VZCZCXRO0255
PP RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #0140/01 0200637
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 200637Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1289
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000140 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ERBIL RRT: DOHUK IDPS SPEAK ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS 
 
This is an Erbil Regional Reconstruction Team cable. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Christian, Yezidi and Arab IDPs in Dohuk Province 
want to participate in the upcoming provincial elections, but have 
questions and doubts about the electoral process.  Personal 
experience of fraud in the 2005 elections makes many skeptical of 
the legitimacy of election results.  IDPs do not anticipate any 
election-related violence in Dohuk Province but believe that 
violence in Ninewa Province (from where most of the IDPs hail) could 
heavily suppress voter turn-out there.  Dohuk contains the largest 
concentration of IDPs (relative to its size) in the Kurdistan Region 
(KR) and has the highest number of IDP voters registered in the KR 
(32,500). The Regional Reconstruction Team (RRT) has encouraged 
local IHEC authorities to improve outreach to IDP communities in 
Dohuk.  End Summary. 
 
MEETINGS WITH IDP GROUPS 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) RRT Provincial Action Officer (RRTOff) met with 
representatives of Arab, Christian and Yezidi IDP communities in 
Dohuk on December 22 and 28 to discuss the upcoming provincial 
elections.  Although the KR will not hold elections in January, IHEC 
will provide absentee voting services to IDPs in the KR.  According 
to the March 2008 UNHCR Working Group on IDPs Report, Dohuk has 
approximately 238,000 IDPs, of which 130,000 arrived after December 
¶2005.  Dohuk is second only to Sulaimaniyah in number of IDPs in the 
KR and has the highest concentration relative to the size of its 
population.  It also has the largest number of minority (primarily 
Christian) IDPs (estimated at 16 percent).   According to the Dohuk 
GEO, Dohuk has 32,500 registered IDP voters - the largest number of 
registered IDP voters in the KR.  Eighty-five percent of those 
registered IDPs are from Ninewa Province. 
 
REGISTRATION PROBLEMS 
--------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) IDPs interviewed wanted to vote in the upcoming provincial 
elections, but still had many questions about the process.  Problems 
with registration led them to conclude that the government was not 
sincere in seeking their participation.  RRTOff heard that some IDPs 
had visited voter registration centers during the official 
registration update period but had not been permitted to add their 
names to the roster.  (NOTE:  RRTOff raised this issue with the 
Dohuk GEO, who requested the names of the specific voter 
registration.  He noted, however, that anyone who had failed to come 
to a voting center during the registration period would not be able 
to vote on the day of the election.  There appears to be some 
confusion here as Iraqis registered as IDPs who hold a food ration 
card would have been automatically registered to vote at designated 
IDP polling centers.  END NOTE.)  Others complained that the 
registration update period was too short to accommodate all of the 
IDPs, and that it did not accommodate those IDPs who fled after the 
uptick in Mosul violence in October. 
 
QUESTIONS ON PROCESS 
-------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) In addition to problematic registration, it appeared from 
the interviews that there are still significant gaps in 
understanding of the electoral process.  Most had never seen a 
representative from the Dohuk Governorate Electoral Office (GEO), 
and none had seen a mock-up of the ballot.  Participants did not 
know off-hand the location of voting centers.  (Only the Yezidi IDPs 
knew where their assigned voting centers were located, and that was 
because the Yezidi cultural center held a special seminar on that 
subject.) Logistical difficulties were also cited, such as a lack of 
Qsubject.) Logistical difficulties were also cited, such as a lack of 
transportation. 
 
DOUBTS ON UTILITY 
----------------- 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Doubt as to the utility of the elections was a common 
theme.  Some IDPs questioned whether their votes would even be 
counted if they did not cast their ballots in their provinces of 
origin.  Participants recalled specific instances of fraud (such as 
money offered for votes) in the 2005 elections and questioned 
whether votes would be counted as they cast them.  They placed 
little faith in voting center monitors because, "those who want to 
commit fraud have already determined how they are going to do it, 
long before the day of the election."  Some IDPs expressed the view 
that both the Government of Iraq (GOI) and the Kurdistan Regional 
Government (KRG) wanted to use the elections to influence any 
upcoming referenda on the disputed areas.  A participant reported an 
attempt by the Ishtar list to offer money in exchange for votes. 
Participants had heard that the Kurdish Brotherhood List had done 
this as well, but had no first-hand reports. 
 
FEARS OF ELECTION-RELATED VIOLENCE 
 
BAGHDAD 00000140  002 OF 002 
 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Representatives from all three communities believed that 
the IDP elections in Dohuk would be peaceful and uneventful. 
However, they uniformly expressed concerns about election-related 
violence in Ninewa Province.  Some estimated that as much as 90 
percent of the population would stay away from the polls in Ninewa 
province.  (Comment:  On the contrary, we think voter turn-out in 
Ninewa will be robust.  End comment.)  They expressed fears that the 
Iraqi Army and/or Iraqi Police in Ninewa were already infiltrated 
with terrorists who would use violence to intimidate potential 
voters from going to the polls.  If the low-turnout that the IDPs 
expected occurred, they would question the legitimacy of the 
election's results.  Arab IDP representatives said that the presence 
of the U.S. military in Ninewa would send a message that the voting 
centers were safe. 
 
BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR MINORITIES 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Though discouraged by a problematic registration period and 
expectations of an outcome that they already believe will fall short 
of their hopes, the IDPs intended to go to the polls.  Nonetheless, 
Assyrian and Yezidi representatives complained that they had only 
been allocated one seat each on the Ninewa Provincial Council. 
Meeting participants said that their single representative would not 
have the political weight necessary to influence provincial council 
decisions, should their respective communities' interests run 
counter to the majority.  When asked if their communities would run 
candidates on other lists, the representatives said that they would. 
 However, they did not believe those candidates would be in a 
position to defend their respective communities' interests either 
because the candidates would be beholden to the parties on whose 
lists they ran.  An informal tally showed that the Assyrian IDPs 
would vote en masse for the Assyrian Democratic Movement candidate, 
while the Yezidi IDPs seemed likely to support the Ninewa Kurdish 
Brotherhood list. 
 
¶8. (U) IDP groups reported that campaigning was limited to 
television spots, with candidates appearing on stations affiliated 
with their group.  They had not seen any posters or other 
"street-level" publicity. 
 
MEETING WITH DOHUK GEO HEAD 
--------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) In a December 28 meeting, Bayar Doski, head of the Dohuk 
GEO, reported to RRTOff that there will be 32 voting centers housing 
96 voting stations at schools throughout the province.  IHEC will 
employ 725 people (teachers and lawyers) to supervise the elections. 
 Doski stated that information will be published through the local 
media about the location of the voting centers approximately 10-20 
days before the election (so that the information will be fresh in 
the minds of the people.)  Doski also reported that IHEC has been 
encouraging the various media outlets in the KR to come to the IHEC 
to apply for their poll-coverage accreditation. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Mr. Doski explained that each of the GEOs implements an 
information campaign designed by UNOPS, in which they engage 
specific groups in the community on the electoral process.  He has 
been conducting those sessions with the Provincial Council, youth, 
women and representatives from the religious communities, but 
sessions are always poorly attended.  He would rather have sessions 
that specifically target the IDP community, but has not been given 
the budget with which to do this.  Doski was frustrated with the 
Qthe budget with which to do this.  Doski was frustrated with the 
one-size-fits-all model that the Baghdad IHEC has created for the 
provinces.  He reported that he is not even allowed to engage the 
local media without IHEC's permission, which he believes has 
compromised his office's ability to publicize information about the 
elections. 
 
¶11. (SBU) COMMENT:  Since the voter registration period began, both 
the GEO and the IDPs the GEO serves have complained that IHEC has 
neither the budget nor the flexibility to retool the program to meet 
the needs of IDPs.  Although Dohuk IDPs have relatively high rates 
of registration relative to their population size, it is nonetheless 
troubling to hear so many people (in an already small population) 
having had negative experiences in the run-up to the election. 
While the Dohuk GEO seems to be genuinely committed to following the 
rules and hopes to do more outreach in the coming month, the crucial 
period has already ended.  RRT raised IDP concerns with Dohuk GEO 
head, and he indicated that he would try to follow up with them. 
RRT has also shared these concerns with United Nations Assistance 
Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) contacts in Erbil.  RRT will continue to 
monitor election preparations and will follow up with IDPs after the 
elections to ascertain their on-the-ground experience. 
 
Crocker