VZCZCXRO7562
PP RUEHAST RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHEG #0074 0151155
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151155Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1368
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA PRIORITY

UNCLAS CAIRO 000074 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIAG (AMBASSADOR LANGE AND DAVID WINN), DEPT PASS TO AID 
(DENNIS CARROLL) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO KFLU KSTH PGOV ECON KSCA EAGR EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S CHILDREN CONTINUE TO SURVIVE BIRD FLU 
 
REF: 08 CAIRO 02445 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary and comment: Egypt's Ministry of Health and 
Population (MOHP) has announced Egypt's 52nd human avian influenza 
(AI) case: a 21-month-old girl from Kerdasa in the Sixth of October 
Governorate.  The girl is in stable condition at Manshia Al Bakry 
Hospital in Cairo.  This case marks the continuation of a trend: 
Egyptian children recover from AI at a remarkable rate. To date, for 
example, there have been twenty-four confirmed pre-teen H5N1 cases 
in Egypt.  Twenty-three of them, including all twenty-one of those 
under the age of ten, survived.  Egypt's teenage and adult AI 
victims, conversely, do not fare well -- 80% have died. 
¶2. (SBU) Egypt's latest AI victim, the second here in less than a 
month, was admitted to Imbaba Fever Hospital on January 10, 2009, 
suffering from high temperature, vomiting and diarrhea. Her doctors 
administered Tamiflu when they suspected she might be afflicted with 
AI.  They transferred her to Manshia Al Bakry on January 12th. Both 
recent victims apparently had contact with dead poultry.  The last 
two cases mark the end of a seven month respite from AI (ref). 
¶3. (SBU) Comment: While Egypt's children have done remarkably well 
in surviving AI, older victims do not fare as well: twenty-two out 
of twenty-eight older AI victims have died.  Data elsewhere suggests 
there may be some relationship between age and AI survival, but the 
AI mortality rates in Egypt -- 0% for those under 10, 4% for all 
pre-teens and 80% for the older AI victims -- seem to be extreme, 
perhaps suggesting some unique, but as yet undetermined, local 
influences. 
Scobey