VZCZCXRO3322
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0025/01 0091445
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091445Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3330
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0578
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000025 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV SOCI ASEC GV
SUBJECT: TECHNICAL PARTNERS SAY ELECTIONS LIKELY TO TAKE 
PLACE TOWARDS END OF 2009 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Technical experts who have been working 
with the Guinean Government to organize elections since June 
of 2007 maintain that it will take at least another eight to 
nine months before elections will be feasible, provided that 
all goes perfectly between now and then.  They cited a host 
of technical issues and questionable political will as the 
main challenges.  Although the EU initially estimated that 
the voter registration process would take no more than four 
months, the process now looks like it will take a full year, 
ending sometime in August or September.  GoG financing 
problems may continue to impede the process, especially given 
that the long-anticipated debt relief under HIPC has not 
materialized.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) USAID Technical Office Chief attended a regularly 
scheduled elections focal group meeting hosted by the UNDP on 
January 7.  The meeting tends to focus on technical 
implementation issues and is routinely attended by 
representatives from the EU Mission, France, the U.S., Japan, 
and project partners such as IFES.  The Deputy Director of 
the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Political 
Affairs (MATAP) and the Vice President of the National 
Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) participated as well. 
 USAID spoke privately with the EU/UNDP computer expert on 
the voter registration process after the formal meeting 
concluded. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Although the technical experts were still working 
on a feasible election timeline, they agreed that the voter 
registration process will not be completed by the end of 
March as initially anticipated.  The computer expert 
estimated that the process would be completed sometime in 
August or September due to funding issues and a lack of 
technical competence.  Other participants highlighted the 
numerous technical problems that have slowed the registration 
process down, including equipment failure and difficulties in 
replenishing supplies.  Experts estimated that approximately 
1.5 million people have been registered to date, or about 40% 
of the between 4.5 and 5 million eligible voters.  (COMMENT. 
MATAP announced last week that 3 million voters had been 
registered.  END COMMENT).  Experts also reported that many 
of the registrars have stopped reporting to work because they 
have not been paid.  In addition, 38 of the 924 registration 
units have not yet started operating.  Participants 
recommended conducting a full assessment on the status of the 
registration process in order to develop a realistic timeline 
for elections. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In the follow-on meeting with USAID, the computer 
expert clarified some of the technical processes required to 
complete the voter registration process.  He said that the 
process does not end with the actual registration of voters, 
which generally does not take much time.  Once the voters are 
registered, all the information must be downloaded into a 
central database, and this process can take several months. 
Once the download is completed, the registration lists need 
to be sent out to the registration districts for 
confirmation.  Only after all these steps are completed, are 
the actual voter identification cards issued.  (COMMENT.  The 
former government may not have been aware of these follow-on 
steps, which may explain why government officials kept 
maintaining that the registration process was almost 
finished.  END COMMENT). 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Aside from the voter registration process, 
participants also discussed the possibility of revising the 
constitution before elections are held.  Specific concerns 
included calls to allow for independent candidacy, further 
clarifications of the CENI's role and authority, term 
limitations, and defining the powers of the prime minister. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Following a series of meetings with various actors, 
the UNDP Country Director said that most of the political 
parties agreed that the presidential election needed to be 
held by the end of 2009, and that the parties were still 
debating whether the legislative election should be held 
concurrently or after the presidential election.  He said 
that the labor unions had not reached a common position with 
respect to elections while other civil society organizations 
are proposing a transition period of 12 to 18 months in order 
to address key issues such as constitutional reform. 
(COMMENT.  Most of the major political parties have publicly 
demanded that legislative elections be held within six 
months, and presidential elections within twelve months. 
Several party contacts have maintained the same position in 
private meetings with Poloff. See septel.  END COMMENT). 
 
 
CONAKRY 00000025  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Before ending the meeting, participants agreed to 
the following recommendations: 
  - Evaluate the status of voter registration 
  - Prepare a formal recommendation for election 
implementation, to be presented to the Election Pilot 
Committee (a GoG interagency group) 
  - Have MATAP transfer to the CENI the 9 billion GnF 
intended to pay registrars and related expenses 
 - Find a way to close the remaining funding gap for elections 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Eighteen months of delays in election organization 
have been due to a combination of factors, including a lack 
of political will on the part of key actors as well as 
technical implementation challenges.  The political will of 
the new government to hold elections is still unclear.  The 
fact that civil society itself is divided over how things 
should be done may present the CNDD with a perfect 
opportunity to willfully delay the process, or conversely, 
the continued divisions could continue to undermine efforts 
to move the process forward.  The technical experts seemed 
convinced that even in perfect conditions, the registration 
process will take several more months.  The GoG's failure to 
finance various stages of the process has slowed things down 
in the past, and may do so in the months ahead, especially 
since critical financing, namely HIPC debt relief, has not 
materialized as anticipated.  END COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC