P 081517Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2216
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
NSC WASHDC
DIA WASHDC
CIA WASHDC
USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000008 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CA: K. ERTAS AND L. LOCHMAN 
STATE FOR EUR/RA E. MCCONAHA 
STATE FOR EEB/ESC/IEC/EPC L. WRIGHT 
USEU FOR R. FROST 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG ECON EIND LO
SUBJECT: GAS EMERGENCY IN SLOVAKIA 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The GoS declared a state of emergency as a result of 
the Russian gas shutdown early on January 7.  Gas 
distribution to home customers will have limited availability. 
Several big companies, including automakers and their suppliers, 
have already shut down production, while others have cut back. 
At the emergency level, Slovakia has 70 days of reserves 
available, though there may be a significant shortfall in the 
system's ability to meet demand if the cold weather 
continues.  Pressure problems may also cause electrical 
blackouts in eastern provinces.  The Fico Government has 
delivered protest notes to both the Ukrainian and Russian 
ambassadors and appears not to be taking its usual strong 
pro-Russia position in the crisis.  End summary. 
 
STATE OF EMERGENCY 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) The Slovak Government declared a state of emergency 
yesterday as natural gas supplies from Russia shut down 
completely early on January 7, following a significant 
decrease in gas supplies over the weekend. The Ministry of 
Economy called a crisis group meeting and has required all 
large industrial gas users (those consuming over 60,000 cubic 
meters per year) to limit consumption to the minimum required 
for safety purposes.  Approximately 1,000 companies in 
Slovakia are affected by this, including the economically 
critical auto manufacturers and US Steel Kosice.  Residential 
customers and essential plants such as schools and hospitals 
have no restrictions, as is true of central municipal heating 
plants, the primary source of heat for most households and 
smaller businesses. 
 
¶3. (U) According to Economy Minister Lubomir Jahnatek, 
Slovakia has gas reserves totaling 2 billion cubic meters, 
enough to guarantee gas supplies to households, hospitals, 
and schools for 70 days under the emergency measures.  The 
average daily non-industrial gas consumption of Slovakia is 
approximately 23 millions cubic meters (mcm), though the 
current cold snap has driven the rate far above normal at 30 
mcm.  The current pipeline system connection with the gas 
reserves technically allows only about 24 mcm per day to be 
delivered, so there is the possibility of a significant gas 
deficit in the absence of any outside supply. 
 
TECHNICAL PROBLEMS THREATEN EAST 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Apart from the lack of gas, there is also a technical 
problem with inadequate pressure in the pipeline system as a 
result of the shutdown of supplies from Ukraine via the 
eastern Slovakia transfer station at Kapusany.  Gas 
distributor SPP has already sealed off both ends of the 
pipeline system in order to preserve pressure within the 
country, but the slow response of corporate customers to the 
emergency decree has reduced pressure to near the minimum.  A 
constant minimum pressure throughout the system is necessary 
to move gas from reserves in western Slovakia to users in the 
eastern districts. 
 
¶5. (U) Another potentially serious technical problem 
threatens the electricity grid, which includes thermal plants 
running on natural gas, particularly in the East.  Further 
decreases in pipeline pressure may endanger gas deliveries 
eastward, and in the worst case this may result in electrical 
blackouts in that part of the country.  The Ministry of 
Economy has just added the state-owned electrical 
transmission system operator SEPS to its crisis team to 
prioritize gas deliveries to power plants and to look into 
alternative fuel supplies for plants that can use them. 
Prime Minister Fico has publicly floated the option of 
restarting the Jaslovske Bohunice nuclear power plant, which 
was shut down on 31 December as part of Slovakia's EU 
accession agreement. 
 
ECONOMIC IMPACT, DIPLOMATIC ACTION 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The economic impact of the emergency measures has 
been immediate: automakers Kia and PSA Citroen-Peugeot have 
halted production, as have tire manufacturer Continental and 
a host of large auto industry suppliers.  U.S. Steel Kosice 
has cut production across the board, though it has not 
stopped production altogether.  (For technical reasons, 
stopping and restarting steel production is extremely 
expensive and time-consuming.)  The reaction among 
manufacturers has been muted; as some have told us privately, 
the economic crisis has had many of them looking for ways to 
cut back production, and the gas crisis has given them a 
reason and a culprit. 
 
¶7. (U) The Slovak Government has taken some measured 
diplomatic action.  Prime Minister Robert Fico has stated an 
unwillingness to become "an arbiter of commercial disputes 
between gas companies in Russia and Ukraine," and the 
government has delivered notes of protest to the Russian and 
Ukrainian ambassadors here.  Fico has reportedly spoken with 
PM Putin and is scheduled to speak with PM Tymoshenko today. 
The Ministry of Economy says its crisis action team is in 
constant contact with counterparts in Ukraine, Russia, and 
downstream countries. 
 
COMMENT: NO PRO-RUSSIAN POSTURING 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Fico's normally strong pro-Russia stance on a 
variety of international issues is often interpreted here as 
a ploy to curry favor with its sole energy supplier.  In the 
Ukraine gas crisis of 2006, a number of government officials 
opined that the crisis was Ukraine's fault or even a 
concoction of the U.S. and EU.  We are relieved to see Fico 
spreading the public blame between Ukraine and Russia, where 
he might have been expected to side with the Russians.  It is 
yet to be seen whether this represents a realization of the 
precariousness of Slovakia's total energy dependence on 
Russia and Ukraine, let alone a determination to do something 
about it. 
 
 
OBSITNIK