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P 160130Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
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RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 2009
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6839
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 2840
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2941

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 TOKYO 003409 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 12/16/08 
 
Index: 
 
Iraq assistance: 
1) ASDF begins to pullout C-130s from Iraq, ending five years of 
service  (Tokyo Shimbun) 
2) No casualties on record as the ASDF withdraws from flight 
operations in Iraq  (Sankei) 
 
3) Former senior U.S. official in Clinton administration to meet 
senior official in Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to discuss Obama 
administration  (Mainichi) 
 
Political agenda: 
4) DPJ shakes up government and ruling camp by proposing new job 
legislation and urging cooperation  (Yomiuri) 
5) Tug of war between Prime Minister Aso and ruling camp over 
raising consumption tax in three years  (Yomiuri) 
6) LDP Election Committee Chairman Koga in feud with New Komeito 
over election cooperation  (Sankei) 
7) Prime Minister Aso on stumping tour makes more gaffes  (Mainichi) 
 
 
8) Government revises downward outlook for next fiscal year, 
predicting zero grown  (Yomiuri) 
 
Articles: 
 
1) ASDF begins withdrawal from Iraq 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top play) (Full) 
December 16, 2008 
 
The Air Self-Defense Force has now wound up its airlift activities 
conducted in Iraq under a law for special measures to assist with 
Iraq's reconstruction. The ASDF airlift squadron in Iraq began to 
withdraw on the afternoon of Dec. 15. The first one of the three 
ASDF C-130 transport planes left Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait for 
Japan that day at 12:54 a.m. (6:54 p.m., Japan time). The 
Self-Defense Forces' dispatch to Iraq started in 2004. Five years 
later, the SDF mission in Iraq will end. 
 
The C-130 transport will take five days on its way back home by way 
of the Maldives, Thailand, the Philippines, and Okinawa. It will 
arrive at the ASDF's Komaki base in Aichi Prefecture on Dec. 19. 
 
The remaining two cargo planes will leave there on Dec. 16 and 17. 
The ASDF's liaison personnel in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad will 
leave there on Dec. 16. 
 
There are about 210 ASDF members currently on the Iraq mission, and 
about 150 of them will arrive at the Komaki base on Dec. 23 on a 
government plane. The other ASDF members will be engaged in the work 
of removing ASDF facilities. They are expected to return home around 
March next year. 
 
The ASDF squadron has carried out a total of 821 airlifts since its 
airlift activities in Iraq started in 2004. The C-130's alarm, which 
indicates a missile attack, was often activated, so the C-130s had 
to turn around to evacuate. "It's miraculous that all can return 
home safely," an ASDF staff officer said. 
 
2) ASDF unit starts withdrawing from Iraq, with no casualties 
 
TOKYO 00003409  002 OF 007 
 
 
 
SANKEI (Top play) (Excerpts) 
December 16, 2008 
 
The Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF) transport unit began on Dec. 15 
withdrawing from Iraq following the completion of its airlift 
mission. One of the three C-130 cargo planes based in Kuwait took 
off from Ali Al Salem Air Base. Five personnel who had been sent to 
the coalition forces' headquarters in Baghdad to collect information 
have also returned to Japan. During the transport mission in Iraq in 
a remarkably dangerous state, the C-130 cargo planes were about to 
be hit by a missile. A bill submitted by the Democratic Party of 
Japan with the aim of abolishing the Iraq Special Measures Law 
demoralized the Self-Defense Forces, and a competent pilot has left 
the SDF. What happened behind the scenes during the five-year 
airlift mission that has been completed with no casualties? 
 
Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura abruptly announced 
on Sept. 11 a plan to pull the ASDF troops out of Iraq. The 
announcement was made, based on an official telegram sent by the 
U.S. government on the previous day. 
 
The telegram noted: "The Iraqi government intends to keep only 
troops from six nations (including the U.S., Britain, and Australia) 
in the nation and to have the rest of the coalition forces withdraw 
their troops." Washington also notified Japan of its plan to 
announce that Japan was not among the six nations. The Japanese 
government, which wanted to withdraw troops on its own judgment, 
announced a withdrawal plan in haste, showing that Japan had not 
prepared any exit strategy. 
 
Dangerous scenes 
 
There were scenes where SDF personnel were scared stiff. A U.S. 
military plane that had taken off from Baghdad Airport 15 minutes 
after an ASDF C-130 transport left the same airport was attacked 
with an antiaircraft gun. In another case, four missiles flied over 
a VIP-carrying C-130 plane readied on a runway of the airport. 
 
According to an SDF officer, there were about 30 attacks on Baghdad 
Airport when the security situation was growing worse, although it 
was designated as a noncombat zone. Baghdad Airport was the most 
dangerous place for the ASDF unit, which transported UN and U.S.-led 
multinational force members, as well as goods, connecting the 
Kuwaiti base with three Iraqi cities. 
 
There was a case in which the pilot wondered if he should land the 
plane because a missile attack on the airport had taken place just 
before its landing. The SDF officer said: "Even one accident 
involving personnel or a C-130 plane will give rise to arguments 
calling for withdrawal from Iraq." The ASDF unit was expected to 
play a "perfect game." 
 
High evaluation 
 
The SDF has been rated high by other multinational force members, 
with one remarking, "They are well-regulated, though there is no 
military law." Another said: "The C-130 aircraft is almost 100 
PERCENT  operational, and their credibility is outstanding." In 
addition to their flight skills and reliability, their morale drew 
much attention. About five out of the nine U.S. cargo planes are in 
operation. ASDF unit members did maintenance on them all night, so 
 
TOKYO 00003409  003 OF 007 
 
 
three planes were always available. 
 
Morale dampened 
 
"Two events affected the morale of troops like a body blow," a 
senior ASDF member said. What he pointed out was the bill submitted 
by the DPJ calling for abolishing the Iraq special measures law and 
a ruling handed down by the Nagoya High Court this April against the 
ASDF airlift mission in Iraq. Set off by these developments, the 
bases began to swarm with demonstrators, and fliers criticizing ASDF 
activities were distributed at ASDF billets. Troops began to feel 
uneasy, and their families started harboring doubts about the 
operations carried out by their husbands or fathers. 
 
"We appreciate the families for their devoted support of the 
mission." This is a part of the message sent by U.S. Defense 
Secretary Gates to Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada last month. But 
no words of appreciation were found in a statement issued by Prime 
Minister Taro Aso following the announcement of a decision to end 
the ASDF airlift mission. A senior Defense Ministry official, 
recalling the five years of the mission, said: "If the government 
keeps depending on the SDF's sense of mission, without offering 
words of gratitude toward their families, their international duties 
might end in failure." 
 
3) DPJ execs to meet with ex-Pentagon officials affiliated with 
Democratic Party 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) 
December 16, 2008 
 
Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) Secretary General Yukio 
Hatoyama and other DPJ leaders will meet Dec. 19 with Kurt Campbell, 
who was deputy assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton 
administration, and they will also meet with other Democratic Party 
affiliates who were in defense-related key posts. The DPJ proposed 
meeting with them as they will visit Japan. The DPJ will seek their 
understanding for the party's standpoint opposing the government's 
plan to relocate the U.S. military's Futenma airfield in Ginowan, 
Okinawa Prefecture, within Okinawa Prefecture. The party has been 
calling for relocating the airfield elsewhere outside the island 
prefecture. 
 
In addition to Campbell, Joseph Nye, former assistant secretary of 
defense, and Michael Green, former adviser on Asia-Pacific affairs 
at the Department of Defense, will also attend the meeting. Those 
attending from the DPJ include DPJ Deputy President Naoto Kan and 
two DPJ vice presidents, Katsuya Okada and Seiji Maehara, in 
addition to Hatoyama. 
 
In the meeting, the DPJ will convey its stance against extending the 
Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling activities in the Indian 
Ocean but will tell them about its idea of conducting humanitarian 
and reconstruction assistance in Afghanistan premised on an 
armistice agreement. The DPJ will also stress that there will be no 
change in the party's stance of attaching importance to the alliance 
between Japan and the United States. 
 
4) DPJ rocking government, ruling camp with job security bills with 
intention to press them to cooperate for their enactment 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
 
TOKYO 00003409  004 OF 007 
 
 
December 16, 2008 
 
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) yesterday submitted to the Upper 
House four employment measures bills, including assistance for the 
lives of temporary workers whose labor contracts have been 
terminated, jointly with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the 
People's New Party (PNP). The DPJ is pressing the government and the 
ruling coalition to have the bills passed during the current Diet 
session. 
 
The four bills include an amendment to the Labor Contract Law, which 
regulates cancellation of job offers to new graduates, and a bill to 
secure housing and jobs, including lending houses or providing 
livelihood assistance benefits up to 100,000 yen a month to 
temporary workers who lost living places due to the termination of 
labor contracts. Its aim is to impress its speedy approach to the 
employment problem, while highlighting the government's lack of 
policy as can be seen in the postponement of the submission to the 
regular Diet session of the second supplementary budget bill for 
fiscal 2008, which includes employment measures. 
 
DPJ President Ozawa yesterday told reporters in Kyoto City: "How to 
see the old year out and the new year in is a serious problem. The 
government should have no objection to the idea of stabilizing the 
employment situation." DPJ Secretary General Hatoyama at his 
fund-raising party held in Tokyo appealed: "The extraordinary Diet 
session is not over yet. The approach of the government and the 
ruling parties are acting in a manner of making people think that 
the curtain came down. That is wrong." 
 
The DPJ's scenario is to adopt the bills in the Upper House before 
this weekend, send them to the Lower House and then to have the 
heads of the three opposition parties meet with Prime Minister Aso 
and press him to cooperate for the enactment of the bills. In this 
connection, the Upper House Diet Steering Committee, chaired by 
Takeo Nishioka, decided to have 11 bills submitted by the DPJ 
brought to the committee. Following the move, DPJ Diet Affairs 
Committee Chairman Kenji Yamaoka and Upper House Diet Steering 
Committee Chairman Susumu Yanase met and confirmed a policy of 
having the Upper House Welfare and Labor Committee enter into 
deliberations on the four employment measures bills on the 18th and 
adopt them the same day. 
 
5) Can Aso contain ruling bloc's opposition to specifying 
consumption tax hike in mid-term program? Relies heavily on Economic 
and Fiscal Policy Minister Yosano 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Excerpts) 
December 16, 2008 
 
The focus is now on whether Prime Minister Taro Aso can squelch the 
ruling bloc's opposition to specifying his stock argument of raising 
the consumption tax rate in fiscal 2011 in a mid-term tax reform 
program to be drawn up by the government. The prime minister's 
failure to demonstrate strong leadership is certain to weaken his 
grip on power. 
 
Before the House of Councillors Audit Committee yesterday, the prime 
minister reiterated his view, saying: "The basic idea is that the 
mid-term social welfare plan would not stand without considering a 
hike in the consumption tax (rate)." The prime minister first 
presented a plan to raise the consumption tax in three years' time 
 
TOKYO 00003409  005 OF 007 
 
 
in a press conference on October 30. On December 12, the ruling bloc 
presented a tax reform outline that did not specify any specific 
timing of raising the consumption tax. This promoted the prime 
minister to comment, "(Raising the rate) is the basic principle of 
the party of responsibility." 
 
With the next House of Representatives election approaching, 
opposition is strong in the New Komeito, with one senior member 
saying, "If raising the tax in three years' time is specified, we 
will have an uphill battle in the election." A cautious stance is 
widespread in the Liberal Democratic Party as well in consideration 
of the next Lower House election and relations with the New Komeito. 
In a fund-raising party held in Tokyo yesterday, former LDP 
Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa said: "There are matters that 
must be done before raising the tax. Speaking only of a tax hike is 
utterly irresponsible." 
 
Members supportive of specifying the tax hike include Tax Commission 
sub panel chairman Hakuo Yanagisawa and Policy Research Council 
Senior Deputy Chairman Hiroyuki Sonoda. The prime minister is 
especially counting on Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru 
Yosano. Aso exchanged views with Yosano at the Prime Minister's 
Office last evening. After the meeting, Aso expressed his 
expectations to the press corps, saying, "Economic and Fiscal Policy 
Minister Yosano is now coordinating views." 
 
Yosano plans to call a Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy meeting 
today to make a cabinet decision on the mid-term program on around 
December 20 when the Finance Ministry's fiscal 2009 budget plan is 
presented. Yosano reportedly takes a positive view about taking a 
legislative step along with tax system-related bills in early 
January. 
 
6) LDP's Koga suggests review of cooperation with New Komeito in 
proportional representation segment of Lower House election; Rift 
may be widened between two parties 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
December 16, 2008 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Election Strategy Council Chairman 
Makoto Koga met last night with the secretaries general of the 
factions of the LDP. In the meeting, Koga referred to a review of 
cooperative relationship with the New Komeito in the proportional 
representation segment of the House of Representatives election, 
although the LDP had promised to back the New Komeito's candidates 
for the proportional representation segment in return for the New 
Komeito's support for its candidates for electoral districts. There 
is already strong resistance in the New Komeito, with one senior 
member saying: "What is he talking about all of sudden?" The rift 
between the two ruling parties will inevitably be widened. 
 
According to participants in the meeting, one attendee pointed out: 
"I was told by a religious sect official that the LDP should cut its 
ties with the New Komeito. (If the LDP does so) former supporters 
will go back to the LDP." In response, Koga was quoted as saying: 
 
"I wonder if it is good for our party to let 180 proportional 
representation seats go to the New Komeito. We must win both 
electoral district and proportional representation seats or our 
party will lose power." 
 
 
TOKYO 00003409  006 OF 007 
 
 
Koga also reportedly said: 
 
"The question is how many votes the LDP can obtain in the 
proportional representation elections. We should stop saying that 
(LDP candidates) cannot win votes in the proportional representation 
segment. I am not recommended by the New Komeito." 
 
Following Koga, Election Strategy Council Deputy Chairman Yoshihide 
Suga also said: "Neither Prime Minister Taro Aso nor I am 
recommended (by the New Komeito)." 
 
The LDP and New Komeito have agreed in principle not to call on 
voters to vote for the New Komeito in their campaigning for the 
proportional representation election. However, the LDP supported the 
New Komeito candidates for the proportional representation segment 
in return for the New Komeito's back for LDP candidates in electoral 
districts. Koga's remarks appear to have been aimed at preventing 
conservative voters from distancing themselves from the LDP. 
 
Meanwhile, senior officials of the New Komeito and its chief backer, 
religious sect Soka Gakkai, last night desperately tried to find out 
Koga's true intention. One senior New Komeito member put his hands 
on his head, saying: "I wonder whether we might have pressed the LDP 
too hard to make concessions on such issues as the timing of a 
general election and the consumption tax." Another senior member, 
however, rebutted him: "Even if the LDP executive is considering 
ending election cooperation in the proportional representation 
segment, there are many LDP candidates who need our support." 
 
7) Aso again makes controversial remark, saying, "I was mistaken for 
an aged wanderer" 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Abridged slightly) 
December 16, 2008 
 
Prime Minister Taro Aso, who is prone to verbal gaffes, again made 
controversial comments on December 14 and 15. On Dec. 14, Aso 
visited the Kitakyushu Eco Town that houses many recycling 
facilities. During the tour, Aso said: "It's amazing to see that the 
private sector is trying to make money for shinogi (with 
environmental measures)." The word shinogi connoting raising funds 
is often used by gangsters. The use of the word by the prime 
minister is likely to be criticized as lacking in disgrace. 
 
The prime minister attended a House of Councillors Audit Committee 
meeting yesterday. In the session, one asked Aso for his measures to 
improve physical health. In response, Aso said while citing his 
regular morning walk: "I take a walk early in the morning at my age. 
Sometimes I was mistaken for an aged wanderer. I was also called to 
stop many times." Later, Aso met reporters at the Prime Minister's 
Office in which one reporter said, "Your statement sounded 
inconsiderate." Aso replied: "Why? I don't understand what you 
mean." 
 
8) Government to downwardly revise economic growth estimate for next 
fiscal year to 0 PERCENT  for first time in seven years 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
December 16, 2008 
 
Concerning its economic outlook for fiscal 2009, the government on 
December 15 entered into coordination to downwardly revise the real 
 
TOKYO 00003409  007 OF 007 
 
 
growth rate, excluding price fluctuations, to 0 PERCENT  and the 
nominal growth rate, which is close to the actual sentiments of 
households and companies, to 0.1 PERCENT . It had estimated a real 
growth rate for fiscal 2009 at 1.6 PERCENT  as of July. However, in 
view of the rapid deterioration of the economy, it will slash its 
real growth rate forecast to 0 PERCENT  for the first time in seven 
years. It plans to adopt the revised forecasts at a cabinet meeting 
to be held on the 19th. 
 
The government will also significantly cut its forecast of growth 
for fiscal 2008 from the level released in July -- 1.3 PERCENT  for 
real growth rate and 0.3 PERCENT  for nominal growth rate. It had 
projected 2.0 PERCENT  for real growth and 2.1 PERCENT  for nominal 
growth as of January this year. However, with the impact of the 
financial crisis becoming more serious than anticipated, it was 
apparently baffled in its calculations. 
 
The government's economic outlook projects feasible and desirable 
figures that can be envisaged under its policy management. It is 
different in nature from growth forecasts released by private-sector 
economists. 
 
SCHIEFFER