VZCZCXRO3312
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0024/01 0091434
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091434Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3328
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0576
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000024 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SOCI ASEC GV
SUBJECT: MOST POLITICAL PARTIES CALL FOR LEGISLATIVE 
ELECTIONS BY THE END OF JUNE 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY.  Most of Guinea's major political parties 
are pushing to hold legislative elections by the end of June. 
 Sidya Toure's UFR party appears to be the main exception, 
arguing for presidential elections within the next twelve 
months.  Other than the actual timeframe, however, the 
opposition political parties seem to be agreed on other 
points, including that the transition period not exceed 
twelve months, that the government establish a National 
Transition Council, the need for a specialized court to 
address constitutional and electoral issues, and that key 
transition government officials be barred from running for 
office.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) Guinea's major political parties released two 
declarations the week of January 5 outlining their respective 
positions as to how elections should be organized, as well as 
defining certain expectations of the Council for Democracy 
and Development (CNDD).  Most parties signed the first 
declaration, which calls for the legislative election in six 
months and the presidential election in twelve months. 
Signatories included the Rally for the Guinean People (RPG - 
Alpha Conde), the Union of Guinean Democratic Forces (UFDG - 
Cellou Diallo), the Union for Progress and Renewal (UPR - 
Ousmane Bah), and the Union for Guinean Progress (UPG - Jean 
Marie Dore). 
 
¶3.  (U) The second declaration was published by the Union of 
Republican Forces (UFR - Sidya Toure) and a number of 
minority party allies.  The text of the second declaration is 
almost exactly the same as that of the first declaration, 
with the exception of the section that addresses the 
electoral calendar.  The UFR argues that the presidential 
election should take place before the legislative election. 
 
¶4.  (U) Within the text of the UFR's declaration, the 
signatories state that Guinea has a tradition of presidential 
leadership, which makes it critically important to quickly 
restore the authority of the executive position.  They note 
that legislative elections will not end the transition period 
if the CNDD continues to assume the executive role, and that 
such a situation would not bring an end to international 
sanctions.  They further argue that all other nations in the 
sub-region that have undergone a transition period following 
a coup d'etat have pursued presidential elections first. 
According to the UFR and its allies, this occurred in Mali 
and Niger, but not in Mauritania because "the absence of a 
qualified majority fragilized the Presidency."  (COMMENT. 
According to a Malian TCN employee, Mali organized local and 
legislative elections before the presidential elections in 
1992 in order to ensure that the executive could not 
influence election results.  END COMMENT). 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The UFR Secretary General told Pol LES that the UFR 
decided not to sign the first declaration because the party 
"did not want to see the Mauritanian scenario repeat itself 
in Guinea."  He added that the presidential elections need to 
take place before the legislative elections in order "to 
avoid friction between the National Assembly and the 
President."  Contact argued that if the legislative elections 
take place first, the elected Assembly would have a difficult 
time working with an executive that does not have a popular 
mandate.  (COMMENT.  This position assumes that the CNDD 
would remain in place as the executive body.  END COMMENT). 
 
¶6.  (U) On all other major points, the declarations are 
essentially the same, suggesting a general consensus of 
opinion among the political parties.  They demand that the 
transition period not exceed twelve months.  The parties call 
for the creation of a National Transition Council, which 
would be responsible for instituting "reforms indispensable 
to the transition process, and to control government action." 
 They specify that the Council would consist of 75 members - 
35 representatives from political parties, 25 representatives 
from civil society, and 15 representatives from security 
forces. 
 
¶7.  (U) The parties demand that the government complete the 
electoral registration process by the end of March 2009. 
They specify that the President of the Republic, the 
President of the CNDD, the Prime Minister, and the President 
of the National Transition Council cannot put themselves 
forth as candidates in the elections.  Any other member of 
government interested in running for office would need to 
resign from their current position at least three months 
before the election.  The parties call for the creation of a 
special court to address constitutional and electoral issues. 
 Finally, they call for the establishment of an international 
 
CONAKRY 00000024  002 OF 002 
 
 
team composed of representatives from ECOWAS, the African 
Union, and the United Nations to observe the electoral 
process. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶8.  (SBU) The fact that the declarations are similar 
indicates that the opposition political parties are working 
together to advance the electoral agenda.  The late President 
Conte's Party for Unity and Progress (PUP) did not sign 
either declaration.  Most of the parties seem to share the 
USG position that legislative elections need to be organized 
within the next six months.  Poloff plans to meet with Sidya 
Toure soon to reinforce this message as it is critical that 
all of the major parties are pushing for the same agenda with 
the CNDD.  Failure to do so may provide the CNDD and other 
actors with an opportunity to manipulate the situation in 
their favor.  Although some USG partners (including IFES and 
the UNDP) are suggesting that technical issues may push the 
elections further down the road (septel), most of the 
political parties continue to demand a six month timeframe. 
END COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC