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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000182 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PK
SUBJECT: A PRIMER: PAKISTAN'S SENATE ELECTIONS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On or about March 9, Pakistan will hold 
indirect elections to replace 50 (of 100) members, whose 
terms expire this year.  The process, controlled by the 
Election Commission, is governed by a complicated 
proportional system in which members of the National and the 
four Provincial Assemblies vote by secret ballot on 
candidates selected by party leaders.  There is no direct 
election of senators.  The Provincial Assemblies decide the 
majority of seats, so the outcome of the election is expected 
to reflect the current balance of power in the provinces. 
Currently, the provinces of Sindh, Balochistan and Northwest 
Frontier Province (NWFP) are controlled by the Pakistan 
People's Party (PPP)-led coalition; Punjab is under the 
opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).  Political 
commentators, therefore, expect the PPP and the PML-N to 
increase their seats; Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League 
(PML) and its religious party allies (which control the 
current Senate) are expected to lose seats. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Also scheduled for March 9 is a nationwide lawyers' 
demonstration, with the participation of PML-N and the 
religious Jamaat Islami (JI) party; whether this street 
protest will have any real effect on the outcome of the 
indirect Senate elections is doubtful.  After the Senate 
elections, the PPP and its coalition partners should be in a 
strong enough position to enact constitutional reforms, which 
require a two-thirds majority in both the National Assembly 
and the Senate.  End Summary. 
 
Pakistan's Senate: Party Big Wigs 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (SBU) Pakistan's Senate was designed to be a force for 
governmental continuity and stability.  Unlike the National 
Assembly -- the lower house that defines the country's 
parliamentary system -- the Senate cannot be constitutionally 
dissolved, and only half of its 100 senators are up for 
election at a time.  Senators serve six-year terms, and their 
indirect election is held within 30 days prior to the 
conclusion of the term.  The upper house, however, is more a 
bulwark of Pakistan's political parties than any chamber of 
elder statesmen.  Most senators are financial contributors to 
and/or high-level advisors in the parties; several are close 
relatives or friends of party leaders. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Constitutionally, senators are indirectly elected, 
most by the Provincial Assemblies, but, in reality, party 
leaders hand-select their slate of candidates.  Members of 
the assemblies can be expected to vote as their respective 
party leaders have instructed, even though the vote is by 
secret ballot.  Party negotiations, leading up to the actual 
poll, will still take place.  Reportedly, parties will offer 
financial incentives, promise works projects, and exchange 
ministries and chairmanships for senate seats to ensure party 
unity, lure other parties' dissidents, and sway the smaller 
parties. 
 
Nuts & Bolts 
- - - - - - - 
 
¶5. (SBU) Election Commission Secretary Kunwar Dilshad 
recently told Ambassador that this year's senatorial 
election, for those 50 seats last filled in 2003, will be 
held on/about March 9.  National and Provincial Assembly 
members go to vote on the same day at their respective bodies 
in the federal and provincial capitals.  Of the 50 Senate 
seats up for grabs, 28 "general" members will be elected by 
the four Provincial Assemblies, 7 by each.  The Provincial 
Assemblies will each also elect two female senators and two 
technocrat/ulema senators.  Four "independent" senators from 
the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) are selected 
by the FATA parliamentarians in the National Assembly, and 
all National Assembly parliamentarians will choose one 
"general" and one "reserved" (this election cycle, a female) 
senator to represent the Islamabad capital district. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The current Senate, all of whose members were 
elected during the Musharraf era, reflects the old balance of 
power.  A greater number of senators from the Pakistan Muslim 
League (PML, 17) will be up for re-election than from the now 
ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP, 5) or leading opposition 
 
ISLAMABAD 00000182  002 OF 002 
 
 
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N, 3).  In addition, the 
former Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) coalition of religious 
parties, including now PPP partner Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam 
(JUI-F) as well as opposition Jamaat Islami (JI), is 
over-represented in today's Senate, with eight seats in 
jeopardy.  With this election, the Senate balance is expected 
to tilt in the PPP's and PML-N's favor, though not entirely, 
because only half the body will change over.  The election 
results should reflect the proportional balance of power in 
the provinces.  Currently the PPP and its coalition allies 
rule in Sindh, Balochistan, and the Northwest Frontier 
Province (NWFP); the PML-N rules (in a coalition with the 
PPP) in the largest province of Punjab. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The following chart lists the current number of 
seats held by each party (totaling 100) and how many of those 
seats are up for election (totaling 50). 
 
Party : Number of Current Senate Seats : Number of Seats Up 
For Election 
 
Awami National Party : 2 : 1 
Baloch National Party-Awami : 1 : 1 
Baloch National Party-Mengal : 1 : 0 
National Alliance : 1 : 1 
Independents (including 4 from FATA) : 9 : 7 
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal : 19 : 8 
Muttahida Quami Movement : 6 : 3 
Pakhtunkhawa Milli Awami Party : 3 : 2 
Pakistan Muslim League : 40 : 17 
Pakistan Muslim League-Functional : 1 : 0 
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz : 4 : 3 
Pakistan People's Party : 10 : 5 
Pakistan People's Party-Sherpao : 3 : 2 
 
¶8. (SBU) The Constitution requires all federal ministers to 
be serving parliamentarians.  Current Advisor to the Ministry 
of Interior Rehman Malik will likely be elected as a senator 
and thus adopt the formal title of minister.  It is not yet 
clear if Advisor to the Ministry of Finance Shaukat Tareen 
will also run.  Long-time PPP senators, including Enver Baig, 
who were close to Benazir Bhutto, may lose out in the party 
shuffle as President Asif Zardari moves to consolidate 
control of the PPP party structure.  PML's Chaudhry Shujaat, 
who lost in February's National Assembly elections, will top 
the PML list to become a senator. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comment: If the commentators are proven right, the 
new Senate will be dominated by the PPP and should allow the 
government to proceed with proposed constitutional reforms, 
which requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of 
parliament. 
 
PATTERSON