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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVL #1030/01 3430526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 080526Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3144
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 001030 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - December 5, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Youth Leader Denied Readmission (para. 2) 
- United Civic Party Members Briefly Detained (para. 3) 
- Opposition Rallies Banned (para. 4) 
- Brest Opposition Activists Fined (para. 5) 
- Opposition Members Cleared of Bombing Charges (para. 6) 
- Grodno Opposition Activists Detained at Border (para. 7) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- National Bank Helps the Country's Four Largest State-Owned Banks 
(para. 8) 
- Trade Ministry Recommends Reducing Non-Critical Imports (para. 9) 
- Deputy Prime Minister Comments on the Country's Economy (para. 
10) 
- 2008 Foreign Debt "Insignificant" (para. 11) 
- Belneftekhim Decreases Fuel Prices (para. 12) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 13) 
---------------------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Youth Leader Denied Readmission 
 
On November 27, Belarusian Popular Front youth group leader Franak 
Vyachorka was yet again denied readmission to the Belarus State 
University after his expulsion in February 2008.  Vyachorka noted 
that the university administration suggested that he apply for 
readmission after the winter exams.  The army draft office also 
informed Vyachorka that he could soon be removed from travel ban 
lists following the dismissal of alleged draft evasion charges 
against him. 
 
¶3.  United Civic Party Members Briefly Detained 
 
Police briefly detained United Civic Party Chair Anatoliy Lebedko 
and three associates in northwestern Belarus on December 2.  The 
activists were heading to a potential site for construction of a 
nuclear power plant.  The police searched Lebedko's vehicle and 
seized over 1,000 copies of flyers calling upon the entrepreneurs 
and small business owners to join protests and strikes across 
Belarus in mid-December.  In spite of the detention, the activists 
were able to visit nearby towns and distribute the leaflets at local 
markets. 
 
¶4.  Opposition Rallies Banned 
 
Mozyr city authorities denied on December 2 local opposition 
activist Pavel Nozdrya holding a rally to mark the 17th anniversary 
of the collapse of the Soviet Union and bring communism to a 
tribunal.  On December 3, local authorities in Minsk, Pinsk, and 
Kobrin also opposed Malady Front activists who wanted to stage 
similar demonstrations.  In a separate case December 2, city 
authorities banned local human rights advocate Pavel Levinov from 
holding demonstrations in central Vitebsk to celebrate the 60th 
anniversary of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights December 
¶10.  The opposition representatives called bans "politically 
motivated" and discriminatory.  The activists maintained they would 
appeal the bans. 
 
¶5.  Brest Opposition Activists Fined 
 
On December 3, a Brest district court fined three local opposition 
activists USD 32 each for staging an unsanctioned protest in 
downtown Brest.  Activist Zhanna Abramova and two associates 
protested what they called Abramova's "illegal eviction" from an 
apartment that she had inherited from her grandmother.  Abramova 
expressed her firm commitment to challenge her eviction in a higher 
court. 
 
¶6.  Opposition Members Cleared of Bombing Charges 
 
Right Alliance leader Yuriy Karetnikov, opposition activist Mikhail 
Sheremet, and Young Democrats activist Aleksandr Sergeyenko informed 
the media December 1 that the Prosecutor General's Office dropped 
criminal charges against them in connection with the July 4, 2008 
bomb explosion.  The three activists were also notified that law 
enforcement would lift travel bans imposed on them during 
investigation. 
 
 
VILNIUS 00001030  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7.  Grodno Opposition Activists Detained at Border 
 
On November 28, border guards detained and searched local human 
rights lawyer Viktor Sazonov at the Grodno railway station and local 
United Civil Party leaders Yuriy Istomin and Aleksandr Vasilevich at 
the Polish border crossing for half-an-hour and an hour, 
respectively.  Officials released the activists without charges; 
however, they gave no legitimate grounds for searching the 
travelers' belongings. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶8.  National Bank Helps the Country's Four Largest State-Owned 
Banks 
 
According to the Presidential press service, Belarus' National Bank 
Chairman Pyotr Prokopovich told Lukashenko on November 27 about 
efforts to support the country's four largest state-owned banks. 
USD 1.5 billion of central budget funds will be spent to increase 
the banks' charter funds and secure their stable operations during 
the global financial crisis.  According to Prokopovich, many foreign 
banks plan to support their subsidiaries in Belarus in 2009.  He 
also assured Lukashenka that, although the financial situation 
outside Belarus influences Belarusian ruble, it will fall or grow in 
2009 within limits set by the National Bank. 
 
¶9.  Trade Ministry Recommends Reducing Non-Critical Imports 
 
Deputy Trade Minister Mikhail Sventitsky told journalists November 
27 that the Ministry does not seek to ban imports of some food 
products.  It drafted the list, which includes beer, juices, mineral 
water and some fruits and vegetables only to recommend importers to 
refrain from importing them as domestic producers can fully satisfy 
the demand.  In turn, the saved hard currency should be spent wisely 
on critical imports: energy resources, raw materials, etc.  His 
comment failed to clarify whether importers who disregard the 
recommendation will or will not be held legally responsible. 
 
¶10.  Deputy Prime Minister Comments on the Country's Economy 
 
Speaking to the Lower and Upper Houses of the parliament on November 
28, Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Kobyakov made a few important 
comments on the country's economy.  He said the GOB expects 14.5 
percent inflation in 2008 and blamed high energy prices on the world 
market earlier this year.  Kobyakov said Belarus supports transfer 
to payments in Russian rubles in Belarus-Russia mutual trade.  The 
governments have yet to decide on the technicalities of the 
transfer.  He also believes Belarus has high chances of securing a 
USD 2 billion loan in 2009 from the IMF.  IMF representatives will 
come to Belarus again for loan talks starting December 15.  Finally, 
although the global financial crisis is hitting Belarus' exporters 
hard, Kobyakov argued that indices of industrial growth will be in 
complete accordance with the yearly plan. 
 
¶11.  Belarus' 2008 Foreign Debt "Insignificant" 
 
According to official statistics, Belarus' foreign debt decreased 
1.4 percent in October to USD 2.2 billion.  In January through 
October the decrease was 5.3 percent.  As of November 1, the ratio 
of foreign debt to the GDP was 3.9 percent.  In November the 
country's foreign debt increased by another one billion USD as 
Russia issued the first half of its loan to Belarus.  This is still 
below the limit of USD 6 billion stipulated in the country's budget. 
 
 
¶12.  Belneftekhim Decreases Fuel Prices 
 
According to the media, petrochemical conglomerate Belneftekhim 
reduced wholesale and retail prices on gasoline and diesel fuel by 
10 percent.  This is the first fuel price reduction in recent 
history.  It took the government two months to make the decision, 
which raised considerable public ire. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶13.  In an interview with Interfax-West news agency Secretary of the 
Central Election Commission Nikolay Lozovik said: 
 
"OSCE observers vary their standards depending on the country where 
they observe the elections. Something that is considered democratic 
in Ukraine and Georgia is not democratic in Belarus and Russia." 
 
MOORE 
CLOUD