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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 003357 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 12/10/08 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Age of crisis: Gist of keynote speech by Yukio Okamoto, foreign 
affairs commentator  (Yomiuri) 
 
(2) LDP's reform-oriented inclination dwindling (Asahi) 
 
(3) FA-18 training to be continued (Okinawa Times) 
 
(4) Prime Minister Taro Aso delivered dumb speech in DPJ President 
Ichiro Ozawa's home district (Shukan Gendai) 
 
(5) TOP HEADLINES 
 
(6) EDITORIALS 
 
(7) Prime Minister's schedule, December 9 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Age of crisis: Gist of keynote speech by Yukio Okamoto, foreign 
affairs commentator 
 
YOMIURI (Page 13) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
For many countries, this was an extraordinarily bad year, I think. 
As the worst events of this year, the Russia-Georgia dispute, 
rampant piracy, and the terrorist attacks in Mumbai can be cited in 
the security area, and the steep rise in oil prices and the global 
financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy can be 
listed in the economic area. 
 
The world has fractured with the collapse of the cold-war structure, 
and moves toward bloc formation have accelerated. This trend can be 
symbolized by the 27 countries that joined the European Union (EU) 
and by the expansion of members of the North Atlantic Treaty 
Organization (NATO). But such moves resulted in a clash of interests 
between Russia and former western countries over Georgia. 
 
The Ukraine lies ahead as another potential problem. Ukraine was the 
heart of the economy of the Soviet Union. If the U.S. strongly urges 
it to join NATO, global security will inevitably be affected 
seriously. President-elect Barack Obama's pledge to "cooperate with 
Russia in areas that need cooperation" has left the possibility of a 
dialogue, so this pledge merits appreciation, in this sense. Now 
that oil prices have begun to decline, it would be a good 
opportunity for Japan to discuss matters with Russia. 
 
Japan-U.S. cooperation is the bedrock of Japan's diplomacy, but 
Japan has not created its own principle paradigm. What kind of 
nation does Japan want to be? If Japan continues to just set aside 
troublesome tasks, Japan will never be trusted by other countries. 
 
In the security area, in particular, since Japan did not bring 
closure to its war, many people now believe that staying away from 
war or weapons is a sort of contribution to peace. For them, using 
weapons is evil in any case. Saying their assertion came out of 
respect for life sounds good, but the approach Japan took in the 
Gulf War while explaining that Japanese people's lives are more 
valuable than anything in the world ended in failure. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003357  002 OF 008 
 
 
More than 40 countries have made contributions in Afghanistan. The 
Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) has supported patrol operations 
by coalition forces in the Indian Ocean. Narcotics are transported 
from Afghanistan to Somalia, while weapons are shipped from Somalia 
to Afghanistan. The patrol operations are aimed at cutting off the 
transport routes. Recently, however, armed pirates have appeared 
quite often along the same routes. Many ships connected to Japan 
have suffered damage, and a large tanker was attacked in April. We 
must not forget the fact that the crew of the tanker was rescued by 
a German military ship that had been refueled by the MSDF and was a 
member of the coalition force. 
 
The world has been forming a "guard community," but some in Japan 
have insisted that the Japanese government should withdraw the MSDF 
from the Indian Ocean. Is such a stance is proper for Japan? If it 
is impossible to make a judgment about what is good and bad, Japan 
may become a rootless nation in the international community. 
 
On the bilateral side, it is more important to consider what kind of 
relations Japan should establish with the U.S. than to predict what 
policy the incoming Obama administration might take toward Japan. In 
response to Japan's request, the Reagan administration succeeded in 
persuading the Soviet Union to disband all its intermediate-range 
missiles deployed on the east side of the Urals. As shown by this, 
it is necessary to reconstruct the Japan-U.S. alliance to make it 
firmer. To that end, Japan should reconsider now how it should 
contribute to the international community on the security front. 
 
(2) LDP's reform-oriented inclination dwindling 
 
ASAHI (Page 1) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
Public spending on economic pump-priming measures and lifetime 
employment for job security used to be typical of Japan's systems. 
Most political parties desire to maintain these systems, according 
to findings from a survey of prospective candidates expected to run 
in the next election for the House of Representatives. In 
particular, those who are expected to run from the ruling Liberal 
Democratic Party have such an inclination. The LDP's reform-oriented 
inclination in the days of Prime Minister Koizumi has now vanished. 
 
After the Aso cabinet's inauguration in September, the Asahi Shimbun 
and the University of Tokyo's Masaki Taniguchi office conducted a 
joint survey of about 9,000 prospective candidates and analyzed 
answers from 735 persons. 
 
In 2005, the House of Representatives was dissolved for a general 
election over the liberalization of state-run postal services. In 
that election, the LDP shifted to a reform of Japan's time-honored 
systems. This time around, however, the LDP has tended to backpedal, 
inclining much more than in the earlier 2003 survey toward 
maintaining Japan's traditional systems. Nowadays, the LDP has 
changed its attitude over public spending in particular. In the 
latest survey, respondents were asked if they thought the government 
should increase its public spending for the time being on economic 
pump-priming measures. To this question, affirmative answers-"yes" 
and "yes to a certain degree"-totaled 77 PERCENT  among the LDP's 
prospective candidates, showing a jump of 60 percentage points from 
17 PERCENT  in 2005. When asked if jobs should be secured with more 
government investments in public works projects, affirmative answers 
accounted for 58 PERCENT  among the LDP's prospective candidates, up 
 
TOKYO 00003357  003 OF 008 
 
 
from 42 PERCENT  in 2005. 
 
Meanwhile, in the case of those who are expected to run from the 
leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto), the 
proportion of answers in favor of increasing public spending on 
economic pump-priming measures doubled from 14 PERCENT . Even so, 
the figure was 31 PERCENT . Among the DPJ's prospective candidates, 
42 PERCENT  were opposed to the option of making more government 
investments in public works projects, leveling off from 39 PERCENT 
in 2005. The DPJ also inclined to maintain Japan's typical systems 
but maintained a reform-oriented inclination. 
 
When it comes to security and foreign policies, the LDP is more 
hawkish. Asked if Japan should participate in collective 
self-defense, "yes" accounted for 73 PERCENT  among the LDP's 
prospective candidates, up from 50 PERCENT  in 2005. This is 
conceivably attributable in part to arguments over the right of 
collective self-defense in the days of the Abe cabinet. Among the 
DPJ's prospective candidates, the proportion of those in favor of a 
further defense buildup was 17 PERCENT , showing a decrease from 32 
PERCENT  in 2005. As seen from these figures, the DPJ has turned 
dovish. 
 
Accordingly, the two parties' respective policy standpoints are now 
more widely apart than in 2005, making it easy to see the axis of 
confrontation between the two parties. 
 
(3) FA-18 training to be continued 
 
OKINAWA TIMES (Top play) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
In connection with the recent crash of a U.S. Marine Corps FA-18D 
fighter jet in the suburbs of San Diego, California, the press 
division of the Marine Corps in Okinawa told the Okinawa Times 
yesterday that the Marine Corps' aircraft operations are continuing 
to operate as usual. "We cannot predict how the accident will affect 
our air troops," a press division officer said. This officer 
explained that FA-18 fighter jets, which are on a training mission 
to Kadena Air Base from the Iwakuni base in Yamaguchi Prefecture, 
will continue their training in Okinawa Prefecture until tomorrow as 
scheduled. 
 
The FA-18, classified into four types from A to D, may have 
something wrong with the hinge of the ailerons and flaps. The U.S. 
Navy and Marine Corps therefore began in late October to check about 
480 FA-18 fighter jets based in the United States. In November, 10 
FA-18s, including two in the United States, were grounded. 
 
In response to the FA-18D accident, the Military Base Affairs 
Division of the Okinawa prefectural government yesterday inquired of 
a public affairs officer at the headquarters of the Marine Corps in 
Okinawa about the FA-18's safety. The officer explained, "All the 
FA-18 fighter jets were checked up before their flights from 
Iwakuni. 
 
Takashi Toyota, a spokesman for the Defense Ministry, told the press 
yesterday: "We've now made inquiries regarding the U.S. Forces 
Japan. But they say they're still looking into this matter. So we 
don't know anything in concrete terms yet." 
 
Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima said yesterday, "When there is such an 
 
TOKYO 00003357  004 OF 008 
 
 
accident, I have the feeling that I don't want them to fly until we 
find out (the cause of the accident). But I'd like to abstain from 
commenting until we have official information." 
 
The Marine Corps is currently deploying about 35 planes-including 
FA-18 and AV-8 Harrier vertical takeoff and landing jets-to Kadena 
from Iwakuni for joint training conducted with the U.S. Air Force 
from Dec. 1. The press division took the position that in 
consideration of operational safety, it cannot reveal the number of 
FA-18 jets flown from Iwakuni to Okinawa. 
 
(4) Prime Minister Taro Aso delivered dumb speech in DPJ President 
Ichiro Ozawa's home district 
 
Shukan Gendai (Full) (Pages 36-37) 
December 20, 2008 
 
Prime Minister Taro Aso (68) on November 29 traveled to Democratic 
Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa's (66) home district in 
Iwate Prefecture on a stumping tour. He made his first speech at an 
open-air parking lot at the Aeon Super Center two kilometers away 
from Tohoku Shinkansen Ichinoseki Station. About 1,000 people were 
there to hear his speech. Most of them were in their 60's and 70's. 
There were few people at their working prime or young people. Even 
when the prime minister appeared, few people applauded. There was no 
enthusiasm. Wearing a blue polka-dot tie, Aso breezily climbed on 
top of a campaign car and started his speech: "Please raise your 
hand if you think I look better in the flesh than my in the picture 
saying "For a start, I will tackle the economy" in that poster over 
there?" 
 
He all of a sudden asked the audience to raise their hands, if they 
agreed. However, the audience was bewildered. Aso expected them to 
reply, "In the flesh." He then would have responded, "Mom, you have 
good judgment." This is the usual pattern he exchanges conversation 
with audiences, which he is very good at. However, it did not work 
this time. Pulling himself together, the prime minister thanked the 
audience for its support during the LDP presidential campaign. He 
then touched on the package of economic stimulus measures, while 
attacking the Ozawa-led DPJ. So far so good. 
 
However, he gradually began coming into his own and displayed his 
ignorance: "General Motors, Ford and Chrysler may go under. The 
Japanese equivalent of the Big Three -- Toyota, Nissan and 
Mitsubishi -- might fail." 
 
If he wanted to liken Japan's three largest automakers to the Big 
Three in the U.S., he should have cited Toyota, Honda and Nissan. It 
was years ago when Honda's share became smaller than Mitsubishi's. 
If a prime minister like Aso, who lacks such common knowledge, 
explains the crisis of the global economy, people would just feel 
uneasy, wondering whether it is all right to have such a person at 
the top. 
 
Prime minister, do you know the difference between the strong yen 
and the weak yen? 
 
Aso's ignorant manner of speaking was out in full blast, as can be 
seen in his mistaking the strong yen for the weak yen. He said: "The 
value of the yen has dropped. Sorry, the value of the yen has risen 
against the dollar." 
 
 
TOKYO 00003357  005 OF 008 
 
 
He then noted: "Newspapers write only negative things. However, 
gasoline prices have gone down due to the strong yen, haven't 
they?" 
 
He gradually slipped into a cruder language: "The gasoline price has 
gone down from 180 yen to 120 yen, which means the price has gone 
down by one-third. You are enjoying such benefits as the strong yen 
and cheaper gasoline, aren't you? Am I not correct? " 
 
He somehow took an overbearing attitude. At any rate, is the fall in 
gasoline prices thanks to the strong yen? It should be a matter of 
common knowledge that gasoline prices have gone down sharply with 
speculative money withdrawn from the market due to the financial 
crisis. 
 
Furthermore, referring to his proposal for flatly lowering holiday 
expressway tolls to 1,000 yen, the prime minister noted, "The 
expressway toll from Tokyo to Osaka costs 30,000 yen. It's very 
expensive." 
 
The Tomei expressway toll from Tokyo to Osaka is, in fact, about 
10,000 yen for a passenger car. He does not know the correct toll, 
presumably because he has not paid the toll himself. It is no 
wonder, as he once said that a cup noodle costs 400 yen. Such a 
person cannot realize the rigor of people's lives. 
 
Touting his cash benefit plan, he said: "What do you think brings 
the most benefit? We have conducted research and found that it was 
traditional New Year dishes. Stores are unusually inundated with 
reservations for expensive dishes." 
 
We have not heard that New Year dishes are selling well because of 
the distribution of cash benefits, which has yet to be decided in 
the Diet. A person in charge of public relations at Seibu Department 
Store ruled out Aso's statement: "It is true that the sales of New 
Year dishes have increased 5 PERCENT , compared with the previous 
year, but that is not due to the impact of the cash benefit. The 
increase is presumably because more people will spend New Year 
holidays with their family at home." 
 
Keio Department Store also made a similar reply. A public relations 
officer at the Japan Department Store Association noted with a 
forced smile: "It would be difficult to find any connection between 
cash benefits and New Year dishes (laughs). I hope the prime 
minister will quickly take a policy that will shore up consumer 
mind." 
 
To begin with, those who are really in need of flat-sum cash 
benefits have no room for ordering expensive New Year dishes. 
 
This is how things always go with Aso. There is no way of bridging 
the gap between Prime Minister Aso and people. 
 
"I will not quit, even if support ratings for my cabinet fall to 5 
PERCENT " 
 
The prime minister then made trips to the Iwate No. 4 Constituency, 
Ozawa's home constituency, and returned to Tokyo the same day. In 
reality, his footing is unsteady even before he goes into battle 
against the Ozawa-led DPJ. Opposition to key issues, including the 
reallocation of tax revenues for road construction, the sale of 
government-held postal shares and a revision to the basic policy 
 
TOKYO 00003357  006 OF 008 
 
 
guidelines on economic and fiscal management and structural reforms, 
is mounting within the LDP. 
 
On November 26, 15 LDP members, including former State Minister for 
Financial Services and Administrative Reform Yoshimi Watanabe and 
former Chief Cabinet Minister Yasuhisa Shiozaki, held a meeting of 
the Voluntary Group of Lawmakers Seeking Immediate Policy 
Realization. Former Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa reportedly 
repaired relations with his supposedly political enemy State 
Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano on that 
occasion, playing mah-jongg. On December 2, the members of the 
Zuirin-Kai, chaired by Acting Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara, 
met after a long interval. Yoshimi Watanabe also took part in the 
meeting. 
 
President Ozawa is trying to poke his nose in the LDP, which is 
becoming unsettled. One senior DPJ official noted: "President Ozawa 
is trying to encourage LDP members to bolt their party, by pulling 
out DPJ candidates from constituencies where they, including 
Shiozaki, for instance, will likely face a difficult election." Diet 
Affairs Committee Chairman Kenji Yamaoka predicted that some LDP 
members would secede from their party around the year's end." Ozawa 
in early October secretly met at a Japanese restaurant with LDP 
member Koichi Kato and former Secretary General Taku Yamasaki 
through Acting Chairman Shizuka Kamei of the People's New Party 
(PNP). Kamei reportedly proposed, "How about a Prime Minister 
Kato?" 
 
After the party head talks on November 28, Ozawa dined with 
Secretary General Hatoyama, New Party Japan Representative Yasuo 
Tanaka and others at a sushi restaurant in Tokyo. Ozawa during the 
meal proposed forming an ultra-grand coalition election control 
cabinet joined by all parties. 
 
Behind this initiative are presumably Yosano and Tsuneo Watanabe, 
chairman of the Yomiuri Shimbun Group Head Office -- both are close 
to Ozawa. 
 
Prime Minister Aso is reportedly going around saying arrogantly, "I 
will not step down, even if public support ratings for my cabinet 
slip to 5 PERCENT ." One senior New Komeito official is alarmed 
about Aso's move, saying: "The prime minister is a naughty boy. If 
everybody thinks that there will be no general election, he then 
wants to hold an election. There could be a Lower House dissolution 
at Christmas." Political commentator Hisayuki Miyake noted, "After 
all, the LDP has no other choice but to contest the next election 
with the Aso cabinet. If the DPJ adopts a hard-line policy, it would 
have to resort to the 60-day rule. It is impossible to dissolve the 
Lower House between April and May. The only possibility would be a 
dissolution at the outset of the regular Diet session. Chances are 
high that if the Diet is dissolved, a DPJ administration will come 
into existence. A major reorganization of political circles will 
then begin." 
 
Does he mean that we will soon become unable to hear Aso's 
characteristic way of speaking? 
 
(5) TOP HEADLINES 
 
Asahi, Mainichi, Yomiuri, Sankei and Tokyo Shimbun: 
Sony to cut 16,000 jobs, shut down 10 PERCENT  of plants worldwide 
 
 
TOKYO 00003357  007 OF 008 
 
 
Nikkei: 
Toshiba, Daiichi-Sankyo, Nittsu and other major firms see 
difficulties raising funds in market, shifting to bank borrowing 
 
Akahata: 
MHLW informs regional labor bureaus to guide firms not to dismiss 
regular workers 
 
(6) EDITORIALS 
 
Asahi: 
(1) TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) 
survey: Classes must be attractive 
(2) Decentralization requires solid politics 
 
Mainichi: 
(1) Swift uniform step for uninsured children good news 
(2) TIMSS survey: Test scores not everything 
 
Yomiuri: 
(1) Increased lending key to slowing bankruptcies 
(2) TIMSS survey: Children's interest in mathematics and science 
must be increased 
 
Nikkei: 
(1) Obama-version New Deal reflects sense of crisis 
(2) Sony's restructuring plan shocking 
 
Sankei: 
(1) Chinese ships' incursion into Japanese territorial waters 
serious 
(2) TIMSS survey: Japanese students can do better 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
(1) Is Aso administration capable of reorganizing government branch 
offices? 
(2) Make mathematics and science fun to study 
 
Akahata: 
(1) 1 trillion yen bank recapitalization plan requires strict 
guidance and supervision 
 
(7) Prime Minister's schedule, December 9 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
08:59 
Met in the Diet Building with Economy, Trade and Industry Minister 
Nikai, Agriculture Minister Ishiba, Foreign Minister Nakasone, 
Finance Minister Nakagawa, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura, and 
others. 
 
09:32 
Attended a cabinet meeting. Nakagawa stayed behind. 
 
10:04 
Met Social Democratic Party President Fukushima and others. 
 
10:43 
Met Special Advisor Yamaguchi at the Kantei. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003357  008 OF 008 
 
 
11:02 
Met Nakagawa, Vice Finance Minister Sugimoto, Budget Bureau Director 
General Tango. Followed by Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Uruma. 
 
12:47 
Met former Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura. 
 
13:28 
Met former Finance Minister Omi. Followed by Assistant Deputy Chief 
Cabinet Secretary Fukuda and Comprehensive Ocean Policy Office 
Executive Secretary Oba. 
 
14:00 
Met members of the All Japan Ryokan Association, including Chairman 
Sato. Later met Uruma. 
 
15:10 
Met Vice Foreign Minister Yabunaka and Deputy Foreign Minister 
Sasae. 
 
16:09 
Met Russian Presidential Administration Chief Naryshkin. Followed by 
Environment Minister Saito, Vice Environment Minister Nishio, and 
Global Environment Bureau Director General Terada. 
17:30 Met Lower House member Yaichi Tanigawa. Followed by Kawamura. 
 
18:15 
Attended a meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy. 
 
19:30 
Met Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsumoto. 
 
20:23 
Attended a meeting of his supporters' group at the Hotel Seiyo 
Ginza. 
 
22:35 
Returned to his private residence in Kamiyama-cho. 
 
SCHIEFFER