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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000054 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E JLIDDLE; INR/RAA: FEHRENRIECH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR TZ
SUBJECT: President Kikwete Rallies Zanzibar CCM Party 
Supporters But Shrugs off Reconciliation 
 
REFS: (A) 08 Dar es Salaam 844; (B) 08 Dar es Salaam 839; 
(C) 08 Dar es Salaam 643; (D) 08 Dar es Salaam 444 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On January 25 President Jakaya Kikwete 
headlined a Zanzibar political rally in his capacity as 
ruling Revolutionary Party (CCM) Secretary-General. 
Kikwete listed numerous achievements attained in 
infrastructure and social services, attributing the gains to 
CCM and Zanzibar President Karume's "leadership."  Kikwete 
denied there was a "dual standard" between development of 
the two islands that make up Zanzibar, Unguja and Pemba. 
(Comment: However, even casual observers readily see the 
obvious disparity that disfavors opposition stronghold 
Pemba.  End Comment.)  By avoiding the question of 
reconciliation with the opposition ("muafaka"), Kikwete 
conveyed a message of "more of the same" in a charged 
political environment headed for conflict absent strong 
leadership.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) On Sunday January 25, Zanzibar Affairs Specialist 
(ZAS) observed a ruling Revolution Party (CCM) rally at 
Kibandamaiti in the Urban West Region of the main Zanzibar 
island of Unguja.  The rally was organized to mark the end 
of President Jakaya Kikwete's five-day tour of the 
Zanzibari isles of Unguja and Pemba.  Kikwete spoke to the 
crowd in his capacity as CCM party Secretary General. 
Dispensing at the outset with the question of 
reconciliation with the opposition party, Kikwete called 
critics of the Zanzibar government "drunkards," a strong 
epithet for a community that is 98 percent Muslim. 
However, for the body of the speech Kikwete chose a more 
collegial tone and gave the impression that he came to 
Zanzibar to rally the party by diffusing ongoing CCM intra- 
party conflicts, to which the CCM Urban Region Chair had 
inferred earlier on (ref A). 
 
¶3. (U) Kikwete's speech concentrated on achievements that 
the Zanzibar government had registered on Unguja and Pemba, 
which he said was reflected by solid progress made in 
infrastructure, social services, peace and stability and 
consolidation of the Union.  He began by saying that "the 
Zanzibar Government under Karume" has been able to 
construct and spread good tarmac roads across the islands, 
noting that Zanzibar's progress even surpassed mainland 
Tanzania.  Kikwete also talked about the power problem of 
Pemba (ref B) and asked people not to believe that Pembans 
were deliberately subjected to this hardship.  Blaming the 
power problem on a "dilapidated" generating system, he said 
"the Governments of Tanzania and Zanzibar, through 
Norwegian assistance, are going to solve the power problem 
in Pemba once and for all," promising a cable connecting 
Pemba to the mainland would be finished by December 2009. 
(Comment: the Norwegians told us that the Pemba power line 
would unlikely be completed until after the October 2010 
elections.  End Comment.).  Kikwete also mentioned that the 
Government would construct a marine cable from the mainland 
to Unguja "with MCC support," although he did not give 
details about the Millennium Challenge Account or mention 
that it was a partnership with the United States. 
 
¶4. (U) Another issue that Kikwete spoke about was the 
delivery of social services.  He congratulated Karume for 
equally dividing services between the people of Unguja and 
Pemba, boasting that while in Pemba he, Kikwete, 
"inaugurated a water reservoir tank at Kengeja and told the 
recipient community that the CCM government was responsible 
for delivering the services even to the people that did not 
vote for it." Kikwete also praised the good performance of 
the Zanzibar government in the health sector.  While making 
no reference to PEPFAR, USAID or the CDC, Kikwete praised 
Zanzibar for considerably reducing malaria, which he said 
was still a problem on mainland Tanzania. 
 
¶5. (U) On law and order, Kikwete credited the CCM party for 
"the peace and stability the people were enjoying nation- 
wide." Likewise, he claimed to have diffused the partisan 
conflicts that he said were severe previously.  Regarding 
 
DAR ES SAL 00000054  002 OF 002 
 
 
the union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar, Kikwete assured 
people that the party was "properly handling all problems 
facing the Union."   Kikwete noted that soon the Zanzibar 
Election Commission (ZEC) would be registering voters and 
finalizing voting lists.  He said that moment should spur 
CCM party members into full campaign mode. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT:  Even some of the more diehard party 
members in the audience commented to ZAS that some of 
Kikwete's boasts about Karume's leadership in delivering 
Zanzibar development were disingenuous.  By standing next 
to Karume and singing his praises to a crowd intimately 
aware of his failures, Kikwete may have furthered cynicism 
among party supporters.  Nonetheless, Kikwete's speech 
likely was aimed at reinforcing his support for Karume 
against Zanzibar CCM party barons actively savaging their 
own party as they compete against each other for the crown 
of Karume, who is statutorily prevented from running again 
in 2010.  However, Kikwete did not leave any hints about 
whom he might support to replace Karume.  For the 
opposition, who might have been listening for an opening 
toward reconciliation, calling them "drunkards" was not 
helpful.  Finally, for the vast majority of apolitical 
Zanzibaris, Kikwete's deliberate blurring of voter 
registration and the CCM campaign, between civil government 
and CCM party politics, will reinforce the widely shared 
notion that ZEC is a CCM party organ and not a civil 
service-run honest broker in conducting elections.  In sum, 
Kikwete, in trying to rally the fractured Zanzibar CCM 
party, instead might have conveyed a message of "more of 
the same" in a charged political environment headed for 
conflict and perhaps even violence (which has occured in 
every multi-party election to take place in the islands) 
absent strong leadership for a change of course.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
ANDRE