPOSE CONGRESSIONAL RESOLUTION 
 
REF: ANKARA 2118 
 
1.(SBU) Summary: Any official U.S. action to define the 1915 
massacres of Armenians at the end of the Ottoman Empire 
as a genocide would harm U.S.-Turkish relations and fuel 
anti-Americanism in Turkey, despite general positive public 
opinion toward the incoming Obama administration, according 
to six leading Turkish columnist/intellectuals from across 
the political spectrum.  At a lunch hosted by the Consul 
General, the group agreed the topic needs more open 
discussion in Turkey and that the Turkish government should 
better manage Turkish public opinion on the issue.  The 
27,000 signatures the "Ozur Diliyoruz" ("We Apologize") 
campaign (REFTEL) now has greatly exceeded the expectation of 
its authors (one of whom attended the lunch) and was 
furthering that discussion, but the participants debated the 
timing of the apology petition given the recent  progress in 
relations between Turkey and Armenia.  Economic factors and 
recent missteps by Prime Minister Erdogan mean that AKP could 
only expect 40 percent of the vote in the March municipal 
elections but would still come out ahead of any opposition; 
the lower its share of the vote, the closer the AKP would get 
to the military.  Turkish public opinion overwhelmingly 
supports the Palestinians - but not Hamas particularly - in 
the conflict with Israel.  Some expressed hope that any Obama 
approach to the Israeli/Palestinian problem would be more 
balanced than they perceived the Bush administration's had 
been.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Six of Turkey's best-known columnists gathered at 
the Consul General's residence to discuss current issues in 
Turkish politics and the prospects for U.S.-Turkish 
relations.  The group included Cengiz Aktar (mainstream 
nationalist Vata and one of the authors of the apology 
campaign); Sahin Alpay (mainstream Islamist Zaman who lived 
in self-imposed exile in Sweden in the 1970s); Murat Belge 
(of liberal Taraf and a leading leftist intellectual who 
travels with bodyguards due to threats to his security); 
Fehmi Koru (from pro-government Yeni Safak and a reported 
confidante or President Gul); Haluk Sahin (with liberal 
Radikal); and Ferai Tinc (of mainstream secular Hurriyet). 
Alpay, Belge and Sahin were all participants in AFS exchange 
programs as high school students.  Tinc and Alpay are alumni 
of the international visitor program. 
 
"THE MOTHER OF ALL TABOOS" 
 
¶3. (SBU) Cengiz Aktar described Turkish public sensitivity to 
discussion of the 1915 Armenian massacres as "the Mother 
of all Taboos".  Murat Belge called it "the number one issue 
for the health of the country".  Aktar defended the 
apology campaign against those who accused him and his 
co-authors of trying to "submarine" recent official Turkish 
and 
Armenian efforts to improve relations.  He described it as 
"independent, but not unrelated"; the petition is a chance 
for Turks to express themselves individually on the legacy of 
¶1915.  Fehmi Koru criticized the timing of the petition, 
saying it was "prematurely brought to the table" given the 
positive initiatives by President Gul to normalize relations 
with Armenia, including going to the football match in 
Yerevan in 2008. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Aktar said that an unnamed "leading Armenian 
intellectual" had told him before the petition started that 
it would be a "revolution" if it received 10,000 signatures 
by the end of 2009.  Over 27,000 people have signed the 
petition in less than one month.  Aktar expects another wave 
of signatures on January 19, the second anniversary of Hrants 
Dink's assassination.  Aktar indicated many renowned 
intellectuals have signed it (including Alpay and Belge) and 
claimed many of the signatories are Kurds, including DTP 
politicians.  However, for him the most extraordinary thing 
is that the vast majority of signatories are "common 
man-in-the-street" Turks.  He criticized the Turkish media 
for not covering more the "huge" interest in the campaign by 
the international media.  Note: Turkish newspapers give a 
fair amount of space to how international press covers 
Turkey.  End note.  Aktar said he has also heard that an 
Armenian diaspora group would also start a petition on 
January 19 "accepting" the apology. Note: Turkish press 
reported on January 16 that a group of Armenians in France 
wrote an open letter thanking those who signed the Turkish 
petition. End Note. 
 
ADVICE TO OBAMA: NO GENOCIDE RESOLUTION 
 
¶5. (SBU) The apology petition had stirred an "unprecedented 
debate" in the Turkish public over the Armenian issue, Aktar 
said, and the group talked about how the timing coincided 
with questions over what the Obama administration would do as 
it assumes office.  Alpay advised against any resolution by 
the U.S. Congress defining the mass killings of 1915 as 
genocide.  Belge called such resolutions "senseless", 
although he said he understood the U.S. or French domestic 
concerns behind them.  Sahin and Aktar agreed that either a 
congressional resolution or the use of the word "genocide" 
by President Obama in the annual April 24 statement would 
deal a huge blow to bilateral relations and any efforts by 
the new administration to repair the U.S. public image in 
Turkey.  Sahin continued that 95 percent of the Turkish 
public opposed a resolution, including liberal intellectuals. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The group agreed that a congressional resolution 
would not help the debate over 1915 in Turkey because it 
would then become externally focuses in anti-American terms. 
However, they all concurred that the public needed to be able 
to have a free discussion on the legacy of these tragic 
events.  Aktar asked, "Where is the effort to manage the 
public opinion?" by the government.  Koru said the AKP is not 
happy with the apology campaign, but Belge noted Erdogan and 
Gul had personally intervened to allow the 2005 Bilgi 
University conference on the Armenian issue to proceed. Koru 
characterized public reaction to the Armenia issue as rooted 
in "Anatolian emotionalism."  Koru said that for those 
living in the Turkish heartland, "who don't read the 
newspaper", stories get passed down and around families and 
villages of alleged incidents where Armenians killed Turks 
during World War I. These people are unlike to believe 
stories of the massacres of Armenians, and even less likely 
to believe they constituted a genocide - especially if the 
allegation comes from outside. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Ferai Tinc, on the other hand, said the Turkish 
public might be past the point where a resolution would be a 
catastrophe.  In 2007, Turks were very concerned a resolution 
would actually pass.  She reminded that some commentators 
had said that if the U.S. Congress was ever going to pass a 
resolution it should get it over with, so the issue wouldn't 
be a perennial sticking point the U.S.-Turkish relationship. 
At least passing a resolution would engender more talk at the 
intellectual level, she mused.  Sahin called for Turkey to 
"transcend the issue;" he hoped that in 10 years such 
resolutions "either would not be needed or won't be noticed" 
if they do pass.  He compared the situation to that of two 
decades ago when similar passions were sparked over disputes 
between Greece and Turkey, and yet now these issues can be 
more openly discussed despite the lack of a settlement 
between the two countries. 
 
COLUMNIST PREDICTS AKP WILL PULL 40 PERCENT IN LOCAL ELECTIONS 
 
¶8. (SBU) Turning to the subject of the March municipal 
elections, Koru predicted AKP would get about 40 percent of 
the vote nationwide - more than any other party, but less 
than the 50 percent it could have commanded in the recent 
past. (Comment: Koru's prediction is on the optimistic side 
for AKP. Many political analysts believe Turkey's economic 
woes will cut into AKP's vote.  A series of resent polls show 
AKP with support under 40 percent and suggest 30-40 percent 
of voters remain undecided. End comment.) Koru bemoaned 
Erdogan's "new approach to many matters", citing unspecified 
mistakes on the Kurdish and Armenian issues.  Others 
predicted a less rosy outcome for AKP.  Alpay said the 
economic crisis would cost Erdogan votes; Belge said that the 
administrative competence of most local AKP politicians would 
allow them to keep their jobs despite blunders by the 
national party or a weakening economy.  Koru said that if the 
AKP gets less than 40 percent of the national vote it would 
move closer to the military in managing the affairs of the 
country.  Tinc sighed, "That's already happened," reflecting 
the views of many that a secret bargain already exists 
between the AKP and the General Staff. 
 
INVITATION TO OBAMA, AND A PLEA ON THE ISRAELI/PALESTINIAN 
SITUATION 
 
¶9. (SBU) The group implored President-elect Obama to visit 
Turkey as soon as possible to capitalize on enthusiastic 
public reaction to his election.  They were interested in 
whether Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton would 
get sufficient authority from the President to be effective, 
particularly in dealing with conflicts in the Middle East. 
Alpay hoped the Obama administration would be more "fair" 
than he believed the Bus administration had been in dealing 
with the Israelis and Palestinians, meaning he would take 
more of a favorable view of Palestinian concerns.  Turkish 
public opinion is squarely on the side of the Palestinians; 
Tinc reported that when she had written a column criticizing 
both Israel and Hamas she received a flood of hate mail for 
having written anything negative about Hamas. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Finally, on Turkey's EU aspirations, the columnists 
still believe in its necessity to effect reform in Turkey. 
Aktar called Egemen Bagis a good choice for chief EU 
negotiator.  Moreover, he said "the position should have been 
moved to the Prime Ministry years ago", allowing the EU 
negotiator to get direct access to Erodgan. 
Wiener