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RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 2736
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2848

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 003345 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 12/10/08 
 
Index: 
 
1) Ambassador Schieffer at private symposium expresses hope that 
Japan would dispatch civilians to assist Afghanistan's 
reconstruction  (Yomiuri) 
 
North Korea problem: 
2) Six-Party Talks: China submits proposal for verification of North 
Korea's nuclear commitment, but Japanese delegate Saiki sees "severe 
outlook"  (Sankei) 
3) No contact between Japan and North Korea at the Six-Party Talks, 
reflecting Pyongyang's even tougher stance toward Tokyo  (Tokyo 
Shimbun) 
 
4) Prime Minister Aso and visiting Russian dignitary agree to early 
Putin visit  (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
5) Revealed that 30 PERCENT  of billeting for Komaki Base personnel 
leased from APA, sponsor of the history essay contest that led to 
ASDF chief Tamogami's dismissal  (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
Politics in turmoil: 
6) Yomiuri poll: 65 PERCENT  of Japanese would entrust the 
government to the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), despites doubts 
about party's capability  (Yomiuri) 
7) With Aso's popularity plummeting, LDP lawmakers rushing to 
distance selves from a failing administration  (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
8) LDP groups being formed one after another, including one in which 
former Prime Minister Koizumi showed up to address its meeting 
(Tokyo Shimbun) 
9) DPJ hopes LDP defectors will head its way to break ruling party's 
two-thirds hold on Lower House seats that allows overrides of Upper 
House rejected bills  (Tokyo Shimbun) 
10) DPJ looking on quietly to see if the LDP self-destructs, but 
worried about realignment possibility  (Yomiuri) 
 
Economy in trouble: 
11) Economy is in even worse shape than government had predicted 
(Yomiuri) 
12) Deficit bonds issued to cover the budget will be on a massive 35 
trillion yen scale, a retreat from sound fiscal practices 
(Mainichi) 
 
13) Difficult to find compromise in latest round of WTO 
negotiations, with latest clash over import restrictions  (Asahi) 
 
Articles: 
 
1) U.S. hopes Japan will send civilians to Afghanistan: Schieffer 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
U.S. Ambassador to Japan Schieffer yesterday participated in a 
symposium on Japan's international security activities at Keidanren 
Kaikan Hall at Otamachi in Tokyo, during which he expressed hopes 
that Japan would send civilians to Afghanistan to help with that 
country's reconstruction. The symposium was held by the Net 
Journalist Association and co-sponsored by the Yomiuri Shimbun. 
 
"Many people say Japan can do more for Afghanistan," Schieffer said. 
 
TOKYO 00003345  002 OF 009 
 
 
He added: "To avoid 'Japan passing' under the Obama administration, 
Japan should say what Japan can do in Afghanistan. We can understand 
that Japan cannot send the Self-Defense Forces due to constitutional 
constraints. However, Afghanistan needs hospitals, schools, and 
polling facilities. It's possible for civilians to do such work if 
they go there." 
 
The symposium was held with the participation of ambassadors and 
ministers to Japan from eight countries and Japanese opinion 
leaders. 
 
2) China prepares draft for nuclear verification 
 
SANKEI (Page 1) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
BEIJING-Chief delegates to the six-party talks on North Korea's 
denuclearization held the second day of consultations yesterday at 
the Diaoyutai State Guest House, and China, hosting the six-party 
talks, presented a draft document to be discussed regarding how to 
verify North Korea's nuclear declaration. Their plenary meeting 
ended in 10 minutes. After that, each country went over the draft 
and stated its views to China. In addition, Japan held consultations 
and coordinated with China, the United States, and Russia. 
 
The draft has yet to be unveiled. However, Japan's chief delegate, 
Foreign Ministry Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Director General 
Akitaka Saiki, told reporters yesterday evening: "There was much 
room to improve the draft documentation. Japan, the United States, 
South Korea, and Russia worked together and presented ideas (to 
China)." However, Saiki also said it was difficult to foresee how 
the talks would turn out. 
 
North Korea has refused to specify in writing the sampling that is 
needed to verify the amount of extracted plutonium that can be used 
for nuclear weapons. As it stands, North Korea is still far apart 
from the other five countries. The draft document does not refer to 
sampling, but Saiki said it used an expression close to that. 
Assistant Secretary of State Hill, the chief U.S. delegate, told 
reporters that there was nothing strange in particular about the 
draft document. 
 
China has informally notified the other six-party members of a 
schedule for consultations, and the chief delegates are to hold 
consultations through today. Meanwhile, Japan has been calling for 
bilateral talks with North Korea about the pending issue of Japanese 
nationals abducted to North Korea. In this regard, Saiki said North 
Korea has shown no action at all on that. 
 
3) No contact between Japan and North Korea at six-party talks due 
to North Korea's increasingly hard-line stand against Japan 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
Takayuki Shimizu, Beijing 
 
In the six-party talks on North Korea's denuclearization held on 
Dec. 8-9, Japan and North Korea remained at odds on the 9th over 
methods for verifying nuclear information supplied by Pyongyang and 
economic and energy aid to that nation. The Japanese government 
expected in this round to see negotiations on a reinvestigation into 
 
TOKYO 00003345  003 OF 009 
 
 
the whereabouts of the Japanese nationals abducted by North Korean 
agents move forward, but there was no chance for Japan to make 
contact with the North even on the second day of the talks. Although 
North Korea agreed to carry out a reinvestigation in the talks with 
Japan in August, Pyongyang has yet to fulfill its promise. 
 
A Japanese informed source indicated that it was difficult for Japan 
and North Korea to hold in-depth negotiations on the abduction 
issue, remarking: "Even if the two countries hold talks, they will 
go nowhere." 
 
In this round of talks, "Japan must urge the North to implement the 
items agreed on in August, including the abduction issue," noted 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura. The Japanese government 
unofficially asked Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan, North Korea's 
chief negotiator of the six-party talks, for bilateral talks. 
 
But Japan is taking the lead in calling for the setting in writing 
methods for verifying information, including taking samples from 
nuclear facilities. The North has rejected this proposal. North 
Korea also has heightened its intensifying its offensive against 
Japan, showing no signs of responding to Japan's call for bilateral 
talks. 
 
There was a scene in a past session where the top Japanese envoy 
negotiated with Kim in person in a dinner party held after the 
plenary meeting to accept Japan's proposal for holding bilateral 
talks. This time, however, the Japanese envoy left the hall early on 
the night of Dec. 8, the first day of the talks. 
 
Japanese chief negotiator Saiki told reporters that even on the 
night of the 9th, "there was not such an atmosphere (for Japan and 
North Korea to make contact)." 
 
4) Aso agrees with Russian presidential administration chief to 
arrange early Japan visit by Putin 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
Prime Minister Aso met at the Prime Minister's Office yesterday 
afternoon with Sergey Naryshkin, chief of the administration of the 
Russian president. The two leaders agreed to arrange a visit to 
Japan by Prime Minister Putin early next year and try to move 
negotiations forward on the Northern Territories issue. Aso said: "I 
hope to give shape (to a roadmap) to resolve the territorial issue 
when Mr. Putin visits Japan." Naryshkin replied: "President Dmitry 
Medvedev instructed administrative officials after the earlier 
Japan-Russia summit to explore ways to resolve (the territorial 
issue) with an accelerated approach." Both sides also agreed on the 
view that the two countries should speed up negotiations on 
concluding a criminal investigation mutual assistance treaty and a 
nuclear power cooperation agreement. 
 
5) 30 PERCENT  of flats for billeting Komatsu Base personnel leased 
from APA Group, according to government's written reply on Tamogami 
issue 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
The government revealed in its written reply adopted in a cabinet 
 
TOKYO 00003345  004 OF 009 
 
 
meeting yesterday that 30 PERCENT  of the flats and hotel rooms 
rented outside the base for billeting personnel at Komatsu Air Base 
in Ishikawa Prefecture over the past six years were leased from 
condominium developer APA Group. 
 
The APA Group organized the essay contest that led to Toshio 
Tamogami's dismissal as Air Self-Defense Force chief of staff over 
his controversial essay justifying Japan's war of aggression. The 
president of the APA Group is an influential supporter of Komatsu 
Air Base, and he and Tamogami are old acquaintances. 
 
According to the written reply, Komatsu Air Base concluded contracts 
for 22 cases worth approximately 3.06 million yen between fiscal 
2003 and the end of this October. Of these, eight contracts worth 
about 930,000 yen were with the APA Group. The values of contracts 
concluded with the APA Group accounted for more than 70 PERCENT  of 
the total value in fiscal 2005 and more than 50 PERCENT  in fiscal 
¶2003. 
 
6) Poll: 65 PERCENT  opt for DPJ to run government 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
According to findings from a recent face-to-face nationwide public 
opinion survey conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun on Dec. 6-7, the 
proportion of those who think it is all right to entrust the leading 
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) with the reins of 
government reached 65 PERCENT , up 7 points from the last survey 
taken in October. The proportion of negative answers decreased 7 
points to 31 PERCENT . Following the Abe and Fukuda cabinet, the Aso 
cabinet, with the plunge in its popularity, is at the "terminal 
stage" of its administration. The survey shows that nearly 
two-thirds are now in favor of a change of government in which the 
ruling and opposition parties would trade places. 
 
The proportion of "would not mind entrusting the government" to the 
DPJ rose from 38 PERCENT  to 45 PERCENT  even among those who 
support the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Among those who support 
the New Komeito, the LDP's coalition partner, it increased from a 
little over 10 PERCENT  to 45 PERCENT . Even those supporting the 
ruling coalition seem to realize the limitations of an LDP-led 
coalition government. Among those with no particular party 
affiliation, the figure rose from 61 PERCENT  to 66 PERCENT . 
 
In the survey, respondents were also asked if they thought the LDP 
was competent to govern. To this question, 61 PERCENT  answered 
"yes," with 35 PERCENT  saying "no." When asked about the DPJ, "yes" 
accounted for 50 PERCENT , with "no" at 43 PERCENT . As seen from 
these figures, the LDP remains above the DPJ in the public's 
competency evaluation. When it comes to the LDP, however, "yes" had 
decreased 6 points from the last survey. The DPJ rose 4 points. The 
gap between the two parties decreased by almost half. 
 
Among LDP supporters, 89 PERCENT  answered "yes" when asked if they 
thought the LDP is competent to govern, showing a slight decrease 
from 91 PERCENT  in the last survey. Among those unaffiliated, the 
figure dropped from 60 PERCENT  to 53 PERCENT . 
 
A total of 3,000 persons were chosen across the nation, and answers 
were obtained from 1,747 persons (58.2 PERCENT ). 
 
 
TOKYO 00003345  005 OF 009 
 
 
7) Increasing number of LDP lawmakers distancing selves from Aso; 
LDP groups hold meeting one after another; Koizumi returns to front 
stage 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Excerpts) 
December 10, 2008 
 
Shunsuke Shimizu 
 
Filled with alarm about plummeting support ratings for Prime 
Minister Taro Aso's cabinet, those groups in the ruling Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) unhappy with Aso's administration held 
meetings one after another yesterday. A growing number of LDP 
members are turning their backs on the prime minister. The major 
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), too, has ratcheted up 
its offensive against the extremely unpopular cabinet, the aim being 
to maneuver toward taking over the reins of government through the 
next Lower House election. The prime minister is now besieged from 
all sides. 
 
A group to maintain and promote postal privatization met yesterday 
afternoon at LDP headquarters. 
 
Appearing before the some 60 LDP lawmakers gathered at the meeting, 
former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said: "I want you to clearly 
recall what the (postal) election three years was all about." 
 
An LDP project team on reviewing the postal privatization plan also 
met at LDP headquarters at around the same time. Koizumi described 
this as a puzzling move. 
 
There is a move in the LDP to revise the spending-cut policy course 
that is based on the basic economic and fiscal policy guidelines for 
¶2006. One attendant criticized the anti-postal-privatization move, 
saying: "It is the wrong direction to return the country to the days 
before the Koizumi reform initiative." 
 
Since stepping down as prime minister in 2006, Koizumi has been 
abstaining from active political moves, except for the previous LDP 
presidential race in which he supported the candidacy of former 
Defense Minister Yuriko Koike. Nevertheless, driven by a sense of 
crisis over the move to back away from the structural reform drive 
under the Aso administration, Koizumi seems to have returned to the 
front stage. 
 
A group of like-minded lawmakers seeking the swift implementation of 
policies, including such junior and mid-level members as former 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki and former Administrative 
Reform Minister Yoshimi Watanabe and former Administrative Reform 
Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, also met at LDP headquarters yesterday. 
The number of members, who demand that Aso present a second fiscal 
2008 supplementary budget to the current Diet session, increased 
from 24 last month to 48. 
 
Former Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa and others are also 
scheduled to hold a preparatory meeting on Dec. 1 on reforming the 
social security system. 
 
Members of such groups have all emphasized that toppling the Aso 
cabinet was not their objective. 
 
8) Aso desperate to stop LDP lawmakers from moving away from him; 
 
TOKYO 00003345  006 OF 009 
 
 
Chief cabinet secretary calls on heavyweights 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
December 10, 2008 
 
Kei Sato 
 
Acutely alarmed by plummeting support ratings for his cabinet and a 
growing number of LDP lawmakers turning their backs on him, Prime 
Minister Taro Aso has begun making efforts to keep a tight rein on 
the LDP. 
 
From Dec. 8 through the 9th, after sagging support ratings were 
reported, Aso telephoned former prime ministers and faction heads to 
tell them: "I am going to send the chief cabinet secretary. If you 
have anything, please tell him." 
 
At the prime minister's order, Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo 
Kawamura called on former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Komura 
faction head and former Foreign Minister Masahiko Koumura on Dec. 8 
and former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and others on Dec. 9 to ask 
for their cooperation in running the Aso administration. 
 
Kawamura quoted Fukuda as saying: "(The prime minister) should make 
utmost efforts for getting the (fiscal 2009) budget enacted without 
thinking of Lower House dissolution for a snap general election." 
 
Before long, Aso plans to hold talks with former Secretary General 
Hidenao Nakagawa, who keeps his distance from the Aso 
administration, to win anti-Aso forces over to his side. 
 
About the purpose of the series of talks, Kawamura explained in a 
press briefing yesterday: "We need to seek advice on how to overcome 
(the crisis of the administration)." 
 
The prime minister has tended to slight influential party members, 
such as faction heads and former prime ministers, while giving 
important posts to Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, his close 
friend, and his secretaries. With many junior and midlevel members 
moving away from Aso, the prime minister seems to have found that he 
can rely only on the factions and heavyweights. 
 
But under the single-seat constituency system, tightening control 
over factions no longer works. Whether the prime minister can stop 
party members drifting away is unclear. Furthermore, putting high 
priority on the factions, which have been regarded as a symbol of 
the old LDP, might be criticized as returning to its former self. 
Aso's efforts might end up accelerating the trend in the party. 
 
9) To block two-thirds override vote, DPJ to focus on LDP members 
rebelling against cash handout plan 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
December 10, 2008 
 
Kei Sato 
 
In view of the trend in the LDP of lawmakers distancing themselves 
from Prime Minister Aso, the major opposition Democratic Party of 
Japan has begun shifting its focus to debates in the regular Diet 
session early next year. Specifically, the party's focus is on a 
fiscal 2008 second supplementary budget and related bills to finance 
 
TOKYO 00003345  007 OF 009 
 
 
the flat-sum cash handout plan. The DPJ figures that if some ruling 
coalition members revolted against the bloc's decision under fierce 
pressure from the DPJ, the ruling coalition would not be able to 
readopt those bills with a two-thirds vote in the Lower House and 
that would result in either the resignation of the Aso cabinet or 
Lower House dissolution. 
 
In order for the ruling bloc to implement the fixed-sum cash 
benefits plan, which the DPJ opposes, the bill must be readopted in 
the Lower House. The LDP and the New Komeito hold a total of 335 
seats in the Lower House. If 17 ruling coalition members act against 
their parties' decision, the ruling bloc would not be able to reach 
the necessary number of seats, which is 319. 
 
In an on opinion poll conducted in early November by Kyodo News 
Service, nearly 60 PERCENT  of people reacted negatively to the cash 
handout plan. Even some ruling party members are uncomfortable with 
the idea of readopting the policy course that is unpopular among the 
public. The DPJ is trying to take advantage of such an atmosphere in 
the ruling bloc. 
 
If the ruling bloc fails to implement Prime Minister Aso's top 
priority of the cash handout plan due to some rebels in the LDP, 
there might be no future for the Aso administration. 
 
10) DPJ takes a wait and see attitude toward the LDP furor for the 
moment, but some alarmed about political realignment 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Excerpts) 
December 10, 2008 
 
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) at a meeting of its permanent 
secretaries yesterday discussed how the party should respond to the 
rapidly plunging support rates of the Aso Cabinet in the polls. In 
order to reach the goal of an early Diet dissolution and snap 
election, the view came out to seek dissolution through talks, which 
would have the ruling and opposition camps decide on Diet 
dissolution in exchange for an early passage of the second 
supplementary budget for fiscal 2008 and the fiscal 2009 national 
budget. 
 
The proposal for talks to reach a settlement on dissolving the Diet 
came from Vice President Ishii. In response, Diet Affairs Committee 
Chairman Kenji Yamaoka rebutted, "A number of choices are being 
considered, but this one will not work." Vice President Kan stated, 
"Let's calm down. The nation will be watching to see if we can reach 
a settlement." Both Yamaoka and Kan are alarmed lest the turmoil in 
the LDP spread and involve the entire political sphere. 
 
11) Monthly economic report: Government to determine that the 
economy is worsening for first time in 6 years and 10 months 
 
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Abridged slightly) 
December 10, 2008 
 
The government on December 9 decided to make a downward revision to 
its overall assessment of the economy to be incorporated in the 
December monthly report. This is the third consecutive monthly 
downward revision. The decision reflects the sharp decline in the 
domestic economy following the slowdown in the global economy 
triggered by the financial crisis. There is a strong possibility of 
the government determining that the economy is worsening for the 
 
TOKYO 00003345  008 OF 009 
 
 
first time since February 2002, taking a decline in production 
activities and the worsening employment situation into 
consideration. 
 
It will finalize its decision after determining the outcome of the 
Bank of Japan's "tankan" survey of business confidence for December 
to be released on the 15th. Related government agencies will undergo 
coordination regarding specific wording to be adopted. The wording 
that will most likely be adopted includes "the economy is beginning 
to decline" or "the economy has declined." Its judgment in the 
November monthly report was: "The economy is weakening. Downward 
pressure is rapidly increasing amid the global economy slowing 
further." 
 
12) Government bonds worth 35 trillion yen to be issued in fiscal 
2009 budget: Clear retreat from effort to recapitalize nation's 
fiscal base 
 
MAINICHI (Page 1) (Full) 
December 10, 2008 
 
The government on December 9 started looking into setting the amount 
of new government bonds to be issued in compiling the fiscal 2009 
budget at between 34 and 35 trillion yen. This is due to a 
substantial drop in estimated tax revenues, mainly corporate tax 
revenues, in fiscal 2009 due to the economic downturn. The issuance 
of new government bonds worth more than 30 trillion yen on the basis 
of the initial budget will be the first in four years. The size 
greatly exceeds the 30 trillion yen framework for the issuance of 
government bonds set when the Koizumi administration was launched, 
clarifying a shift from the policy of recapitalizing the nation's 
financial base. 
 
General-account expenditures that indicate the state's policy 
spending will reach 51 trillion yen, topping 50 trillion yen for the 
first time. This is due to the increase in the state contribution to 
the basic pension in fiscal 2009. The total amount of the general 
account, which shows the size of the budget as a whole, will likely 
exceed 85 trillion yen, the largest ever for an initial budget. In 
the meantime, tax revenues in fiscal 2008 will likely drop from the 
originally estimated 53.6 trillion yen to 47 trillion yen. 
 
As a result, the issuance of new government bonds will expand from 
the 25.3 trillion yen as estimated in the fiscal 2008 initial budget 
to around 33 trillion yen because of an increase in the issuance of 
deficit-covering government bonds. 
 
13) WTO talks having difficulty reaching compromise: Ministerial 
meeting postponed due to confrontation over import limits 
 
ASAHI (Page 12) (Excerpts) 
December 10, 2008 
 
A decision to hold a ministerial meeting under the Doha Round of the 
World Trade Organization (WTO) was put off due to major gaps in 
participating countries' positions. Opposition on the domestic front 
of major member nations is also mounting, making it difficult for 
them to make concessions. 
 
Referring to the reason for putting off the ministerial meeting, WTO 
Secretary General Lamy at a meeting of 30 major countries held at 
the headquarters said, "Even if we hold a ministerial meeting right 
 
TOKYO 00003345  009 OF 009 
 
 
now, it will not come along. I want to continue talks little 
longer." He had originally planned to hold such a meeting between 
the 13th and the 15th. He will seek concessions from the U.S., China 
and India over the next several days. The likelihood is that he will 
decide to hold it between the 17th and the 19th, if he determines 
that it is possible to do so. 
 
Participating countries have yet to fill the gap in their views. 
Lamy remains cautious, because if he holds a ministerial meeting 
prematurely and it falls through, it would deal a major blow. 
 
In Japan, the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives (JA-Zenchu) 
held a rally in Hibiya, Tokyo, bringing together 3,000 participants 
(released by the host) from all over the nation. Guest speaker Koji 
Futada, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Research 
Commission on Trade in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Products 
underscored: "The LDP will fight to protect agriculture at the risk 
of its life. Though the cabinet is unpopular, we have a general 
election close at hand." 
 
Prime Minister Aso, Economic, Trade and Industry Minister Nikai and 
Agriculture Minister Ishiba met before the cabinet meeting the same 
day and discussed measures on the WTO. If an agreement is reached at 
the WTO, tariffs of farm products, such as rice, would be brought 
down by at least 20 PERCENT . Imports of the so-called 
minimum-access rice would increase from the current 770,000 tons to 
1 million tons. In the meantime, budget funds for farm households 
are scarce due to a fall in tax revenues following the faltering 
economy. The atmosphere that an agreement was inked, the ruling 
parties would not be able to contest the next election is permeating 
in their parties. 
 
SCHIEFFER