VZCZCXRO3190
PP RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHEK #0068/01 0230640
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230640Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1682
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2815
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 0091
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 3210
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2596
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO BRUSSELS BE
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000068 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN AND SCA/PPD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO KG
SUBJECT:  Kyrgyz Media Reaction to CENTCOM CDR Petraeus's Visit 
 
BISHKEK 00000068  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: General Petraeus's January 17-20 visit to 
Kyrgyzstan has been front-page news this week.  Media reaction to 
the General's visit and his January 19 press conference has been 
closely intertwined with rumors in the press that the Government of 
Kyrgyzstan plans to expel Manas Air Base.  Some newspapers put a 
familiar, negative spin on Petraeus's visit, saying that he came to 
Kyrgyzstan only to save Manas Air Base and listing past incidents 
involving the Base.  Some agreed with General Petraeus's 
characterization that the rumors in the press about the Kyrgyz 
Government possibly requesting the Base to be withdrawn may be 
"Central Asian Negotation."  Two major newspapers made arguments 
supporting the Base and praising the Base's role in the war on 
terrorism.  End Summary. 
 
SAME OLD ANTI-BASE ARGUMENTS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Independent Russian-language weekly "Megapolis" wrote an 
article entitled "We Can't Get Rid of Them."  The article accuses 
General Petraeus of unilaterally declaring that the Base will stay 
here "because I said so."  The article says the purpose of the Base 
is "to expand the U.S. sphere of influence and empire."  The article 
includes a list of incidents involving the Base, such as an incident 
in which American serviceman hit two women with his car in 2002, 
alleged rapes (Comment: this is the first time the Embassy has heard 
of the rape allegations), the 2006 incident involving the 
disappearance of an Air Force Major, and the 2006 shooting of a 
Kyrgyz citizen by a U.S. airman. 
 
"CENTRAL ASIAN NEGOTIATION" 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Independent, pseudo-intellectual Russian-language weekly 
"Obshestvenniy Rating" reprinted an article from the Russian press, 
quoting a specialist from the Central Asian and Kazakhstan Institute 
in Russia, Andrey Grozin.  Grozin agrees with General Petraeus's 
characterization that there is some Central Asian-style negotiating 
taking place around Manas Air Base.  Grozin says, "Practically every 
year Kyrgyzstan is able to get more money for the Air Base.  Under 
Akayev, the Kyrgyz got the modest sum of less than 10 million 
dollars but now, according to official reports, the Americans pay 51 
million dollars every year plus grants in different areas, including 
humanitarian assistance.  In total, the Base provides benefits to 
the Kyrgyz Republic to the tune of 100 million dollars or more." 
Further, he says that the U.S. "buys off" Kyrgyz officials, "not 
with suitcases of money, but with technical assistance, training, 
and trips."  He concludes that the Kyrgyz Republic is neither 
"anti-Russian nor anti-American," but rather opportunistic in taking 
advantage of both Russian and American assistance.  Another 
independent commentator in the same newspaper wrote that he 
disagreed with the characterization that these negotiations are 
"Central Asian methods of negotiation."  Instead, he characterized 
the negotiations as "classic diplomacy." 
 
BAKIYEV GIVING HIMSELF PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Pro-Russian "Delo Nomer" wrote that whenever talk turns to 
expelling the Base, a high-ranking American comes to Bishkek on a 
"long-planned" visit.  The author asks, "If it is not true that the 
Kyrgyz Government wants to close Manas Air Base, why are we not 
hearing it from the Kyrgyz Government?  Who is the boss of our 
country [if they send an American to give us this news]?"  The 
article notes that President Bakiyev, unlike the presidents of 
Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, preferred not to meet with General 
Petraeus.  The article speculates that President Bakiyev wanted to 
give himself "room to maneuver" so he could tell the Russians "I 
didn't promise anyone anything."  Noting that President Bakiyev's 
trip to Moscow, originally planned for January 16, was pushed back 
to February, the author implies that the presidential administration 
may still be preparing documents to expel the Base: "The President's 
administration says the reason for the trip being postponed is that 
 
BISHKEK 00000068  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
they need to 'prepare some documents.'" 
 
"BASE PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN WAR ON TERROR" 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The local supplement to the Russian newspaper 
"Komsomolskaya Pravda" speculated that President Bakiyev's former 
Chief-of-Staff, Medet Sadyrkulov, resigned because he was unwilling 
to expel Manas Air Base.  However, the author says that the 
President can easily find a "careerist" who would be willing to sign 
the papers to expel the Base.  The article lists past, negative 
incidents involving the Base, but says, "It's important to remember, 
though, that Manas, without exaggeration, plays an important role in 
the worldwide war against terrorism.  Of course, it's a pity that 
individual scoundrels in stripes ruin the general presentation of a 
noble and complicated mission.  But in the end, we have a common 
enemy.  Remember the bloody events eight years ago involving 
extremists in the south of our country.  This happened, in fact, 
when the Taliban in Afghanistan were at their strongest.  Do you 
really want the Taliban to return to power?  We can't forget that 
eighty percent of the international coalition's efforts in 
Afghanistan have been concentrated on humanitarian and social 
programs: building hospitals, schools, power stations, roads, and 
creating jobs, etc.  In other words, the soldiers there are busier 
restoring peaceful life -- not war.  And who knows, maybe 
strengthening their contingent by 30,000 troops will finally, and 
forever, defeat extremists.  And then there can be talks about 
closing Manas Air Base." ( Comment: The author, Azamat Tynaev, 
participated in a week-long media embed in Afghanistan in June 2008, 
which was arranged by the public affairs sections of Manas Air Base 
and the Embassy.) 
 
"MANAS IS IN EVERYONE'S INTEREST" 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The largest daily newspaper, independent Russian-language 
"Vecherniy Bishkek" published an article with the headline, "Neither 
Kyrgyzstan nor Russia would benefit from Manas Air Base Withdrawal." 
 The article provides background about the Base and situation in 
Afghanistan, and says:  "The American Base at Manas was created 
owing to Vladimir Putin's mediation between Washington and Bishkek. 
[This was revealed a long time ago by then Russian Defense Minister 
and current Deputy Chief of the Russian Government, Sergey Ivanov.] 
It would be good to remind those who keep stirring up odd excitement 
and saying that the Base is a stumbling block between the Kremlin 
and the White House.  And that, reportedly, capricious Kyrgyzstan is 
now thinking which superpower to drop the handkerchief to and for 
how much.  Amid the rumors about the impending withdrawal of the 
contingent harped on by Russian media, the most paradoxical thing is 
that Moscow should be the first one to be interested in keeping the 
Pentagon outpost on our territory. [. . . ] So, be sure, nobody 
would even think of closing the Base, especially having the 
information provided by General Petraeus.  He said that last year, 
the number of terrorist attacks doubled.  There is nothing left but 
to dispose with them with doubled force." 
 
WACKY THEORIES PERSIST 
---------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Anti-American Russian-language daily, "Beliy Parus," a 
newspaper which is known for its wacky theories, speculated that the 
talk about Manas Air Base was really just a smokescreen to distract 
from how the Kyrgyz Government plans to pilfer the proffered $2 
billion loan from Russia.  Another "Beliy Parus" theory is that 
Manas Air Base is beneficial to Russia because the U.S. uses Manas 
to transport opium directly to Western Europe, bypassing Russian 
soil.  Finally, they theorize that if the Kyrgyz Republic expels the 
Base, the U.S. will "be deeply offended and will never forgive us." 
"The U.S. will become active -- even super active -- in financing 
the opposition."  They even hinted that the U.S. may even support an 
Islamic uprising in Kyrgyzstan. 
 
GFOELLER