VZCZCXRO5576
PP RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHIHL #0007 0270526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 270526Z JAN 09
FM REO HILLAH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1138
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RUEHIHL/REO HILLAH 1211

UNCLAS HILLAH 000007 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN BABIL: CREDITABLE IMPROVEMENTS OVER 
2005 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY.The Babil provincial election campaign has been 
lively and robust, engaging previously alienated voters (Sunnis 
and Saddrists) and producing predictions of a high turnout. The 
campaign reflects creditable progress over the last election in 
2005, and the Independent High Electoral Commission's (IHEC) 
performance in the province has been generally effective, fair 
and impartial. None of the campaign violations that have 
occurred - and all but two of the 77 political entities have 
been served warnings - are serious enough to put in question the 
credibility of the January 31 vote, although the greatest risk 
of fraud will occur in the ballot counting on election night, in 
the view of IHEC and political party leaders. END SUMMARY. 
 
2.(U) Babil's Provincial Council (PC) election campaign has been 
robust with more candidates competing than in any province 
outside of Baghdad. ISCI and Da'wa haved used their influence 
with the media and larger war chests to get out their message, 
but nearly all political entities and candidates have engaged in 
active campaigning. The provincial capital and many towns are 
plastered with campaign posters from the 77 political entities 
fielding candidates. PM Nuri Al-Maliki made a campaign stop in 
Al-Hillah to address a rally at a football stadium, signaling 
Da'wa's hope of building on the PM's personal popularity with 
the voters. Other national figures campaigned in Babil, 
including Da'wa breakaway leader Ibrahim Al-Ja'afari who visited 
Hillah to assist ISCI's campaign by meeting with voters; COR 
member and Badr chief Al-Ameri held a campaign meeting in 
Hillah's Badr HQ; and ISCI's dauphin, Ammar Al-Hakim, visited 
Hillah and held a rally at the same stadium as PM Al-Maliki. 
 
Strong Turnout Expected 
 
¶3. (U) Despite complexity of the ballot, most voters claim to be 
informed about the voting process, and voter turnout is likely 
to exceed the levels  (65%) of the 2005 election. Earlier voter 
skepticism appeared to slacken during the vibrant election 
campaign of the last several weeks. The Sunnis in the north are 
expected to fully participate in the election, although no one 
slate appears to own the Sunni vote. Even the Saddrists, who 
only months ago questioned the political process are actively 
engaged in campaigning. In addition to the two "officially 
endorsed" slates, Saddrist voters have at least three others 
from which to choose. 
 
Prospects for Change 
 
¶4. (SBU) Governor Salim Saleh Al-Muslimawi does not have a 
university degree, which in theory makes him ineligible to be 
reelected by a new PC. With one-third of the PC not running for 
reelection, the turnover could be considerable. As it appears 
that its hold on power may weaken or be broken, ISCI has 
increasingly relied on a message that it is the choice of the 
Najaf Shia leadership (Marja'iyah). Hadi Al-Ameri (ISCI/Badr) 
told Al-Hillah voters that his slate, Shaheed Al-Mihrab, is a 
part of the chosen people of Marja'iyah because of ISCI's 
sacrifices in resisting Saddam's regime. 
 
Campaign Cheating: Widespread But Banal 
 
¶5. (U) The Governor has even implied to his own hometown 
constituents that they would be damned if they did not vote for 
ISCI. Both ISCI and Da'wa, as well as former Governor Iskander 
Witwit, stand accused of bribing voters by dispensing phone 
cards, clothing, blankets, Qurans and meals in exchange for 
pledges to vote for their slate. Governor Salim arranged a mass 
wedding as a campaign event and included ISCI supporters who had 
already been married to boost the numbers. As part of the 
ceremony he also distributed wedding furniture to the 
"newlyweds" by using money he had "collected" from Al-Hillah 
merchants. 
 
¶6. (U) Posters have been placed everywhere including government 
buildings, which has been the source of many campaign violations 
and complaints. However, most violations, as well as the use of 
public office/funds for campaign purposes, have been of the 
mundane type.  In the view of many PRT contacts, the greatest 
risk of fraud will be during the counting and certification of 
the vote, especially in rural areas. 
 
IHEC's Performance 
 
¶7. (SBU) All but two of Babil's 77 political entities have been 
warned by IHEC over illegalities, but none has been fined as of 
January 26.  The IHEC office in Babil has been fair and 
competent, although this view is not fully shared by some of the 
smaller political entities, who assume IHEC must be in the 
pocket of the parties in power. Campaign violence has been 
limited although highly publicized, as when Da'wa's number two 
candidate was assassinated in Jabella on January 16. 
 
HEATH