VZCZCXRO0672
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHAK #0014/01 0061647
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061647Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8383
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 5189
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 3492
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000014 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
EEB FOR SPECIAL ENVOY FOR EURASIAN ENERGY GRAY 
EEB FOR ENERGY COORDINATOR MANN 
EUR FOR DAS BRYZA 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: ECON ENRG TU IR
SUBJECT: TURKEY MITIGATES THE EFFECTS OF RUSSIAN GAS CUTS 
 
ANKARA 00000014  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  On January 6, the GOT announced Russian gas 
flowing to the West Line (a gas pipeline originating in Russia and 
transiting Ukraine) was cut off.  In public statements, Energy 
Minister Guler and PM Erdogan sought to reassure the Turkish public 
the GOT is taking measures to deal with the crisis and that 
consumers will not be affected.  Turkey plans to make up for the 
deficit by buying additional gas from Russia (via a direct pipeline 
called Blue Stream), by buying LNG on the spot market and other 
measures.  Iran offered to sell additional gas to Turkey but Guler 
declined. End summary. 
 
GOT Tells Public Not to Worry About Gas Cuts 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Below are excerpts from a press conference held by Energy 
Minister Guler on January 6.  Guler said Russian gas flowing from 
the West Line to Turkey (a line that flows through Ukraine, Moldova, 
Romania and Bulgaria) was completely cut as of January 6.  Turkey 
was first notified about a cut to 32 mcm (million cubic meters), 
then to 17 mcm, after which the gas was completely cut.  Turkey is 
compensating for this loss with several actions including: (1) 
increased daily flows from the Blue Stream pipeline from 40 mcm to 
48 mcm; (2) usage of gas from Turkey's underground storage facility; 
and (3) purchase of additional liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargos. 
Additionally, the Ministry of Energy has activated clauses in some 
contracts with power generators that require generators to switch 
from gas to alternative fuels in the event of a gas shortage. 
Turkey continues talks with Russia. Prime Minister Erdogan will talk 
to his counterpart, if needed.  Other countries' ministers are also 
involved. Turkey wants to resolve this problem quickly.  The GOT has 
the situation under control and does not expect the cut off to 
continue for long.  The EU and the countries along the pipeline are 
also working with Gazprom to resolve the problem. 
 
¶3.  (U) Following Guler's press conference, PM Erdogan made a 
statement to the press.  He confirmed the cut off of Russian gas via 
the West Line but said this is not a problem for Turkey.  The GOT 
has taken precautionary measures to make up for gas cuts, so gas to 
customers and industry would be continued without interruption. 
Meanwhile, Turkey continues negotiations with Russia, Ukraine and 
Bulgaria.  The PM expressed confidence that the issue will be 
resolved promptly. 
 
Iran Offers Additional Gas Supply for Turkey 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Iranian Economic Counselor in Turkey Ahmad Noorani told 
reporters Iran was ready to provide additional gas to Turkey to make 
up for the loss from the Russian gas cut.  In his press conference, 
Guler confirmed Iran's offer but said for the moment, the amount of 
gas Turkey receives from Iran is sufficient, adding that Turkey will 
buy more gas from Iran if needed. 
 
Gas to Greece Remains Constant But Will Not Increase 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Commenting on Turkey's gas flow to Greece, Guler said the 
amount of gas flow to Greece remains unchanged.  Reuters reported 
that Greece asked Turkey to increase the gas flow through the 
Turkey-Greece interconnector, which Turkey reportedly declined to 
do. 
 
 
¶6.  (U) Speaking to the press, Ukraine's Ambassador to Turkey Sergei 
Korsunsky denied allegations that Ukraine shut down the valves to 
Europe, and claimed his country had sufficient stock of gas to last 
until April. Korsunsky noted that Ukraine sent a letter to Russia on 
January 5 to resolve the problem.  Ukraine hopes to renew gas 
contracts with Russia as soon as possible.  Both sides need 
political will and effort to resolve the problem.  Expressing his 
disappointment that Turkey too was affected by the gas cut, 
Korsunsky argued Ukraine (would not unilaterally cut of gas to 
Europe). 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Informal advisor to Guler Faruk Demir assured us the 
Ministry is well-prepared for this gas cut.  The GOT has been 
working on crisis scenarios since November and had even planned for 
a scenario in which gas from both the Russian West Line and the 
Iranian line were cut.  Demir expects the problem will continue for 
10-15 days, during which Turkey would be able to manage. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment: Having dealt with Iranian gas cutoffs for the 
 
ANKARA 00000014  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
last two winters, the GOT is confident it can mitigate the effects 
of the current gas crisis.  By our calculations, Turkey now has a 
gas deficit of 27 mcm.  The longer the crisis continues the more 
expensive and difficult it may be for Turkey to make up this 
difference.