VZCZCXRO7429
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0010/01 0150919
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 150919Z JAN 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0952
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1029

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000010 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR PHU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: IN NORTH, PRO-THAKSIN VOTE DROPS SHARPLY AS VOTES FOR 
DEMOCRATS RISE 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 79 (GOVERNING COALITION GAINS MODESTLY) 
     ¶B. CHIANG MAI 4 (THAKSIN'S HEARTLAND MAY MOBILIZE) 
     ¶C. CHIANG MAI 3 (REDSHIRTS FLEX) 
     ¶D. 08 CHIANG MAI 178 (PRO AND ANTI-THAKSIN) 
     ¶E. 08 CHIANG MAI 168 (POLITICAL TEMPERATURE) 
     ¶F. 08 BANGKOK 3529 (THAI COURT DISSOLVES) 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000010  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; please handle accordingly. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Summary and Comment 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶1.  (U) In January 11 by-elections in two northern 
constituencies, the Democrat Party (DP), the largest party in 
the new governing coalition, garnered over 40,000 more votes 
than it did in the 2007 national elections in the same two 
districts.  Despite this increase, the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai 
Party (PT) lost only one of the two contested seats in these 
long-time Thaksin strongholds, though its own vote total dropped 
by about 82,000 when compared with the 2007 election results. 
Neither side called for a re-count or reported major 
irregularities.  The Puea Thai candidate who lost has been a key 
organizer of pro-Thaksin "redshirt" protests in and around 
Chiang Mai.  See Ref A for a recap of the nationwide results and 
their significance. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Comment: The results in the two races may indicate 
voter discontent with sometimes violent tactics of the north's 
pro-Thaksin redshirts (Refs C, D and E), including their 
intimidation of former Prime Minister and DP advisor Chuan 
Leekpai in Lampang the week before election day.  It is also 
possible that the Democrat Party and its coalition partners had 
agreed beforehand not to run against each other in these and 
other constituencies.  For instance, coalition partner Chat Thai 
Pattana did not contest the seat in Lamphun Province, whereas 
the DP did not contest seats in the Northeast.  In addition, the 
court-ordered dissolution of the pro-Thaksin People's Power 
Party that necessitated the by-elections left pro-Thaksin forces 
without experienced candidates.   Disarray at Puea Thai's top 
level and the resulting lack of a unified campaign strategy, as 
well as poor campaign organization, also hurt the party's 
candidates,  a senior Puea Thai MP told us.  End Summary and 
Comment. 
 
------------------------- 
DP Wins Handily in Lamphun 
------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The by-election in Lamphun Province necessitated by 
the December 2008 dissolution of the then-governing, pro-Thaksin 
People's Power Party and two of its coalition partners (Ref F) 
saw three key contenders enter the race for a seat that had been 
held by the PPP.  These contenders were: 
 
-- from Puea Thai (successor party to the PPP), the political 
newcomer Phetcharawat Wattanaphongsirikul, a key organizer of 
the Rak Chiang Mai 51 pro-Thaksin redshirt group (Ref D), and a 
person more closely connected with neighboring Chiang Mai 
Province than with Lamphun. 
 
-- from the Democrat Party, a native son who previously had 
served as Lamphun's mayor and an elected member of Lamphun's 
Provincial Council. 
 
-- from Puea Paen Din (whose members have currently split their 
loyalties between the Democrat Party and Puea Thai), a veteran 
politician who had represented Lamphun as an MP in former PM 
Thaksin's now-defunct Thai Rak Thai Party from 2001-06. 
(Comment:  According to a senior Puea Thai politician, this 
candidate is believed to have split the pro-Thaksin vote and 
possibly cost PT's Phetcharawat a victory). 
 
¶4.  (U) The race was not close.  The Democrat Party's victorious 
candidate garnered over 102,000 votes, almost 15,000 more than 
the top DP vote-getter had received in the same race in 2007. 
Puea Thai's Phetcharawat finished second, with over 93,000 votes 
(about 42,000 less than the winning PPP candidate had received 
in 2007), and the Puea Paen Din candidate came in a distant 
third, with just over 17,000 votes.  The Democrat Party's 
victory was a political comeback in that the pro-Thaksin party 
had won all three of the province's parliamentary seats in 2005 
and 2007, after winning two to DP's one in the 2001 elections. 
 
-------------------- 
PT Holds Serve in Lampang 
-------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Although it garnered some 40,000 votes less than the top 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000010  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
PPP vote-getter in the 2007 election, Puea Thai held its seat in 
Lampang, where the pro-Thaksin party has swept all five of the 
province's seats in each of the last three elections since 2001. 
Despite the lack of experience of its 26-year-old candidate, PT 
secured over 107,000 votes.  The Democrat Party candidate 
finished a close second with nearly 104,000 votes, a significant 
improvement over his own fourth-place showing in 2007 when he 
garnered just under 78,000 votes. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Atmospherics and Afterthoughts 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Taking the Lamphun and Lampang races together, the 
Democrat Party garnered over 41,000 votes more than its top 
vote-getters did in December 2007 in the same two 
constituencies.  In comparison, Puea Thai's grand total was 
about 82,000 votes lower than in 2007.  (Note:  This despite the 
fact that total ballots cast in the two constituencies declined 
from about 562,000 in 2007 to 424,000 in 2009, when fewer 
candidates ran).  According to local Election Commission 
officials, voter turn-out was 77% in Lamphun and 68% in Lampang, 
down from the corresponding 2007 figures of 89% and 73%.  The 
Lampang Election Commission did not report receiving any 
complaints of irregularities.  In Lamphun, written complaints 
submitted had to do with negative campaigning and the 
distribution of materials to voters, which an Election 
Commission official characterized as "not serious."  We note, 
however, comments by an Election Commission official in the 
press on January 14 stating that the Commission was not yet 
prepared to certify the Lamphun and Lampang results, though it 
did certify results in 20 of the 29 by-election contests 
nationwide. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Contacts close to senior Puea Thai figures told us 
that the party did not view the January by-elections as 
critical, as it expects the lower house of Parliament will be 
dissolved in the not-too-distant future.  This may explain why 
the party appears not to have put its entire machinery behind 
Phetcharawat in Lamphun.  Another Lamphun contact opined that 
many pro-Thaksin voters felt "insulted" that Puea Thai fielded a 
candidate from outside the province, and therefore decided to 
"teach PT a lesson."  Separately, an NGO contact in Lampang told 
us that the urban population and the well-educated in rural 
areas there want to see real change, and to move beyond the 
politics of red-yellow confrontation.  These voters are hopeful 
that the Democrat Party-led coalition can bring this change 
about.  (See Ref B for more on this theme). 
 
¶8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok. 
MORROW