VZCZCXRO7669
RR RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0121/01 0290808
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 290808Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1423
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0412

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000121 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG PREL EPET PGOV TI
SUBJECT: Power Situation in Tajikistan Worsens 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Tajikistan's national electricity carrier 
announced January 27 that, effective that day, Dushanbe residents 
would receive only 15 hours of electricity per day.  Power rationing 
is far worse outside of the capital, with some towns receiving as 
little as one or two hours of electricity a day and some rural areas 
reportedly receiving no power whatsoever.  The electricity company 
placed the blame squarely on Uzbekistan's refusal to permit energy 
from Turkmenistan, with which Tajikistan concluded a deal last year, 
to transit Uzbek territory.  Meanwhile, the Nurek Hydropower 
Station, which generates 75% of Tajikistan's domestic energy, only 
has enough water in its reservoir to provide electricity for another 
15 days.  Tajikistan's Deputy Prime Minister Murodali Alimardon has 
reportedly been dispatched to Tashkent in an attempt to free up the 
energy, but most Tajiks are pessimistic that his visit will achieve 
its goal.  Some sources say the Uzbeks will not release energy until 
Nurek has been bled dry.  End summary. 
 
Uzbekistan Refuses to Transmit Power; Rationing Starts in Dushanbe 
 
¶2. (U) On January 27, Tajikistan's national electricity carrier 
Barqi Tojik announced that beginning that day, power would be 
limited to 15 hours a day in Dushanbe.  In previous statements, the 
Tajik government had assured residents that power rationing would 
not be instituted in the capital, no matter how bad the situation 
got in the rest of the country.  According to a company press 
release, however, the reduction in supply was necessitated by the 
Uzbek government's refusal, "above all, for political purposes," to 
allow energy into Tajikistan.  Tajikistan had concluded an agreement 
to import 1.2 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy from 
Turkmenistan every winter through 2012, at a cost of 3 cents per 
kWh.  Uzbekistan had agreed to transport the electricity through its 
grid for an additional fee of 0.3 cents per kWh.  Although the first 
400 million kWh was transmitted during November and December as 
planned, Uzbekistan has refused to allow the remaining power into 
Tajikistan.  Uzbekistan has also refused to deliver an additional 
600 million kWh this winter from its own plants, as provided for in 
a separate agreement, in exchange for 900 kWh from Tajikistan during 
the summer. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Application of the power outages has been somewhat spotty 
so far.  Many Embassy local staff, especially those living in 
outlying areas of Dushanbe, report that their power has been cut 
overnight as announced.  Some Embassy-leased houses in the center of 
the city, however, have not experienced cuts, while others have. 
There are credible rumors that powerful people live on the streets 
where the power is left on. 
 
¶4. (U) Without imported energy or rationing, the Nurek Hydroelectric 
Station, which generates three-quarters of Tajikistan's electricity, 
will lose the capacity to produce power within two weeks.  The water 
level in the Nurek Reservoir currently stands at 863.38 m, less than 
7 meters above the "dead point," at which the level is too low to 
drive the turbines.  Without rationing in the capital, the reservoir 
is losing approximately 0.5 meters a day.  (Current outflow is 440 
cubic meters per second, somewhat replenished by inflow of 122 cubic 
meters per second.) 
 
¶5. (U) According to Barqi Tojik, President Emomali Rahmon already 
decreed that energy to the country's largest single consumer, the 
Talco aluminum plant in Tursunzade, was to be reduced by 6.5 million 
kWh per day from the beginning of January.  Although the Barqi Tojik 
QkWh per day from the beginning of January.  Although the Barqi Tojik 
press releases says the plant is now operating at 30% of its 
capacity, this appears to be a typo, and Talco is likely operating 
at 70% of its capacity. 
 
Situation Far Worse Outside of Dushanbe 
 
¶6. (SBU) As bad as things may be in the capital, they are 
considerably worse in the provinces.  Although official government 
sources say that outlying areas are receiving three to four hours 
per day, according to embassy contacts some areas in the north -- 
for example, on the outskirts of Isfara -- are receiving no 
electricity at all.  Without any power, residents without access to 
automobiles have been unable to charge their mobile phones -- for 
many, the only kind of phone available -- and are losing their 
connections to the outside world.  Even in the regional capital of 
Khujand, which receives some power, the local cardiology center has 
stopped performing heart surgeries because its generator cannot 
adequately heat and illuminate the operating theater.  Dozens of 
people requiring surgery have been forced to wait, for fear that 
they might contract pneumonia if operations are conducted in 
freezing temperatures. 
 
¶7. (SBU) During Econoff's visit to the north last week, some power 
was being transmitted in the cities, although who received what and 
for how long appeared to be highly dependent on the recipient's 
location, the importance of his or her business, and -- most of all 
-- whether he had connections to local authorities.  Some areas of 
the city, even in the very center, already receive as little as 1.5 
 
DUSHANBE 00000121  002 OF 003 
 
 
hours a day, while others have power for as long as five or six 
hours, according to Shoirahon Isomaddinova, who manages a chain of 
supermarkets in Khujand.  Before the new year, residents had 
regularly received 8 or 9 hours per day.  Isomaddinova said the 
minimal power supply made it particularly difficult to operate 
businesses in the food sector; while temperatures have been just a 
few degrees above freezing over the past week, unseasonably warm 
weather could ruin inventory.  The limited power has also made it 
difficult for bakeries operating with electric ovens (some are 
powered by natural gas, the supply of which has been much steadier). 
 
 
¶8. (U) The situation was worse in the smaller cities outside the 
regional capital.  In Isfara, Konibodom, and Istaravshan, residents 
said they received only an hour or two of electricity in the morning 
and evening.  The curator of the Konibodom city museum advised 
against visiting in the evening, because the museum's only light 
came from the sun.  In offices, stores, and restaurants, people 
huddled in sweaters and jackets.  For the most part buildings 
remained freezing even when the power was on, because a local 
ordinance forbade the use of electricity to run heaters. 
 
But, Through Connections, Some Manage 
 
¶9. (SBU) Despite the rationing, a number of residents nevertheless 
found ways, some of them more legitimate than others, to keep the 
power running.  In Isfara, the TajFruit dried fruit packing plant 
was receiving round-the-clock power.  According to the director, 
Zafar Abdullojonov, local authorities deemed his plant, which is 
located within a bread production facility, a strategic enterprise 
and kept the electricity on.  Despite this, the plant's overall 
production has declined by two-thirds because of reduced demand for 
dried fruit in Russia -- an effect, Abdullojonov said, of the world 
economic crisis.  The packing machines now only operate two days a 
week, down from six previously. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Likewise, in Konibodom, a computer training center 
operated by Musharaf Hasanova with support from different 
international donors, including the United States, received 
un-rationed power because of an exemption granted by the municipal 
government.  (Perhaps not coincidentally, however, the power 
provider occupied the floor above her center.)  As the sun set she 
was eager to turn the lights off in her office in order not to 
provoke the jealousy of her neighbors.  Although the city power was 
ostensibly off during Econoff's discussion with Isomaddinova in 
Khujand, the lights in her supermarket remained on.  She did not 
provide a direct response when asked how she had managed to keep the 
power on, noting only that the amount was so minimal it could only 
be used for lighting.  Indeed, the cash registers in her supermarket 
were off, and there was no heat.  Shorauf Shorahmatov, the head of 
an agricultural cooperative in the city of Istaravshan, was more 
direct, saying he owed his electricity to his brother, who had some 
influence through his work at the local telecom company.  There were 
even a number of exceptions to the no-heating rule.  A restaurant 
had no heat the first night Econoffs visited, some heat the second 
night, and rather comfortable heat the third night. 
 
¶11. (SBU) The outages are also a problem in the southern parts of 
the country.  The city of Kulob is getting only 2.5 hours of power 
per day, according to press reports.  As the home region of 
President Rahmon, Kulob usually gets favored treatment. 
 
Gas Getting Through 
 
¶12. (SBU) In contrast to the electricity situation, residents in all 
Q12. (SBU) In contrast to the electricity situation, residents in all 
four northern cities noted above reported having a constant and 
reliable supply of natural gas originating from Uzbekistan.  The 
Soghd region extends like a peninsula separating Uzbekistan's 
Andijan region from the rest of the country, and Soviet-built gas 
lines connecting the two areas pass through it.  Although Uzbekistan 
reportedly is constructing a longer pipeline through its own 
territory that skirts Soghd, for the moment it remains reliant on 
the Soviet-built system.  Although residents were not entirely 
certain just how that gas made it from the pipeline to their houses 
-- or whether it was part of an official agreement or merely 
unofficial "leakage" -- they said the gas has made the difference 
for many people between having some power and having none at all. 
In the south, by contrast, gas supplies have been uneven in the wake 
of the Uzbek decision to hike prices from $145 to $240 per thousand 
cubic meters beginning January 1. 
 
Comment 
 
¶13. (SBU) The failure of Uzbek authorities to allow Turkmen energy 
to reach Tajikistan lends some credence to the view that Tashkent 
wants to bleed Nurek dry, reducing Tajikistan to the position of an 
utter supplicant, before allowing any power through.  While a few 
residents with connections have managed to circumvent rationing, the 
overwhelming majority of Tajiks are struggling with little or no 
 
DUSHANBE 00000121  003 OF 003 
 
 
power, which cripples commerce and makes ordinary life difficult. 
That the lack of heating has not resulted in more serious problems 
is simply an accident of unseasonably warm weather.  There is more 
winter ahead, however, and a plunge in temperatures could have 
severe consequences.  End comment.