VZCZCXRO9834
PP RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #0132 0181252
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 181252Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1278
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS BAGHDAD 000132 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: DHI QAR ELECTION OVERVIEW 
 
(U) This is a PRT Dhi Qar message. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Elections preparations in Dhi Qar Province 
have been running smoothly, with a high degree of 
coopeeration between the Governorate Electoral Office (GEO) 
and the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).  Voter enthusiasm 
appears to be weaker than in 2005, and lower overall turnout 
is expected.  PRT contacts suggests that Da'wa and Fadhilah 
will be the leading vote-getters, displacing the governing 
ISCI party, and that independents may do well.  Given voter 
cynicism about the ability of politicians to address local 
issues, national issues will also play a significant factor 
in voter decision making.  In the absence of specific 
endorsements by Shi'a religious leaders, voter preferences 
will remain fluid until the election.  End summary. 
 
Election Preparation 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) While attending the January 10 elections and 
security meeting at the Mittica training center, Ahmed Abdul 
Dakhil, security advisor to the Dhi Qar GEO, gave an upbeat 
assessment on the state of elections preparations.  He viewed 
administrative issues as a greater source of risk than 
security concerns.  Contrasting the upcoming election with 
those conducted in 2005, he attributed the increased level of 
calm to planning by Dhi Qar's experienced elections 
personnel, the growth in security personnel numbers, and 
better training for security personnel. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The GEO has been engaged in regular outreach 
activities.  It is working closely with the implementers of 
PRT-funded QRF projects providing grassroots education 
throuigh community meetings, elections simulations, 
billboards, and NGO election monitoring.  We anticipate 
similar cooperation with six recently approved Iraq Rapid 
Assistance Program (IRAP) agreements for NGOs to conduct 
further outreach meetings.  The GEO is organizing 
UNOPS-sponsored conferences for key leaders and placing 
posters or billboards provided by the Iraqi High Electoral 
Commission (IHEC). 
 
Weak Voter Enthuasiasm 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Both the GEO and a media contact who closely follows 
the elections told the PRT recently that they believe voters 
in Dhi Qar are less enthusiastic about the 2009 than the 2005 
elections.  Both predict a lower turnout this time.  The 
media contact said that candidates were complaining to him 
that voters looked at them skeptically and jumped to 
unfavorable conclusions upon learning that they were standing 
for office.  The Provincial Council's first term soured 
voters to the point that even an NGO conducting voter 
education activities in December was dismissed by 
participants as part of the political apparatus and faced a 
challenge in convincing communities to participate in the 
training.  In his view, given the lack of confidence by 
voters that elected officials can solve problems at the local 
level, provincial elections will be seen as a referendum on 
party policies promoted on the national stage rather than as 
an opportunity to debate the future direction of the 
province.  National issues include the question of whether 
and how to form a southern region and the status of Kirkuk. 
 
Handicapping the Race 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) According to an NGO contact, those who do vote are 
likely to seek independent candidates or vote for different 
parties than in 2005.  Provincial religious leaders have 
called on voters to participate but have declined to make the 
specific endorsements that occurred in earlier elections. 
PRT contacts and staff, handicapping the contest, have 
predicted that Da'wa and Fadhilah are likely to be the 
largest vote-getters, displacing the ruling ISCI party. 
There is some indication that disaffected voters could 
QThere is some indication that disaffected voters could 
possibly go for more explicitly secular candidates, such as 
Ayad Allawi's list or the tribally-backed slates, but not in 
sufficient numbers to challenge the established leading 
parties. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Recent PRT contact with the provincial government 
indicates that its decision-making has been virtually at a 
stand-still during the election season.  Officials are 
attempting to avoid decisions that may be affected by a 
change in government. 
CROCKER