VZCZCXRO6195
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0109 0271700
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271700Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1776
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS DAKAR 000109 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL AND INR/AA 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM ECON SG
SUBJECT: Senegal: President and Ex-Number Two Reconcile 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On January 12, 2009 Senegalese President Abdoulaye 
Wade and former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck officially announced 
their political reconciliation.  Seck who fell out with and opposed 
Wade in the 2007 presidential elections maintains his chances to 
become Senegal's next President.  Political observers believe that 
this opportunistic reconciliation is designed to enable Wade to stem 
the fragmentation of the ruling party while setting the stage (he 
seems to believe) for Seck to compete with the President's son Karim 
for the ruling party's nomination for presidential candidate in 
¶2012.  End Summary. 
 
Countering the opposition 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Senegal's opposition announced a recent move to form a 
coalition for the March 22 local elections.  Their goal is to turn 
these elections into a referendum on Wade's popularity.  They have 
been joined by Macky Sall, former Prime Minister and President of 
the National Assembly, who resigned from the ruling Democratic Party 
of Senegal (PDS) taking with him many disgruntled party members.  By 
reconciling with Idrissa Seck, who is arguably the second most 
popular and well known political figure in the country, Wade hopes 
to minimize the impact of Sall's dissidence.  It also prevents Seck 
and Sall from joining forces in a united opposition coalition. 
 
The Never-Ending Battle for Presidential Succession 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶3. (SBU) This reconciliation brings the battle for succession back 
within the ruling party.  Wade's biological son (Karim), and what 
many describe as his spiritual (Seck) will have to compete for their 
party's nomination or find a power sharing formula and or mutual 
guarantees of immunity after Wade leaves power. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The PDS and Seck's party Rewmi have merged their lists of 
candidates in preparation for local elections.  In a press 
conference Seck maintained that he is ready to serve in any position 
that Wade will entrust him with, which many believe may indicate 
that he might become Prime Minister again, given the rampant 
speculation that the days of Cheikh Hadjibou Soumar, the current 
prime minister, are numbered.  What remains unclear is how or if 
Wade's son Karim is willing to welcome Seck back into the fold given 
the widely held belief that Karim help orchestrate Seck's ouster 
from the PDS before and that both men hope to succeed Wade. 
Bernicat