VZCZCXRO0959
PP RUEHTRO
DE RUEHTRO #0970/01 3541540
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191540Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4255
INFO RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0654
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0967
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY 0039
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0164
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 1350
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 0707
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 0846
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 0789
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 4777

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TRIPOLI 000970 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/MAG 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SOCI AMED SMIG LY
SUBJECT: HIV INFECTION RATES IN LIBYA MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER 
THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a recent televised interview, Libya's 
leading HIV/AIDS prevention official said the number of Libyans 
infected with HIV could be as high as 70,000 individuals, 
representing some 1.13 percent of the total population. 
Previous estimates had put the number at .6 percent (about 
37,000 people) to one percent (about 61,000 people). 
Intravenous drug use and risky sexual behavior constitute the 
most prevalent disease vectors.  Given the difficulty of 
obtaining reliable statistics in Libya, the estimate of 70,000 
cases of HIV-positive cases is useful, although the presence of 
a large migrant population from sub-Saharan Africa and lack of 
clarity about the extent of intravenous drug use and risky 
sexual behavior suggest that the real figure of HIV-positive 
cases could be still higher.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  On the occasion of World AIDS Day on December 1, Dr. 
Muhammad Sammud, Director of Libya's HIV/AIDS prevention program 
at the National Center for Infectious Diseases was interviewed 
on state-owned television about the country's efforts to track 
and prevent the spread of the disease in Libya.  The interview 
also appeared on satellite channel al-Jazeera.  Dr. Sammud said 
the government had recently tested some 70,000 people for HIV in 
an effort to obtain a valid statistical sample that would help 
determine HIV infection rates in Libya.  He said there were 
10,600 known cases of Libyans infected with HIV in the country; 
however, he pointed out that epidemiologists typically multiply 
the number of known cases by a factor of six in developing 
countries since testing protocols and concerns among infected 
individuals about stigmatization often lead to a dramatic 
under-representation of the actual number of cases.  Using this 
approach, he said the number of Libyans who are HIV-positive 
could be as high as 70,000. (Note: It was not clear whether the 
70,000 individuals tested included members of the Libya's large 
migrant community, many of whom are from sub-Saharan Africa. 
Some estimates put that population at about two million people. 
End note.) 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  In a recent meeting sponsored by the EU's HIV/AIDS 
Action Plan for Benghazi, an HIV-positive rate of 0.6 percent 
among Libyans was given.  Using the 2007 CIA World Factbook's 
total population figure of 6,173,579, that represents about 
37,000 people.  But some studies, including ones undertaken by 
the Government of Libya (GOL), UNAIDS and the U.K., suggest that 
the prevalence of HIV among Libyans engaged in risky behavior 
approaches one percent (about 61,000 people out of the total 
population).  The figure of 70,000 individuals cited by Dr. 
Sammud would represent about 1.13 percent, significantly larger 
than previous estimates. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The first cases of HIV infection in Libya were detected 
in 1985 among hemophiliacs, who contracted HIV from Factor VIII 
imported from Europe.  National AIDS Programme (NAP) figures 
showed that since 1998 there has been an alarming increase in 
the number of HIV-positive cases, a period that coincided with 
the infection of some 429 children at the Benghazi Children's 
Hospital.  (Note: The GOL claimed those infections had been 
deliberately perpetrated by a group including five Bulgarian 
nurses and a Palestinian doctor, who allegedly injected the 
children with the virus.  End note.)  UNAIDS and NAP estimate 
that 90 percent of adult infections in Libya result from 
intravenous drug use.  Although the NAP has promulgated a 
multi-pronged awareness campaign since 2002, HIV/AIDS remains a 
heavily stigmatized illness because of its associations with 
drug abuse and extra-marital sexual relations.  The head 
administrator of a leading medical center in Tripoli told us 
earlier this year that Libyan health officials were also 
increasingly concerned about the large number of Libyan men, 
married and unmarried, who frequent prostitutes but do not use 
protection, representing another potentially significant vector 
for the disease. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Comment: The recent television interview of the 
country's leading authority on HIV/AIDS represented a rare bit 
of public candor from Libya's health officials.  More typical is 
a reluctance to say anything to the public, as in the case of a 
recent outbreak of "bluemouth disease" among sheep.  The 
outbreak occurred on the eve of the Eid al-Adha holiday, which 
families typically celebrate by eating mutton.  This year, 
rumors about the extent of the bluemouth outbreak and the impact 
of the disease on humans prompted many Libyans to celebrate Eid 
 
TRIPOLI 00000970  002 OF 002 
 
 
al-Adha with chicken.  Given the difficulty of obtaining 
reliable statistics in Libya, the estimate of 70,000 cases of 
HIV-positive cases is useful, although the large migrant 
population and lack of clarity about the extent of intravenous 
drug use and risky sexual behavior suggest that the real figure 
of HIV-positive cases could be still higher.  End comment. 
GODFREY