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DE RUEHEK #0056/01 0151217
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O 151217Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
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RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 3197
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2583
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO BRUSSELS BE
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RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000056 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ASHGABAT: PLEASE PASS TO GEN. PETRAEUS' PARTY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO MARR MOPS RS KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESS BUZZING ABOUT REPORTED DEAL TO CLOSE 
MANAS 
 
REF: BISHKEK 47 
 
BISHKEK 00000056  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On January 12, the Russian newspaper 
"Vremja Novostei" published an article entitled "(Kyrgyz 
President) Bakiyev is Bringing an Expensive Present to 
Moscow."  The article said that President Bakiyev and the 
Russian government had worked out a deal in which Bakiyev 
would close Manas Air Base in exchange for $2 billion in 
loans from Russia.  Today, January 15, the Kyrgyz media, 
including official state media, began speculating on the 
reported deal.  The state information agency argued in favor 
of the deal, while the Kyrgyzstan edition of "Komsomolskaya 
Pravda" cautioned that the money could be embezzled by 
corrupt officials.  Other commentators speculated on possible 
U.S. retribution.  End Summary. 
 
State Information Agency: Bakiyev in Moscow on January 20 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
¶2. (SBU) On January 15, Kabar, the Kyrgyz State Information 
Agency, collaborated with the Russian Information Agency RIA 
Novosti on an article entitled, "The Passions Around the 
American Base."  Kabar quoted RIA Novosti as reporting that 
President Bakiyev will travel to Moscow on January 20 to 
discuss the Russian aid offer.  RIA Novosti cited President 
Bakiyev as saying that $300 million of the proffered aid will 
go to support the Kyrgyz budget and that $1.7 billion will go 
toward construction of hydroelectric power stations. 
 
State Information Agencies Argue to Close the Base 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶3. (SBU) The Kabar article says that the deal with Moscow, 
which it cites as a "memorandum to be signed by both sides in 
Moscow," is "the only wayQor the (Kyrgyz Republic) to get 
out of the (current economic and energy crisis)."  The 
article editorializes that "although many gung-ho Kyrgyz 
patriots these days never tire of saying that accepting such 
a big loan will make the (Kyrgyz) Republic too dependent on 
Moscow, the 'pro's' of the memorandum are obvious."  As 
arguments in favor of Base closure, the article cites 
military experts who say that the problems in Afghanistan 
cannot be solved through military intervention.   President 
Bakiyev also told RIA Novosti, "In the seven years that the 
anti-terrorist coalition has been in Afghanistan, the 
production of narcotics in that country has only increased." 
The article also claims that the presence of the U.S. 
military base in Kyrgyzstan violates SCO and CSTO agreements. 
 
 
"Manas is Again the Subject of Big Bargaining" 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶4. (SBU) On January 15, the Kyrgyzstan edition of 
Moscow-based "Komsomolskaya Pravda" ran an article entitled 
"Manas is Again the Subject of Big Bargaining."  The article 
says that the Kyrgyz government must choose between Russia 
and America and that "the scales are tipping toward Russia" 
because of President Putin's reputed promise of $2 billion. 
The article cautions, "Kyrgyzstan is like a black hole where 
not just the Russian $2 billion loan, but the whole U.S. 
Federal Reserve System, may disappear.  And Bakiyev most 
likely knows that he could find 30 percent of the money 
missing - gone into the hands of our grabber-officials."  The 
article says President Bakiyev is inclined to make a deal 
with Moscow because "Moscow will never reproach (Bakiyev) for 
authoritarianism, concentration of power in his own hands, 
unfair elections, flourishing corruption, and, probably, the 
next unconstitutional term." 
 
Komsomolskaya Pravda: "Obama Has Already Armed his Colt" 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
¶5. (SBU) The article compares the relative bargaining power 
of Russia and America, concluding that America is in a worse 
position: "They have no chance to gain (control of) water and 
energy resources and the air base.  They can just 
 
BISHKEK 00000056  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
nostalgically look back on the 'Island of Democracy' they 
invested so much in.  Unless the Yankees don't give up. 
Perhaps they will call back Ambassador Stephen Young, who was 
the one who ousted (Former President) Akayev." 
 
¶6. (SBU) The article says that President-Elect Obama needs to 
win the war in Afghanistan and "has already armed his Colt." 
The article claims, "For the sake of (victory in 
Afghanistan), the Pentagon is even preparing for a massive 
withdrawal of troops from Iraq, and is even prepared to delay 
deployment of the Missile Defense System in Europe.  The most 
important thing now for the new president of America is to 
achieve unconditional success in the war against the Taliban, 
and everyone understands this makes the role of the Manas Air 
Base very important.  President-Elect Obama needs a victory 
from far across the Atlantic to prove to his people that he 
is capable of returning the U.S. to authority and respect. 
And whom do we respect?  Those that we fear." 
 
¶7. (SBU) The "Komsomolskaya Pravda" article praises Bakiyev 
for playing a "bad-looking but wise" game to find out how 
much money Russia and America have stashed away "just in case 
of problems in Kyrgyzstan."  It concludes, "If America 
doesn't crush under its mortgage and financial crisis, it 
will be able to afford the next increase in payments for the 
Base." 
 
Internet Forum Rants Against Base 
--------------------------------- 
¶8. (SBU) The vast majority of commentators on the popular 
local forum, Diesel, support the deal to close Manas Air 
Base.  A common sentiment is that Americans have never done 
anything for Kyrgyzstan, but Kyrgyzstan is "historically and 
culturally close" to Russia.  A few readers caution against 
doubling the national debt when corrupt Kyrgyz officials will 
likely steal the money.  Diesel reprinted an online article 
speculating that the United States would take revenge if the 
base were closed.  The article cites local expert and 
Kyrgyz-Russian Slavonic University Professor Alexander 
Knyazev, as saying, "I think that one of the (Americans') 
countermeasures could be an infusion of resources into the 
Kyrgyz opposition to destabilize the internal political 
situation, including attempts to change the political regime 
through already well-known scenarios." 
GFOELLER