R 231550Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7532
INFO DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS WARSAW 001450 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
TAGS: ECON ENRG EINV TRGY BEXP BTIO PL
 
SUBJECT: POLAND'S PLANS FOR A CIVIL NUCLEAR PROGRAM 
 
REF: SECSTATE 127423 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: The Polish government has committed to develop a 
nuclear power sector, driven by CO2 emissions constraints and 
reluctance to rely on imported energy.  Prime Minister Tusk recently 
announced his intention to have two reactors up and running by 2020; 
an ambitious target for a country lacking experience and expertise 
but one which may be necessary to comply with recently adopted EU 
emissions targets.  A timeline for further development leading out 
to 2030 is in the new energy strategy paper awaiting approval by the 
PM and his cabinet.  Most importantly, the draft strategy includes 
provisions for government financing (with help from EU funds) of 
preparatory work over the next four or five years resulting in a 
bidding process for the private sector to construct and maintain 
nuclear facilities (expected to take another five or six years). 
These plans are unaffected by developments on Ignalina, where Poland 
plans to participate in a project to replace Lithuania's ageing 
nuclear plant.  End Summary. 
 
Strategy and Timeline 
--------------------- 
¶2.  (U) Ministry of Economy officials who currently have the lead on 
nuclear policy anticipate the government's energy strategy to be 
approved sometime in the first quarter of 2009.  This would kick off 
a six month period of public discussion on nuclear power before a 
formal decision is made to go ahead with a program in the third 
quarter of 2009.  Polling shows support for nuclear power at around 
60%, higher among younger generations.  There is no real opposition 
movement here (as elsewhere in Europe) but the issue has not been in 
the headlines in recent years and poll numbers are likely to shift. 
However, officials believe they will maintain sufficient public 
support to move forward. 
 
¶3.  (U) Following a formal decision on nuclear power, a new agency 
would be created to oversee the program.  Polish officials plan to 
model this agency on IAEA draft recommendations for a "Nuclear 
Energy Program Implementation Organization" (NEPIO).  Agency 
responsibilities would encompass development of the human capital 
necessary to support a nuclear program, including regulatory and 
oversight capacity; an area where the Poles specifically would like 
our help.  The agency would also work on site selection, development 
of a legal and regulatory framework, as well as bidding 
requirements.  In the plan's current iteration, the NEPIO would 
transition authority to a regulatory body and private owner/operator 
upon completion of the first nuclear power plants. 
 
Construction and Potential Participants 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Construction would be bid out to international 
competition, with financing support from the government, EU climate 
funds, and quasi-governmental companies such as Poland's largest 
current energy producer and distributor, Polish Energy Group (PGE). 
Currently PGE, Suez Energy, RWE energy, EDF, Westinghouse, and GE 
have been in contact with the Polish government regarding potential 
participation.  Prior to the Prime Minister's most recent 
announcement, the Ministry of Economy announced two preliminary 
locations for potential nuclear facilities in Poland, Zarnowiec and 
Klempicz.  These sites currently have coal-based power plants. 
Poland does not currently have the local capacity or experience to 
take on a construction process on the scale of a nuclear power 
plant, nor is it a producer of nuclear fuel.  While generally open 
to international competition, government authorities will likely be 
wary of Russian participation in a nuclear program. 
 
Authorities and Decision-Makers 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Currently, nuclear issues are regulated by the National 
Atomic Agency, headed by former nuclear safety inspector Professor 
Jerzy Niewodniczanski.  The agency primarily looks after issues of 
safety related to potential sources of radiation and the old Soviet 
research facility (Swierk) which is currently being dismantled with 
US DOE assistance.  Indicative of the lack of experienced nuclear 
professionals in Poland, the agency's sole remaining inspector (out 
of 104 employees) announced he is leaving his half-time position 
after the holidays. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The political decision to move forward with nuclear power 
will likely be taken by Prime Minister Tusk, with advice from his 
energy advisor Maciej Wozniak.  Formal authority over energy rests 
with the Ministry of Economy headed by Deputy Prime Minister Pawlak 
who also leads the minority coalition partner in the parliament. 
Minister Pawlak's party primarily represents rural interests and is 
rumored to be less enthusiastic about nuclear power in favor of 
bio-fuel alternatives and the country's current fuel of choice, coal 
(over 90% of power generation).  The Ministry's Office of Energy 
Diversification currently has the lead under Minister Pawak. 
Department Director Chwas shares responsibility with Dr. Jastrowski, 
an advisor to the Ministry on nuclear issues and Poland's 
 
representative to the IAEA. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Comment: Poland is clearly in early stages of development 
and the government's ability to follow through on a long-term 
commitment may be limited by their short-term focus and historically 
frequent turnover.  However, with the recent passage of the EU's 
energy climate package, the GoP will undoubtedly be looking more 
seriously at nuclear power.  There seems to be an appetite for U.S. 
input into the process, particularly as decision-makers may be wary 
of third-country governments simply pushing products rather than 
providing honest advice.  As this moves forward we anticipate 
opportunities for U.S. private sector participation at each stage of 
the process.  Post would encourage outreach and engagement of the 
newly established U.S. Trade Promotion Coordinating Committee. 
 
ASHE 
 
 
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