VZCZCXRO9876
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0830/01 0051545
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 051545Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3304
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000830 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: ECOWAS AND UN MEETINGS ON GUINEA'S POLITICAL 
TRANSITION 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  Charge attended two meetings over the 
weekend, one with a visiting ECOWAS delegation, and one 
with the UN regional representative out of Dakar. 
Diplomats highlighted key concerns, which included 
questions as to how the new Guinean Government will be 
structured, who will ultimately hold power, and what role 
the CNDD (Council for Democracy and Development) will 
play.  Although Western diplomats continued to push for a 
six month timeline for elections, most ECOWAS nations and 
the United Nations seemed willing to work toward a twelve 
month timeline.  Press reports indicate that the French 
Minister of Cooperation brokered a deal with the CNDD to 
hold elections within twelve months, but the CNDD has not 
officially acknowledged this decision.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Charge attended two separate meetings with 
Guinea's international partners over the weekend to discuss 
concerns over the December 23 coup.  The first was with the 
visiting ECOWAS delegation, led by ECOWAS Executive 
Secretary Dr. Mohamed Chambas and General (and former 
president of Nigeria) Ibrahim Babangida.  Attendees 
included Ambassadors and Charges from Spain, Ghana, 
Senegal, Liberia, Mali, and the United Kingdom.  The second 
meeting was with the UN's regional representative, Said 
Djinnit, who is based in Dakar.  Spain, the EU, the UNDP, 
Germany and the United Kingdom participated in the second 
meeting. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
ECOWAS LOOKING TO BUILD DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) General Babangida told the assembled diplomats 
that ECOWAS' intent is to help "facilitate the building of 
democratic institutions" in Guinea.  A Burkinabe member of 
the delegation added that securing peace in the sub-region 
is also a priority.  Explaining the delegation's immediate 
objective, Chambas said that ECOWAS is focused on working 
toward a peaceful and timely transfer of power to a 
civilian government, and asked the diplomatic corps to help 
provide solutions.  Babangida noted that ECOWAS has 
experience working with Guineans, pointing out that the 
ECOWAS delegation helped broker the tripartite agreement 
that ended the labor strikes and subsequent civil unrest in 
¶2007.  He added that ECOWAS intended to congratulate the 
CNDD (Council for Democracy and Development) for its 
success in keeping the military "calm" through the 
transition period.  (COMMENT.  Babangida led the ECOWAS 
delegation in 2007 and was perceived to have been highly 
instrumental in getting President Conte to accede to 
civilian demands.  END COMMENT). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The international community highlighted a number 
of shared concerns.  Questions as to how the new government 
will be structured, what role the CNDD will play, and who 
ultimately will hold power were at the top of the list. 
The Spanish Ambassador said that the new government's 
priorities remain unclear while others commented that the 
CNDD sometimes appears to be contradicting itself. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) On the issue of elections, opinions were 
divided.  The Liberian Ambassador agreed with Charge 
Raspolic, saying that elections should be held within the 
next six months.  He followed that statement with a 
question as to whether the assembled countries intended to 
formally recognize the new government if it announces an 
elections date, but the diplomats were noncommittal.  The 
Senegalese Charge mentioned that Senegalese President Wade 
had cancelled a planned visit to Guinea because the CNDD 
had failed to announce an election date.  The Malian 
Ambassador, who is new to Guinea, said that it would be 
impossible to hold elections in six months.  According to 
him, a twelve month timeframe was more realistic, noting 
that "it is important to do it right."  A lawyer by trade, 
he added that a national conference to address 
constitutional and electoral reform issues would be 
useful.  The Ghanaian Ambassador commented that he was 
concerned about "forcing Guinean to hold elections too 
soon." 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The ECOWAS delegation is scheduled to leave 
Conakry on January 5, and is expected to convene another 
meeting with the diplomatic corps before departing. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
UNITED NATIONS LOOKING AT 12 MONTHS FOR ELECTION TIMELINE 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
 
CONAKRY 00000830  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The UN representative, Said Djinnit, said that he 
was not surprised by the coup.  However, he noted that 
divisions within the military appear to continue.  Djinnit 
said that opposition political parties may see Conte's 
death and the subsequent coup as an opportunity to 
capitalize on the population's fear to win control of the 
government, although his meaning was not clear and he did 
not clarify.  He said that the UN is looking for Guinea to 
hold elections within twelve months. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The participating Ambassadors and Charges 
highlighted concerns similar to those raised in the ECOWAS 
meeting, including questions of power structure, security, 
and continued political divisions at the top.  With respect 
to elections, the United Kingdom and the European Union, 
along with Charge Raspolic, said that they continue to call 
for elections within six months.  Pointing out that the EU 
has already invested 30 million Euros in Guinea's electoral 
process, the EU representative said that voter registration 
is now "50% complete."  He added that the EU has no 
preference as to whether or not the presidential election 
is held concurrently with the legislative election.  The EU 
raised the point that the Supreme Court is the body legally 
mandated to resolve electoral disputes, but since the CNDD 
dissolved the Supreme Court, it is unclear what body would 
have final authority over the electoral process. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Both meetings were called at the last minute so 
the diplomatic representation was not as widespread as it 
might have been had representatives been notified earlier. 
Western diplomats continue to hold to a six month timeline 
for elections, but there is a growing sense that such a 
timeline may be unrealistic.  As noted by several diplomats 
during the meetings, some civilian contacts are pushing to 
reform the constitution before moving to elections.  There 
are also concerns over the voter registration process, 
despite the EU assertion that 50% of voters have already 
been registered.  Most ECOWAS nations and the UN seem to be 
willing to work toward a twelve month timeline.  The 
immediate concern for most appears to be defining the 
Guinean Government's new power structure and reinforcing a 
civilian transition leading to elections. 
 
¶10.  (U) The French Minister of Cooperation also visited 
Conakry over the weekend.  International and local press 
alike reported that the French delegation was satisfied 
with its discussions with the CNDD.  The Minister was 
quoted as saying that France not currently planning to cut 
any "humanitarian or cooperation assistance."  The BBC 
announced that the French had brokered a deal with the new 
government to hold elections within twelve months, but the 
CNDD has not confirmed this decision.  END COMMENT. 
 
RASPOLIC