P 251106Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1444
INFO HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
AFSAC WRIGHT PATTERSON AFB OH PRIORITY
HQ USAF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS CAIRO 000123 
 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL MASS MARR EG
 
SUBJECT: EGYPT:  COUNTRY TEAM ASSESSMENT FOR THE 
PROCUREMENT OF TWENTY-FOUR (24) F-16 BLOCK 50/52 AIRCRAFT 
TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT OF EGYPT NATIONAL DEFENSE MISSION 
 
REF: EGYPTIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE LETTER OF REQUEST 
     (08-171) FOR LETTER OF OFFER AND ACCEPTANCE 
     (LOA) DATED 25 SEPT 08. 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) Description.  REF A is the GOE request to procure 
twenty-four (24) F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft to support their 
national defense mission.  The GOE long-term plan is to 
procure a total of forty-five (45) F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft 
with twenty-four (24) of those being procured at this time 
and twenty-one (21) additional aircraft being requested in 
the future when funding permits.  Although the aircraft 
procured will be Block 50 or Block 52 depending upon the 
engine that the EAF decides to procure, the aircraft will 
have the software set to comply with Egypt,s non-CISMOA 
status.  This limits the full capability of the aircraft 
until the EAF is authorized any increased capability in 
accordance with a signed CISMOA.  At that point, the software 
can be reset to provide the appropriate CISMOA-compliant 
capability.  The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a compact, 
multi-role fighter aircraft.  It is highly maneuverable and 
has proven itself in air-to-air combat and air-to-surface 
attack.  The F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft provides a 
high-performance weapon system for the United States and 
allied nations.  The Egyptian Air Force currently operates a 
fleet of 195 F-16 Block 15/32/40 aircraft.  The F-16 Block 
50/52 is the latest mass-produced common configuration F-16 
aircraft available for procurement and is currently in use by 
the United States Air Force. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Reason the purchaser desires the articles or 
services.  The procurement of these aircraft is desired by 
Egypt for three main reasons: 
 
¶A.  These aircraft will help modernize the EAF fighter 
aircraft fleet. 
¶B.  These new F-16s will potentially replace an estimated 180 
non-flyable MiG-21 airframes and an unspecified number of 
non-flyable F-7 airframes according to sources within the 
EAF.  C.  The procurement will replace 24 EAF F-16s that have 
been destroyed in mishaps since Egypt began operating the 
F-16. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) How the articles or services would affect the 
recipient,s force structure.  The EAF originally procured 
220 F-16s over the past 26 years, but has lost 25 through 
attrition.  The 24 requested F-16s would backfill 24 of those 
lost aircraft.  The EAF MiG-21 and F-7 fleets require 
replacement due to their age and diminishing operational 
readiness.  This new aircraft will replace a minimum 
estimated total of 180 of those aircraft.  There will be no 
change to the existing mission and primary roles of the F-16. 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) How the articles or services would contribute to 
both the U.S. and the recipient,s defense/security goals. 
The F-16 Block 50/52 will enable the EAF to defend its 
people, borders, the Suez Canal and the resource of the Nile 
River from enemy attack.  It will offer US-Egyptian 
interoperability opportunities that are not available in the 
MiG-21 or F-7.  The procurement would revitalize the EAF 
fighter fleet so that the EAF may focus on moving forward as 
a US ally through US-based training, joint exercises and 
toward joint operations with the US and its other allies. 
The current state of the EAF fighter fleet causes the 
Egyptian government to pour precious manpower, money, and 
resources into the constant struggle of keeping their aging 
fleet of MiG-21s and F-7s flying.  The new procurement would 
enable the EAF to shift personnel, funding and resources from 
a rapidly diminishing fleet of obsolescence-prone aircraft to 
a weapon system with a great capability that will be 
operational when needed. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Justification for the type and quantity of articles 
or services requested.  The F-16 Block 50/52 is the only 
logical, cost-effective choice for modernizing the EAF 
fighter aircraft fleet.  The EAF currently operates 195 F-16s 
and has operated the F-16 with support from the United States 
for 26 years.  The EAF has developed wide-scale in-country 
F-16-specific maintenance/logistics support and has an 
in-country F-16 Flying Training Unit where new pilots are 
trained to fly the F-16.  The EAF has a corps of pilots, 
technicians and engineers who are already familiar with the 
F-16 at the operational and intermediate levels.  The F-16 
Block 50/52 aircraft are currently in the U.S. Air Force 
inventory and long-term sustainability through the U.S. 
logistics system is a distinct advantage.  The EAF has 
in-country depot capability to repair over 300 different F-16 
parts.  Most of these parts are compatible with the EAF 
version F-16 Block 50/52.  The EAF has in-country depot-level 
aircraft modification capability through the F-16 Falcon-UP 
modification program.  This program and capability enables 
the EAF to significantly increase the service-life of their 
current F-16 fleet and any subsequent F-16 procurements.  The 
EAF has established in-country partial depot capability to 
overhaul certain F-16 engine sections and this capability is 
upgradeable to support the F-16 Block 50/52.  Egypt 
continually upgrades its avionics testing and repair 
capability to keep pace with the advancing technology in the 
F-16 aircraft.  Egypt uses the US logistics/supply system to 
complement its in-country F-16 support efforts.  Egypt 
participates in all USAF Technical Coordination Groups so 
that they receive the latest information available on 
technical issues and advances related to the F-16. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Combatant Commander's concurrence to the 
introduction of a new war-fighting capability to the nation 
or region.  Combatant Commander's concurrence will be 
provided separately. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Anticipated reactions of the neighboring nations. 
The procurement of these additional F-16 aircraft is not 
expected to influence the regional balance of power or cause 
negative reactions from any of Egypt's neighbors.  The EAF 
wishes to procure a unique version of the F-16 Block 50/52 
that will be capable of firing the medium-range AIM-7 Sparrow 
radar-guided missiles that are currently in the EAF 
inventory.  The EAF version of the F-16 Block 50/52 will 
definitely be able to fire the short-range AIM-9 Sidewinder 
heat-seeking missile and will have a 20mm cannon.  The 
potential exists for the aircraft to be configured with the 
AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) 
should the US Government decide to release those munitions to 
Egypt in the future.  This new F-16 procurement introduces a 
limited increase of technology to Egypt, but does not 
introduce new technology to the region.  Several regional 
allies have recently purchased similar airframes through the 
Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program.  These assets will 
enhance Egypt,s ability to participate in combined regional 
training exercises.  This procurement would not impact 
Israel's qualitative military edge. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Assessment of the nation's ability to account for, 
safeguard, operate, maintain, and support the articles. The 
GOE has demonstrated the intent and ability to protect 
sensitive, classified military technology over an extended 
period.  Egypt signed a General Security of Information 
Agreement with the US and, as a customer, has purchased and 
protected the sensitive technology of other U.S. weapon 
systems.  The EAF has an in-country F-16 pilot training 
school and they develop their corps of F-16 pilots through 
that school.  The EAF has significant depot-level capability 
that enables them to repair over 300 F-16 parts, modify F-16 
aircraft to extend the service life of the aircraft, and 
overhaul or repair F-16 engine subassemblies within the 
country of Egypt.  The EAF works closely with the US 
Government for complementary logistics support of their F-16 
fleet.  Although the EAF has an F-16 engine management 
program that is lacking as compared the USAF engine 
management program, the EAF is making good progress with the 
US engine program offices to improve their overall engine 
management capability.  Egypt has met all previous F-16 
security and End Use Monitoring (EUM) requirements. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Training required either in-country or in the United 
States and anticipated reactions resulting from the presence 
of U.S. trainers in country.  Specialized training on the 
F-16 Block 50/52 under this new procurement would be 
performed in-part by an in-country US military Extended 
Training Services Support (ETSS) team.  Each of the previous 
4 EAF F-16 procurement increments was supported by an ETSS 
team of 10 or more personnel.  There is currently an ETSS 
team assigned to one of the EAF F-16 bases as part of the 
procurement of the most recent increment of EAF F-16s.  ETSS 
teams have been a part of the Egyptian community for 26 years 
with only positive impact to the country and region.  Also, a 
team of trainers from the prime contractor and subcontractors 
would likely be sent to Egypt to augment the ETSS until 
initial training of the EAF is complete.  The ETSS would 
remain and provide the remaining longer-term support.  No 
required training outside of Egypt related to this 
procurement is anticipated at this time. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Possible impact of any in-country U.S. presence 
that might be required as a result of providing the article. 
U.S. Government civilian personnel and U.S. contractors are 
permanently assigned to Egypt to support the current EAF F-16 
program.  Those US positions have been filled for 26 years. 
There is an anticipated plus-up of US personnel in-country 
that would be necessary to support the arrival, bed-down and 
support of the increased number of F-16s resulting from this 
procurement.  A majority of the plus-up personnel will be on 
temporary duty status and a small minority of the plus-up 
personnel will likely be required to remain in Egypt 
permanently.  There is no expected negative impact that would 
result from these additional Americans being in Egypt. 
Additionally, US Government teams and US contractor teams 
routinely travel to Egypt to support the various US-provided 
weapon systems of the Egyptian military including the current 
F-16 fleet.  There is no expected negative impact that would 
result from the continued presence of these Americans in 
Egypt. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Source of financing and the economic impact of the 
proposed acquisition.  Egypt plans to procure these 24 F-16 
Block 50/52 aircraft and all related training, support and 
infrastructure improvements as a total package utilizing 
Foreign Military Financing.  The Egyptians will only accept 
the offer for the procurement if the amortization of 
financing meets their established budgeted payment schedule. 
In order for the new aircraft to fire AIM-7 Sparrow as 
requested, a modification of the avionics package is 
required.  This will affect the long range funding of this 
program and other large procurement programs currently in 
work.  In addition, this system engineering would have to be 
reversed if the AIM-120 AMRAAM is purchased in the future. 
Egypt is not planning to use national funds to pay for any 
portion of this procurement.  The economic impact of the 
proposed acquisition on the US is expected to infuse $2 
billion into the US economy over the acquisition period. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Human rights considerations relevant to the 
proposed acquisition.  None. 
 
¶13. (SBU) A plan for end-use monitoring for sensitive and 
advanced warfighting technology and the SAO,s plan for 
compliance verification.  The Office of Military Cooperation 
(OMC) Egypt has a robust Golden Sentry Program.  The Golden 
Sentry Program representative and Security Assistance Officer 
(SAO) responsible for the program will coordinate for the 
review and maintenance of required documentation.  All 
parties will maintain serial number lists of all components 
within the inventory or transferred and will conduct the 
mandated inspections as required.  This coordination will 
ensure that historical copies of all EUM inspection results 
and customer,s physical security and accountability control 
plans remain on file.  The Egyptian military currently has 
195 F-16s in country.  Egypt has maintained accountability 
and security of these aircraft without unauthorized loss, 
theft, or access to date.  The GOE has expressed the 
willingness to meet U.S. guidelines for accountability and 
security of these new aircraft, and the Office of Military 
Cooperation will conduct End Use Monitoring of all required 
components if this request is approved. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Recommendation whether the USG should approve 
transfer of the article and justification.  The country team 
supports USG approval of the GOE procurement of twenty-four 
(24) F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft.  This procurement will 
replace aircraft lost to attrition and will replace fighter 
aircraft that are beyond their useful life.  It would also 
encourage the demilitarization of older aircraft.  This 
procurement will dissuade Egypt from using national funds to 
buy fighters from another country.  It will also increase the 
percentage of US-built equipment in the Egyptian inventory. 
The procurement may be seen as encouragement for Egypt to 
sign a CISMOA as well.  Although release of the AIM-120 
AMRAAM to Egypt was by no means offered, promised or 
guaranteed to the GOE, MOD or EAF with this procurement, this 
procurement would create the possibility for Egypt to seek 
the AIM-120 should they sign a CISMOA in the future.  The 
AIM-7 Sparrow capability currently requested is an option for 
this purchase; however AIM-120 capability is far superior and 
could be added with engineering modifications assuming a 
CISMOA is in place.  We support the sale to the degree that 
MOD can afford the new equipment and still fund the follow-on 
support of all current Egyptian military programs.  We 
support this sale if the cost does not jeopardize other 
important future procurements.  The US Government is in a 
position to build a stronger relationship with the Government 
of Egypt by enabling the GOE to modernize its fighter 
aircraft fleet with the US-built and US-supported F-16 Block 
50/52 aircraft.  This is a coordinated mission position. 
SCOBEY 
 
 
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