VZCZCXYZ0002
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRY #0039/01 0131650
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 131650Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3348
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000039 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CONTE'S PARTY STILL IN THE PICTURE, "SATISFIED" 
WITH THE MILITARY JUNTA 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Guinea's ruling party for the past 25 
years, the PUP, is "satisfied" with the National Council for 
Democracy and Development (CNDD) and is willing to work with 
the military regime to organize legislative elections within 
the next six months.  A PUP contact said that the party is 
willing to consider constitutional revisions, but that such 
revisions should not interfere with the electoral timeline. 
Describing the next few months as a honeymoon period, Contact 
seemed convinced that the CNDD will eventually fail, that 
opposition political parties overestimate their power and 
influence, and that the population will ultimately return to 
the PUP.  Whether for show or because of personal conviction, 
he seemed confident that the PUP will continue to be a major 
political player in the months and years ahead.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Poloff met with Sekou Konate, the Secretary General 
of the late President Conte's Party for Unity and Progress 
(PUP), on January 12.  The PUP's headquarters was relatively 
subdued, with the Guinean flag flying at half-mast in 
deference to the official 40-day mourning period, and a 
handful of people sitting outside in chairs under shade 
trees.  The million dollar construction project that Konate 
had bragged about to Poloff during a visit exactly one year 
ago had been abandoned, only the footprint and random bars of 
rebar visible. 
 
------------------------- 
PUP AT EASE WITH THE CNDD 
------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) When asked for the party's views on the military 
junta and the transition period, Konate told Poloff that the 
PUP has accepted the National Council for Democracy and 
Development (CNDD) and is willing to work with its members. 
He described how the CNDD demonstrated an appropriate level 
of respect and honor for the deceased head of state by 
ensuring that funeral arrangements went forward in a 
dignified and secure manner.  "The CNDD has not spoken poorly 
of him (Conte) and that is important," he said.  Konate 
emphasized that the PUP is content with the current situation. 
 
----------------- 
WHY WE HAD A COUP 
----------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Konate said that the military coup was not a 
surprise to most PUP members.  He pulled out a document 
apparently drafted during a party congress in October and 
began to read the party's conclusions verbatim.  He drew 
similarities between the pre-coup situation in 1996 to the 
later months of 2008, saying that the party had been deeply 
worried that continued weak governance, poor economic 
conditions, and political infighting would eventually 
encourage the military to attempt a coup.  "This is exactly 
what happened in 1996," he told Poloff. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Looking up from his analysis, Konate said "but you 
know the real reason behind the coup, don't you? - it was all 
Sompare's fault."  (COMMENT.  A PUP member, Aboubacar Sompare 
was the head of the now dissolved National Assembly, and 
Conte's constitutional successor.  END COMMENT).  According 
to Konate, Sompare "incited the youths" to stage a coup 
because he handled the transfer of power poorly and did not 
demonstrate an appropriate level of respect to the deceased 
president.  "Why did he have to step in just hours after 
Conte's death to announce that he was taking power?  He did 
not have to do that because it was clearly stated in the 
constitution...his announcement was inappropriate," he said. 
Konate said that Sompare should have been focused on 
arranging the funeral and providing for the country's grief, 
not focusing on his own personal ambitions.  "He did not 
demonstrate respect for African culture," Konate said. 
 
----------------- 
TOWARDS ELECTIONS 
----------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) On the question of elections, Konate said that the 
PUP is committed to holding legislative elections within six 
months.  Poloff noted that most of the other opposition 
parties had agreed to this agenda as well, but Konate said 
that the PUP had not been invited to the discussions. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Konate noted that civil society leaders are pushing 
for constitutional reform and indicated that the PUP would 
not necessarily be against such reforms, as long as elections 
stay on track.  He specifically mentioned a proposal to 
constitutionalize an age limit of 70 years for presidential 
candidates, which has some support, commenting "of course, 
 
 
that would mean that Alpha Conde and Mamadou Bah would be out 
of the running" (COMMENT.  Both are rival political leaders 
of opposition parties.  END COMMENT).  Konate added that it 
should be "easy" to make the necessary constitutional reforms 
and still hold elections within six months. 
 
----------------- 
HIGH EXPECTATIONS 
----------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) According to Konate, it is important that the 
transition period not last more than a year.  "If it takes 
longer, we are going to have real trouble," he said.  He 
described how the current regime is in a honeymoon period 
with the population, and that people will soon begin to see 
that the CNDD cannot deliver on its promises.  Konate said 
that the PM does not hold any real power and is in a 
difficult position.  "He does not have the real authority to 
appoint his cabinet because he has to pacify all the military 
officers...he is under significant pressure," Konate said. 
"As soon as he announces the new government, everyone will 
see the reality," he added. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) When Poloff mentioned the French Minister of 
Cooperation's recent visit, Konate became visibly irritated. 
He described how the French had met with four of the major 
political parties, but intentionally failed to invite the 
PUP.  "We are the only party that is nationally based and not 
tied to a single ethnicity," he said, adding "the French are 
inciting ethnic divisions by encouraging the ethnic parties." 
 
-------------------------------- 
PUP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PLAYER 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Returning to elections, Konate seemed confident as 
he explained the other parties' lack of understanding of 
their popular support.  He said that the opposition parties 
have overestimated their influence, but that the legislative 
elections will prove a valuable test, clearly demonstrating 
where each party stands.  "The PUP is not dead and we will 
continue to attract voters," he said.  Konate pointed out 
that opposition leader Sidya Toure (leader of the UFR) had 
never actually participated in any previous election, 
implying that Sidya cannot have any real idea of his 
constituent base. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) A staunch PUP loyalist, Konate seemed convinced 
that the PUP will continue to be a major player in Guinean 
politics despite President Conte's death.  His comments and 
attitude suggest that the PUP is simply sitting back and 
waiting for the situation to implode.  Konate seemed 
convinced that the CNDD will be unable to effect meaningful 
change, that the population will become dissatisfied, and 
that the ethno-centrist positions of the political parties 
will ultimately bring people back to the PUP.  He told Poloff 
several times "people will see."  Konate said that the 
previous system of abuse and manipulation continues, a system 
for which he blames former government officials such as Prime 
Minister Kouyate, but certainly not President Conte. 
Konate's views may be wishful thinking and/or political 
posturing, but his underlying concerns are valid.  END 
COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC