VZCZCXRO4873
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0033/01 0121623
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121623Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3912
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 2154
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 2541
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 2663
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1156
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1932
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2287
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2712
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 5140
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1823
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000033 
 
AF/S FOR B. WALCH 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN 
TREASURY FOR D. PETERS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN 
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ECON ZI
 
SUBJECT: ZIM NOTES 01-09-09 
 
----------- 
¶1.  SUMMARY 
----------- 
Topics of the week: 
 
- ZANU-PF-MDC Negotiations... 
- Ministers Shuffled, Still Room in the Cabinet for MDC... 
- Abductees Still in Prison... 
- GOZ Decides to Fight Cholera, Too? 
- Skyrocketing Media Fees Likely to Restrict Free Flow of 
Information... 
- Uganda Praised for Zim Position... 
- Public Hospitals to Charge in Foreign Exchange... 
- Zimbabwe Faces Another Poor Maize Harvest... 
- Government Extends Life Of The National Incomes And - Pricing 
Commission (NIPC)... 
- Dollarization Puts School Fees Out of Reach of Most Parents... 
- Tobacco Production Down By Half... 
 
--------------------------------- 
¶2.  Price Movements-Exchange Rate 
and Selected products 
--------------------------------- 
 
Parallel rate for cash rose five-fold to Z$30,000,000,000:US$1 
 
Check rate rose to Z$15 quadrillion:US$1 against inter-bank average 
of Z$8,676,674:US$1 
 
Bread on the parallel market went up to Z$30,000,000,000 
 
Sugar shot up to Z$90,000,000,000/2kg 
 
Petrol and diesel rose to Z$30,000,000,000/liter 
 
----------------------------- 
On the Political/Social Front 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3.  ZANU-PF-MDC Negotiations...  The MDC held a leadership meeting 
in South Africa this week to discuss its negotiating position. Early 
reports are that the MDC affirmed its National Council resolution of 
last month to require the resolution of outstanding issues, 
including equitable division of ministries, allocation of permanent 
secretaries, and composition and functions of the national security 
council, before joining government. Tsvangirai has requested that 
South African president Motlanthe chair a meeting between him and 
Mugabe to discuss these issues. An additional obstacle is the 
failure of the government to comply with Tsvangiriai's ultimatum 
that all abductees be accounted for and charged or released by 
January 1. 
 
¶4.  Ministers Shuffled, Still Room in the Cabinet for MDC... On 
January 4, Mugabe announced he was dismissing a number of ministers 
who had lost their parliamentary seats in the March 2008 elections. 
On January 6, he named acting ministers to replace them that 
included current senators and MPs. Several ministers are now tasked 
with two ministries. The shuffle amounts to routine housekeeping and 
leaves the cabinet door open for a government of national unity or 
for Mugabe to form a ZANU-PF government. See Harare 19. 
 
¶5.  Abductees Still in Prison...  All 18 abductees charged with 
terrorism for various plots continue in police custody. On January 
6, a magistrate decided that Jestina Mukoko and nine others will 
remain in custody, pending various appeals and high court 
applications; they will appear again in the magistrate's court on 
January 14. On January 7, seven others were charged with bombing 
police stations. Finally, two who were ordered released on December 
 
HARARE 00000033  002 OF 003 
 
 
30 remain in custody. In addition to the abductees, three landowners 
were arrested this week; although they were ordered released, they 
are still in custody. Notably, of the 14 MDC activists abducted from 
Banket around October 31, five have still not surfaced. The MDC has 
not yet commented on the total of 14 abductees who remain 
unaccounted for. See Harare 18 and 29. 
 
¶6.  GOZ Decides to Fight Cholera, Too?  On January 5 the Reserve 
Bank and Ministry of Health hosted the launch of a "Media and 
Stakeholder Blitz" for cholera awareness. The event was attended by 
national and regional government officials, local chiefs, state 
media, and a handful of others due to short notice. WHO's technical 
input was largely ignored during the meeting, in favo of 
self-congratulation from government represenatives. Health Minister 
Parirenyatwa praised theefforts of government agencies and the 
contributons of non-Western donors, noting "illegal sanction" and 
"war" as "predisposing factors" for choler. As of January 8, WHO 
reported 36,671 cases and1,822 deaths. 
 
¶7.  Skyrocketing Media Fees Likel to Restrict Free Flow of 
Information...  On Janary 2, the government announced new fees that 
will push most local journalists out of official channls of 
information. Under the new regulations, local journalists working 
for foreign media organizations will pay a US$1,000 application fee 
and a US$3,000 accreditation fee (up from US$100 and US$200, 
respectively). Fees to operate a foreign mass media service or news 
agency also skyrocketed to US$10,000 to apply and US$30,000 to 
register (up from US$2,000 and US$10,000, respectively). 
Accreditation allows journalists access to Parliament and government 
records and to attend official functions. There are penalties - up 
to two years in prison - for unaccredited journalists who attend 
official functions or access these records for the purposes of 
practicing journalism. Most Zimbabwean journalists have opted out of 
local media houses due to poor wages. 
 
¶8.  Uganda Praised for Zim Position...  On January 2, the government 
mouthpiece The Herald praised Uganda after its Ambassador to the UN 
reportedly said the Security Council should defer handling of the 
Zimbabwe crisis to SADC, saying Zimbabwe does not pose a threat to 
international peace. On January 1, Uganda began a two year rotation 
on the UNSC, replacing South Africa. 
 
---------------------------------- 
On the Economic and Business Front 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  Public Hospitals to Charge in Foreign Exchange... Starting this 
week, Zimbabwe's public hospitals can charge for all medical 
services in foreign currency. Although it is hoped that this will 
improve service delivery, medical care will remain out of the reach 
of most Zimbabweans. 
 
¶10.  Zimbabwe Faces Another Poor Maize Harvest...  According to the 
Commercial Farmers Union, Zimbabwe is not likely to produce enough 
food during the 2008/09 season because of a shortage of maize seed, 
fertilizers, chemicals and fuel. While the country requires 50,000 
tons of maize seed every year, only 23,000 tons were available to 
plant. Zimbabwe is expected to produce 400,000 tons of maize 
compared with domestic demand of 2 million tons. The GOZ and UN will 
conclude an official assessment in February and their conclusions 
should be available in early March. 
 
¶11.  Government Extends Life Of The National Incomes And Pricing 
Commission (NIPC)...  On January 2, the Minister of Industry and 
International Trade extended the price monitoring of goods and 
services until June 30, 2009. Businesses and schools will have to 
apply to the NIPC for any price and fees adjustments during this 
period. The effectiveness of the regulations remains to be seen 
 
HARARE 00000033  003 OF 003 
 
 
given that most prices are now quoted in foreign currency. 
Meanwhile, police in Bulawayo arrested more than 100 shop-owners and 
attendants for selling goods and services in foreign currency 
without Reserve Bank approval. Such action is likely to result in 
empty shelves as shop-owners stressed that they will not sell in 
Zimbabwe dollars when they bought the goods in foreign currency. 
 
¶12.  Dollarization Puts School Fees Out Of Reach Of Most Parents... 
The progressive dollarization and doubling of fees by most schools 
has put education beyond the reach of many Zimbabwean children. With 
demand for local currency falling sharply as dollarization widens, 
it is now difficult and expensive to change Zimbabwe dollars into 
foreign currency. In a related development, the government has 
delayed the start of this year's first school term by two weeks to 
January 27, citing the need to conclude the marking of last year's 
primary and secondary level public examinations. Both teachers' 
unions are calling for teachers to be paid in foreign currency, with 
the traditionally pro-ZANU union calling for salaries of US$2,300 
per month. 
 
¶13.  Tobacco Production Down By Half...  According to a crop 
assessment by the Zimbabwe Tobacco Auction Center, tobacco 
production for the 2008/09 season is expected to be down more than 
50 percent due to a shortage of fertilizers and coal. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶14.  "It is clear that the Mugabe regime will not collapse because 
of economic decay, mass starvation, or epidemics such as cholera.... 
 Yes, ordinary people are perishing and will continue to do so, but 
the regime will not disintegrate."  -- A coherent portion of Arthur 
Mutambara's largely rambling rant,  "Inconvenient truths about the 
West and Zimbabwe."  The full text is online: 
http://www.thezimbabweindependent.com 
/opinion/21751-the-inconvenient-truths 
-about-the-west-and-zimbabwe.html 
 
 
MCGEE