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RR RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHGZ #0047/01 0220919
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 220919Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0141
INFO RUEHGZ/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE 0067
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0073
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0039
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 0024
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0024
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0024
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 0016
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC 0001
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC 0064
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC 0064

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 000047 
 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR EAP/CM, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB PHUM CH
SUBJECT: Down on the Farm? Migrants Unlikely to Remain in Villages 
Following Chinese New Year 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: Once you've seen the bright lights of the big city, 
it's hard to go back to the farm.  Local labor NGO leaders predict 
that the large numbers of migrant workers who lost their jobs and 
returned to their home villages early for the late-January 2009 
Chinese New Year holiday will most likely come back to seek jobs 
after the holiday.  Local governments in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) 
have done a relatively good job ensuring that most migrant workers 
received their wages due before their holiday travel, though not 
without some exceptions.  Reduced opportunities for overtime work 
may affect year-end remittances and may influence their assessment 
of job prospects after the holiday.  Most migrant workers will 
likely return to coastal manufacturing centers in part because 
shrinking job opportunities there still exceed those available in 
the countryside.  Several of our contacts predict that many workers 
will take a wait-and-see approach, keeping an eye on any changes in 
the economy and waiting until the end of the Chinese New Year 
holidays before deciding what to do and where to go for employment. 
(Septel will report on similar issues based on conversations 
directly with PRD migrant workers.)  End summary. 
 
Labor NGOs Confirm Earlier Exodus than Usual 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Large numbers of migrant workers began leaving their factory 
jobs in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) as early as October 2008 to 
return to their home villages for the late-January 2009 Chinese New 
Year, according to six representatives and directors of labor NGOs 
operating in the PRD.  Our contacts cited jobs lost after factories 
closed or were forced to cut staff -- with workers at 
export-oriented enterprises taking the heaviest blow -- as the main 
reason for the early travel.  (Comment: Memories of the snowbound 
2008 Chinese New Year transportation difficulties encouraged even 
those workers who still have jobs to return early.  After the 
holiday, the specter of fewer jobs and increased competition for 
available positions could cause workers to return to work earlier 
than usual as they seek to be first in line to be hired -- or 
rehired -- by economically squeezed factories.  End comment.) 
 
On the Whole, Wages Being Paid 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (U) Most workers received their basic wages due, and local 
government scored relatively high marks for enforcing wage payments, 
according to labor NGO reps in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.  Two of our 
Shenzhen-based contacts noted that even workers at bankrupt 
companies received compensation through the Shenzhen Government's 
Wage Guarantee Fund, and all six of our contacts said that local 
governments in the PRD were paying close attention to the wage 
payment issue, "for fear that it might trigger social unrest," 
according to one.  A Guangzhou-based NGO director said that the 
labor bureau in his city had been quick to act to resolve worker 
complaints over wages.  One contact complained that although most 
workers had received their wages, the wages themselves sometimes 
remained illegally low.  In addition, wage problems are far from 
over; one PRD telephone hotline providing advice to migrant laborers 
still receives six to seven calls each day from workers complaining 
of underpayment or nonpayment of wages. 
 
¶4. (U) Part of the calculus for workers determining whether to 
return to their factory jobs will be the availability of overtime 
work.  Several of our labor NGO contacts note that base pay makes up 
only a small part of worker earnings, with the bulk coming from 
overtime hours.  Shrinking export demand has forced many factories 
to cut back overtime hours, said one contact who predicted that 
normally sizable year-end remittances to the countryside would be 
reduced this year as a result. 
 
It's Hard to Go (and Stay) Home Again 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Migrant workers have adapted to urban life and do not desire 
a return to farming or village life, our contacts all agreed.  Some 
workers would choose to remain in their village, said one contact, 
especially if they were of an entrepreneurial bent and could take 
advantage of subsidies offered by some local governments for 
migrants to open new businesses.  Most workers, though, seemed to 
think that, even though employment opportunities in the PRD or the 
Yangze River Delta (YRD) were grim, they still far outnumbered those 
available in the countryside. 
 
¶6. (U) The director of one Shenzhen-based labor NGO related to us 
 
GUANGZHOU 00000047  002 OF 002 
 
 
how, at the time of leaving Shenzhen, many workers said they would 
stay in their home villages and not return.  Recent communications 
with these workers and their friends, however, have suggested that 
around 70 percent of these workers now plan to return to Shenzhen 
after the Chinese New Year simply because they can find no suitable 
jobs at home. 
 
¶7. (U) Another Shenzhen-based labor NGO director predicted that 90 
percent of Shenzhen's migrant workers would return to manufacturing 
cities in the PRD and YRD -- though not necessarily to Shenzhen -- 
for employment after the Chinese New Year due to lack of 
manufacturing and service industry jobs in the villages.  The NGO 
director said that the current generation of migrant workers have no 
experience farming and in any case prefer city life to a rural 
existence. 
 
Wait and See 
------------ 
 
¶8. (U) Regardless of where migrants go to find work, competition for 
jobs will be fierce.  Several of our contacts noted that the Chinese 
New Year tradition of returning to one's hometown provides an 
opportunity for migrants to share information about job prospects in 
different regions of the county.  Workers who do not feel anchored 
to a particular city or company will likely make a decision about 
where to go for work based on word-of-mouth from their fellow 
villagers, say our contacts.  Several of our contacts predicted that 
many workers would take a wait-and-see approach, keeping an eye on 
any changes in the economy and waiting until the end of the Chinese 
New Year holidays before deciding what to do and where to go for 
employment. 
 
GOLDBERG