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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000086 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2029 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ'S CAMPAIGN: I AM THE REVOLUTION 
 
REF: A) CARACAS 00048 B) CARACAS 00044 
 
CARACAS 00000086  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, 
FOR REASON 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  Chavez has kicked his "Yes" campaign for 
the February 15 referendum to remove term limits into high 
gear.  His message, which has saturated media from all sides 
of the political spectrum, is that he is the only leader 
capable of safeguarding and continuing his "revolutionary" 
projects.  The President is employing his tried-and-true 
polarizing campaign technique of framing the opposition as 
dangerous US-backed coup-plotters seeking to topple his 
government and eliminate his social programs.  He is also 
equating an opposition victory with the onset of political 
violence, even civil war.  Chavez's "Yes" campaign is aimed 
at motivating and mobilizing his base, which he calculates is 
larger than the opposition's.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------ 
ALL CHAVEZ, ALL THE TIME 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C)  Chavez has dominated the airwaves since announcing 
his amendment proposal in early December 2008, using nearly 
daily mandatory "cadena" broadcasts to campaign for the 
safeguarding of his "revolution."  Much of his seven and a 
half hour annual address to the National Assembly January 13 
was dedicated to assuring Venezuelans that the economy is in 
good shape and will remain so (reftel a).  The PSUV has taken 
out a variety of newspaper advertisements extolling Chavez's 
alleged successes, with the motto "expand your right to 
choose."  One advertisement reads "ten years ago a leader 
appeared who began to solve what appeared impossible: health, 
education, employment, democracy.  Can you imagine what 
Venezuela will be like with ten more years?"  At a 
pro-government forum held by the School of Venezuelan 
Planning, Chavista commentators argued that the approval of 
the amendment would actually boost the Venezuelan economy. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Chavez has sought to paint the opposition as 
plotting to overthrow him, a tactic he has used repeatedly in 
previous campaigns to energize his base.  In a half-page 
January 17 article in the pro-government tabloid Vea, PSUV 
Vice-President Alberto Muller Rojas echoed Chavez's earlier 
attacks against several high-profile opposition leaders who 
he accused of having met in Puerto Rico to plot the overthrow 
of the government (reftel b).  He also claimed that the 
opposition was directly controlled or associated with 
"factions external to the country" that seek to destabilize 
Venezuela.  Chavez is also accusing the opposition, 
particularly university students, of fomenting political 
violence.  His first Alo Presidente of 2009 featured 
continuous references to opposition coup plotting in Puerto 
Rico as well as stark warning that a vote against the 
referendum proposal was tantamount to support for civil war. 
 
¶4.  (C)  An ad hoc commission named by the National Electoral 
Council (CNE) has been tasked with reviewing all campaign 
material before it is aired on television, which the 
opposition claims is being used to censor their "No" 
campaign.  The same tactic was employed during the November 
2007 referendum campaign.  CNE president Tibisay Lucena 
announced January 16 that the election day would be extended 
from 4pm to 6pm.  National Assembly Vice President Jose 
Albornoz contended that the extra hours would prevent 
"misunderstandings." 
 
-------------- 
PETITION DRIVE 
-------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  The PSUV has set up "Yes" promotion tents, or "red 
spots," throughout the country to register signatures in 
favor of the amendment proposal.  As of January 16, the party 
claimed to have collected almost seven million signatures. 
While likely an exaggeration, by way of comparison, the PSUV 
received about 5.5 million votes in the November 2008 state 
and local elections.  AN president Celia Flores announced 
January 15 that the number of signatures indicates that "the 
people once more have chosen the path of the Bolivarian 
revolution." 
 
¶6.  (C)  Chavez has also apparently compelled third-country 
residents of Venezuela to campaign on his behalf.  A Cuban 
medical doctor who works with the Barrio Adentro social 
mission told consular officials during a visa interview that 
she and her mission colleagues had been asked to spend their 
afternoons going door to door to collect signatures for the 
referendum.  The doctor emphasized that they normally face 
considerable pressure to see as many patients as possible 
each day.  Their redirected efforts suggest that Chavez is 
using every resource at his disposal to push for the 
referendum, placing its success above even the efficacy of 
the social missions.  The government-run Bolivarian News 
Agency reported January 16 that the food subsidy "Mercal" 
mission in Barinas State -- where his brother, Adan, is 
governor -- has been campaigning on behalf of the "Yes" vote. 
 PSUV spokesman Luis Veraza in Barinas pledged that the 
amendment "would guarantee the continuity of the revolution 
and all of its social programs." 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
CHAVEZ ASKS "TRUE" STUDENT ACTIVISTS TO MARCH 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  Chavez has pushed back against the "No" student 
movement by calling for "true" university activists to take 
to the streets in favor of the referendum.  Via cadena, the 
President condemned the several hundred students who 
protested throughout Caracas January 14, showing video of a 
fire allegedly set by student activists in the Avila region 
outside of Caracas.  He asserted that the protesters largely 
come from rich families and private universities, and are 
being used like "cannon fodder" by unnamed forces who are 
behind a plan to "burn down" Venezuela.  Chavez called on the 
"capitalist" university rectors to reign in the protesters, 
threatening that "there are laws (against violent protest) 
and you must respond before them."  Nevertheless, standoffs 
between police and students have resulted in a handful of 
injuries.  Opposition students faced police forces and tear 
gas as well in a larger march January 20. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8.  (C)  Chavez has maintained his almost daily barrage of 
hours-long cadenas since announcing his amendment proposal in 
early December.  His apparent strategy is to convince voters 
who might otherwise be uncertain about removing term limits 
that his continuance in power at least until 2019 is 
necessary to protect the social missions and the GBRV's 
claims of improvements in the health and economic sectors. 
Chavez is also seeking to invigorate his base by reviving 
accusations of coup-plotting among the opposition, and 
playing up "attacks" by privileged student activists with the 
insinuation that Chavez is also the guarantor of peace.  The 
students -- widely perceived as the group with the most 
legitimacy in Venezuela -- have long been a thorn in Chavez's 
side.  Intimidating them into silence or linking them to 
violence would have the added benefit of potentially 
diminishing their credibility with the Venezuelan public. 
The inflammatory rhetoric exhorting his supporters to "take 
all actions necesary" is also increasing the risk of 
widespread violence. 
 
¶9.  (C)  Chavez's petition drive of the PSUV faithful could 
prove useful beyond the February 15 referendum.  The numbers, 
even if exaggerated, could put a damper on potential 
opposition plans to call for a recall referendum mid-way 
through Chavez's current administration, which is August 
¶2009.  End Comment. 
CAULFIELD