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Viewing cable 08WELLINGTON413, CONTINUITY URGED IN BRIEFING TO NZ FOREIGN MINISTER

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08WELLINGTON413 2008-12-15 02:28 2011-04-28 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Wellington
VZCZCXRO5868
RR RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0413/01 3500228
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 150228Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5577
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1812
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 5349
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0766
RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA 0779
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0778
RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000413 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NZ
SUBJECT: CONTINUITY URGED IN BRIEFING TO NZ FOREIGN MINISTER 
 
WELLINGTON 00000413  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) 
Briefing to Incoming Ministers (BIM), publicly released on December 
8, makes a strong case for continuing the policies and approach of 
the previous government.  The MFAT BIM provides the Ministry's 
opening summary of its current policy approach and funding 
expectations.   MFAT's proposals for change were cautious and few. 
Although the new National-led Government is likely to continue many 
of the current policy settings, it nonetheless aims to promote more 
ambition and accountability in NZ's foreign policy.  Whether this 
results in confrontation or partnership with MFAT remains to be 
seen.  End Summary. 
 
Incoming Foreign and Trade Ministers Briefed 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU)  On December 8, the New Zealand Government publicly 
released the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade Briefing to 
Incoming Ministers, or BIM.  The purpose of the BIM, is to inform, 
update and provide suggestions for incoming ministers.  The 2008 
MFAT BIM details New Zealand's key relationships around the world, 
issues of regional and global importance, where and how it is 
engaged internationally, what are its foreign policy challenges and 
opportunities and who are the key domestic and international 
stakeholders. 
 
Steady as She Goes 
------------------ 
 
3. (SBU)  Throughout the MFAT BIM there is a strong case for 
continuity of policy settings from the previous government.  The few 
suggested deviations from current settings are typically mild and 
cautiously delivered.  The new government is not likely to 
dramatically deviate from NZ's current foreign policy.  Any changes 
instructed by the new National-led Government will likely be only in 
the margins and in tone. 
 
Can a Bureaucracy be Bold? 
-------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) There have, however, been some acts of boldness in the new 
government that have outweighed its instinctively cautious 
officials.  For example, Prime Minister John Key rejected a MFAT 
drafted speech to be delivered at the November 22 APEC Business 
Advisory Council in Peru for not being bold enough.  Boldness and a 
desire make its mark are not, however, uncommon traits in new 
governments.  Nonetheless, the capacity to sustain this high-tempo 
start will be largely determined by NZ's deteriorating fiscal 
position and the government's ability to resource its foreign 
ministry.  Already, there are signs that such constraints are 
affecting MFAT's funding. 
 
Can MFAT Defend Peters' "Political Trophy? 
------------------------------------------ 
 
5. (SBU)  Significant space in the BIM is allotted to the baseline 
funding package - the "Step Change" budget - introduced in 2007 by 
the previous government to enable MFAT to maintain capacity and 
capability and to develop NZ's diplomatic footprint at home and 
abroad over next five years.  MFAT acknowledged, wistfully given its 
early embrace of the funding, that in light of NZ's deteriorating 
fiscal and economic position, there will be an "interim slow-down" 
in the funding's implementation in areas where expenditure has not 
already been incurred or committed.  The language used by MFAT 
points to a defense of the new funding to the new government which 
has signaled well in advance that it aimed to review all public 
sector spending (Note: When the National Party was in opposition, it 
labeled the funding a "political trophy" for former Foreign Minister 
Winston Peters, who championed it. End Note).  Within this context, 
MFAT makes the case to its new ministers that the new funding is 
essential to enable superior near and long-term outcomes. 
 
The Pacific: Democracy Promotion High on Agenda 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
6. (SBU) In the Pacific, MFAT asserts that there are few, if any, 
changes needed to current policy. Continuity of approach, 
deliverables and outcomes are common themes. It acknowledges that 
security and development in the region remain fragile and NZ must 
continue to work in concert with others.  Restoration of democracy 
in Fiji and enhanced democracy in Tonga remain central to MFAT's 
thinking in the region.  Foreign Minister Murray McCully appears to 
concur as he has just traveled to Fiji to take part in the Pacific 
Forum Ministerial Contact Group tasked with encouraging Fiji's 
 
WELLINGTON 00000413  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
return to democratic rule.  Additionally, on December 11 he 
announced that the government would commit NZD1.5 million to support 
the democratic reform process in Tonga.  In the BIM, MFAT notes that 
Melanesia is an increasing focus for NZ's diplomatic efforts to 
address poverty and security issues prevalent in the region. 
 
Israel Policy Could Change under New Govt 
----------------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) In the Middle East, MFAT acknowledges that relations with 
Israel have improved since the 2005 passport incident, but also 
notes the complications posed by Israel's continued occupation of 
Arab lands and its conduct in the occupied Palestinian territory. 
This nuanced position may be challenged by the new government, 
particularly if the desire of a senior Cabinet minister, 
Attorney-General Chris Finlayson, for NZ to have a more supportive 
position towards Israel gains support.  Although supportive of the 
Annapolis process, MFAT notes that prospects for final settlement 
remain in doubt due to political uncertainties on both the Israeli 
and Palestinian sides. 
 
Flexibility and Increased Engagement in Asia 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) In Asia, where MFAT believes the Step Change funding will 
reap the most benefits for NZ, it calls for increased engagement and 
influence.  To win these benefits, MFAT believes that bilateral and 
regional responses need to be "nimble" to maximise gains.  Within 
this context, nimble appears to refer to having a multifaceted 
approach in the region, given its many complexities and variations. 
On the U.S.-India Civilian Nuclear Co-Operation Agreement, MFAT 
claims that NZ is credited, in part, for ensuring the implementation 
of certain non-proliferation elements of the final agreement.  NZ 
will continue to closely monitor the Agreement's implementation. 
 
9. (SBU) On Afghanistan, MFAT notes that officials are presently 
drafting option papers for the Cabinet on NZ's future integrated 
participation in Afghanistan and Timor Leste.  A Defense White Paper 
is due in 2009.  MFAT reports that progress in Afghanistan remains 
constrained by security challenges and capacity constraints of the 
Kabul government.  On Iran's nuclear ambitions, MFAT affirms that 
Iran should meet IAEA and UNSC requirements and appears comforted by 
the commitment by Israel and the U.S. to take the diplomatic track 
to ease tensions. 
 
10. (SBU) On matters of trade, MFAT's agenda affixes priority to 
multilateral mechanisms.  Its plurilateral agenda is topped by the 
Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP), wherein it 
highlights the U.S. role.  MFAT recommends that a visit to the U.S. 
by the Minister of Trade, Tim Groser, in either February or March 
2009 (in advance of the planned TPP negotiation involving the U.S.) 
may be of "merit." MFAT also suggests that early ministerial visits 
to Korea and Japan could also bear fruit in possible closer trade 
relations with those countries. 
 
Resource Diplomacy High on MFAT Agenda 
-------------------------------------- 
 
11. (SBU) Resource Diplomacy features heavily in MFAT activities and 
plans.  Ranging from climate change to whaling, MFAT notes that NZ 
seeks to be active in providing solutions and working on a range of 
related challenges.  It acknowledges that the U.S. is NZ's key 
partner in Antarctica on logistical, scientific and policy-related 
matters. 
 
Continuation of Activist Approach to Disarmament 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
12. (SBU)  Though it recognises that the threat to NZ of a direct 
terrorist attack remains relatively low, MFAT asserts that NZ is 
committed to make a strong contribution to what it continues to term 
the "International Campaign against Terrorism."  Central to this 
contribution is compliance with international counterterrorism 
instruments, MFAT refers to the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy 
as a "key reference point."  That being said, MFAT makes a case that 
the NZ Government ratifying the Nuclear Terrorism Convention and the 
2005 Amendment to the Convention of the Physical Protection of 
Nuclear Materials will "send a strong signal of [NZ's] determination 
to combat the threat of nuclear/radiological terrorism." 
 
13. (SBU) The MFAT BIM states that NZ will continue to pursue an 
activist disarmament agenda.  It favours the strongest possible 
outcome on nuclear disarmament with regard to the NPT Review 
 
WELLINGTON 00000413  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Conference in 2010 and will work to that end.  MFAT notes that a 
planned Cabinet paper will recommend ratification of the Convention 
on Cluster Munitions - of which NZ was one of the first to sign on 
December 3 - subject to satisfactory completion of the scrutiny by 
the NZ Parliament (likely to be favorable given that the first 
public act of the new Disarmament Minister, Georgina te Heu Heu, was 
to sign the Convention and the fact that Labour Party in-government 
fully backed the Oslo Process). 
 
Aid Restructuring Likely 
------------------------ 
 
14. (SBU)  In response to the 2007 annual audit, in which the New 
Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID) received a 
"poor" rating for its control environment and contract management, 
MFAT proposes a new organizational structure which, if approved by 
ministers, is expected to take 12-18 months to implement.  Though 
the audit assessed no risk, MFAT have been on the defensive about 
its aid program and organizational structure.  In part, this 
particular proposal reflects this.  Foreign Minister McCully, in 
line with the new government's drive for fiscal accountability in 
the public sector, has already ordered a review of NZ's targeted aid 
program. Although, there are no signs that the objective to provide 
substantial developmental assistance, especially to the Pacific, 
will change, the means and calibration of its delivery could. 
 
Comment: Will Ambition lead to Friction? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
15. (SBU)  Despite National's promise to conduct a bipartisan 
foreign policy, in addition to its ready adoption of many positions 
and policies of the former Labour-led administration, it has made 
clear that it wants to see foreign policy conducted both with more 
"ambition" (a term fast becoming a National clich) and greater 
accountability.  It will be worth watching how much change those 
objectives produce and whether those changes result from a 
partnership or confrontation between MFAT and its ministers.  End 
Comment. 
 
McCormick