VZCZCXRO4387
PP RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDJ #0088/01 0301626
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301626Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0064
INFO SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DJIBOUTI 000088 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
SENSITIVE 
DEPT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM SO DJ
SUBJECT: SOMALIA  CAMPAIGN SPEECHES IDENTIFY FRONTRUNNERS 
 
REF: a) DJIBOUTI 87 
 
REF:  Djibouti 87 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  On January 29, the fifteen candidates 
for President each made a speech to Parliament.  At the end 
of the presentations, most MPs agreed that TFG Prime 
Minister Nur Hassan Hussein Nur Adde and ARS Chairman 
Sheikh Sharif Ahmed remained the frontrunners.  Nur Adde 
focused on his record of reconciliation and the results he 
achieved as Prime Minister.  Sheikh Sharif presented a 
message focused on the importance of Islam as the basis for 
solutions to Somalias ills.  Sharif won the most applause 
of all the candidates yet Nur Adde was also very well- 
received.  Some of the candidates delivered remarks that 
many regarded as prime ministerial speeches, to indicate 
their capacity to serve in the number two spot.  Mohamed 
Qanyare Afrah used the opportunity to announce his 
withdrawal from the race.  With the speeches now concluded, 
all preparations are now set for the January 30 elections. 
Prior to the elections, twelve additional ARS-nominated 
parliamentarians will take the oath of office.  The three- 
phase electoral process will likely last through the night 
but all were confident that a new president would emerge by 
January 31.  End Summary. 
 
Campaign Speeches: 
A Window on the Candidates 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Beginning at about 6:15 p.m. on January 29, the 
fifteen candidates vying for Somalias presidency began 
making their speeches.  (For a list of the candidates, see 
reftel).  Each candidate was allotted fifteen minutes for 
their remarks and the electoral commission strictly 
enforced the time limit.  The candidates presented remarks 
in alphabetical order, by their first names.  Many of the 
candidates identified the crisis of leadership as the 
source of most of Somalias problems.  They each offered, 
to varying degrees, priorities they would address if 
elected.  The first presentation by Abdirahman Abdi 
Hussein, currently Somalias Ambassador to Iran.  Hussein 
said he would focus on poverty as the root cause of 
violence, and then address the security situation by 
seeking diverse perspectives across all groups.  Former 
warlord Ahmed Hashi Mahmoud said he would focus on 
eliminating clanism and would serve as an example for all 
other Somalis to follow.  He won applause when he stated 
that Now, the entire world rules Somalia; it is now time 
for Somalia to rule itself. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Ali Hashi Dore advocated for the introduction of 
political parties to prevent all the candidates from 
focusing on personal ambitions, which he said had 
undermined all of the previous failed peace processes.  He 
reminded the MPs that this was a transitional government 
and asked them to elect the man who can best serve as 
father to the transitional process.  Former Prime 
Minister Ali Khalif Guled delivered a prime ministerial 
candidates speech, focusing on his proven record and 
ability to bring opposing groups together to effectively 
manage a power sharing arrangement.  He asked all Somalis 
to read the constitution and the charter so they would each 
understand their personal responsibilities.  Another former 
PM, Hassan Abshir Farah delivered a speech for the number 
two job.  In his opening remarks, Farah stated that his 
first order of business would be to appoint a strong PM and 
a quality cabinet to re-instill trust, build peace and make 
progress. 
 
Will Number 13 be lucky for Nur Adde? 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Now that he is a candidate for president, some 
MPs insist on referring to Nur Adde as the former Prime 
Minister, making the point that he cannot use the official 
state platform to advance his campaign.  As the thirteenth 
candidate to present his speech, Nur Adde began by clearly 
stating that he is the best candidate because his focus on 
reconciliation yielded the tangible results of an expanded 
parliament.  He told the audience that after much effort 
and discussions between the TFG and the ARS, his leadership 
has helped make the Djibouti process a success.  He said 
that reconciliation must continue and he pledged to roll up 
his sleeves to continue the work he has begun.  Nur Adde 
said that his top priority would be to create an effective 
government of national unity. 
 
DJIBOUTI 00000088  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶5.  Nur Adde offered a laundry list of priorities, 
beginning with the institution of law and order, respect of 
the Charter and laws of the country, and economic 
development and reconstruction.  The former PM said he 
would move toward the creation of political parties and 
elections at the end of the transitional period, 
humanitarian access, financial systems, and press freedom. 
He promised to give special consideration for human rights 
and the role of civil society.  Nur Addes speech was clear 
and he appeared much more charismatic than usual.  He was 
also the only candidate to distribute (in Somali) a hard 
copy of his remarks.  His focus on reconciliation won him 
solid applause from the audience. 
 
Sheikh Sharif Offers an Islamic Olive Branch 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Sheikh Sharif delivered his speech directly after 
Nur Adde.  The audience, especially from the ARS-nominated 
MPs, loudly exhorted the ARS Chairman and newly sworn-in 
MP.  Although his message at the January 26 opening of the 
meeting in Djibouti focused on reconciliation, Sheikh 
Sharifs campaign speech was notable in its focus on Islam 
as the foundation for change.  Sharif began by stating that 
all of Somalias problems are interconnected and based on 
political conflict.  He said now that more people are 
participating in the political process, the population is 
ready to do its part in improving security.  He linked the 
deterioration of the economic sector to the worsening 
security situation.  Sharif told the MPs, We can solve all 
of these problems by working together, as equals, and 
reinforced by our religion. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Sharif said that Islamic Sharia law teaches that 
dialogue is the basis for conflict resolution and that 
justice and reconciliation must be the foundation for a 
peaceful Somalia.  He cautioned that many religious ideas 
appear to be part of Islam but in an allusion to al- 
Shabaab, he noted that they are ideologies that have 
nothing to do with the religion.  Sharif gained hearty 
applause when he said that as president, he would appoint 
religious scholars to help the population make the 
distinction between true and false Islamic doctrines.  In 
addition to religion, Sharif had a strong message about 
security, praising Somalias former military officers as 
capable of helping its forces secure the country and avoid 
spilling any more blood.  He concluded by stating that 
religious groups are now carrying out tasks that should be 
done by the government and his mission is to once again 
have government in the lead, serving and being accountable 
to its people. 
 
A Few Surprises 
--------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) When it came time for former warlord and TFG MP 
Mohamed Qanyare Afrah to make his speech, he announced that 
he would be brief because his only message was that he was 
withdrawing his candidacy.  He thanked all of his 
supporters and said that all would move together in one 
voting block to support the best man for the job.  Many saw 
this move as yet another way for him to keep relevant and 
exert influence in the next administration by delivering 
his supporters. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Muslah Mohamed Siyad, the son of former president 
Siad Barre, received heavy applause and cheers from the 
audience, even prior to his speech.  Some have attributed 
this to financial incentives for his supporters and 
nostalgia among some for the comparatively prosperous pre 
1991 years.  Siyad delivered a brief message stating his 
intention to focus on rebuilding national identity and 
pride and re-establishing the dignity of Somalia.  There 
is speculation that Siyad has the lead among the Darod, 
although there is an internal struggle among Darod sub- 
clans about how the clan should leverage its influence. 
Yusuf Al Azhari also delivered a solid performance focusing 
on his years of experience working within Somalias 
government and his ideas on how to work with parliament to 
achieve sustainable peace.  After the five hour session, 
the candidates departed for a long night of campaigning at 
the various hotels in Djibouti where the members of 
Somalias unity government were choosing their favorites. 
On January 30, SRSG Ould-Abdallah announced that several 
ARS-nominated MPs who arrived overnight would be sworn in 
prior to the start of the election. 
 
DJIBOUTI 00000088  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Sheikh Sharif was not the only candidate to 
focus on religious themes.  All of the candidates made 
reference to Islam during their speeches as a core value on 
which Somalias reconstruction must be built.  Several made 
specific mention of instituting Sharia law nationwide. 
Most candidates also made specific mention of the 
leadership crisis gripping Somalia.  At the end of the 
session, many told us that Sharif looks like a clear 
frontrunner but the process is complicated and many other 
outcomes remain possible.  Late evening on January 29, we 
met with Sheikh Sharif and told him that in the event he is 
elected, he must choose a strong Prime Minister from 
outside the ARS and a capable and representative cabinet. 
He agreed.  On January 30, the MPs will cast their secret 
ballots and we expect that after at least two rounds of 
voting, sometime in the early morning hours, Somalia will 
have a new president. 
SWAN 
 
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