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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 TOKYO 003341 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 12/09/08 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Editorial: How should Prime Minister Aso respond to public 
criticism? (Nikkei) 
 
(2) Some LDP members considering speeding up party presidential 
election as Aso cabinet's support rates entering 'danger zone' 
(Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(3) WTO talks: Japan may be pressed to largely reduce tariffs on 
farm products, to expand low-tariff imports quotas (Nikkei) 
 
(4) New glitch found in next-generation transport aircraft; Defense 
Ministry to delay CX mass-production (Tokyo Shimbun)  4 
(5) TOP HEADLINES 
 
(6) EDITORIALS 
 
(7) Prime Minister's schedule, December 8 (Nikkei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Editorial: How should Prime Minister Aso respond to public 
criticism? 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
December 9, 2008 
 
The support rates for the cabinet of Prime Minister Aso are 
plummeting in the opinion polls. The reason is that even though the 
economy and job situation are rapidly deteriorating, the Aso 
administration has delayed submission of a second supplementary 
budget to the Diet and seems be putting off economic stimulus 
measures until later. With the administration's centripetal force 
slowing down, the lead over compiling the national budget and 
reforming the tax system has returned to the bureaucracy and cliques 
of lawmakers representing special interests. A move to reverse the 
reform course has become noticeable. We are very concerned about the 
current muddled state of politics. 
 
In an opinion survey released by the Nikkei on Dec. 1, the support 
rate of the Aso Cabinet plummeted to 31 PERCENT . In the question 
about who would be more suitable to be the next prime minister, 
political circles were shocked by the result of Prime Minister Aso, 
who used to have a more than double advantage over Democratic Party 
of Japan President Ichiro Ozawa, now on par with Ozawa. 
 
In the opinion polls of the Yomiuri Shimbun and Asahi Shimbun that 
came out on Dec. 8, the support rate dropped even further into the 
21-22 percent range. And in the question of who would be more 
appropriate as prime minister, Prime Minister Aso and DPJ head Ozawa 
traded places. At this point, the signboard, "Aso for the economy," 
that the prime minister hung out has grown faded, and the 
expectation that he would be the party's face going into the 
election has flown away. 
 
Although the prime minister's series of controversial statements 
that raised doubts about his qualifications account in part for his 
administration's going into a stall, the main reason seems to be his 
delay in submitting to the Diet the promised second supplementary 
budget that would contain economic stimulus measures, even though he 
has been claiming to prioritize policy over politics and to give 
 
TOKYO 00003341  002 OF 007 
 
 
highest priority to the economy. Since November 15, when the prime 
minister decided to delay the supplementary budget, there have been 
continuous reductions of temporary labor and a rapidly worsening job 
situation. Countermeasures put off to later have not helped. 
 
Prime Minister Aso has stated: "The figures are extremely severe. I 
take them as an evaluation of my performance. I think it is 
criticism for insufficient responses to expectations about economic 
and job measures. I can only respond by moving ahead with proper 
measures to deal with them."  Although the Democratic Party of Japan 
has been shaking the Aso administration by pursuing an early 
dissolution of the Diet, if there results a delay in deliberating 
the budget until the regular Diet session next year, the target for 
public criticism will turn toward the DPJ. The party should be 
resolved to face such a situation. 
 
A noticeable movement in the ruling camp to topple Aso has emerged. 
In addition to there not being a successor candidate around, the 
situation is that the game of musical chairs of ruling party 
administrations has already reached its limit. With the current low 
support rates, if the prime minister is unable to decide to dissolve 
the Diet, he will fall into a state of being under siege from all 
sides. 
 
In the previous opinion poll, many respondents took the view that 
with the financial crisis expanding, the timing for dissolving the 
Lower House would be better after next spring or next September at 
the end of its tenure. In the new poll, many replied that the 
election should be as soon as possible or at the start of the 
regular Diet session early next year. 
 
How will the prime minister now deal with those who are saying, "If 
you are going to delay the economic stimulus package, then quickly 
dissolve the Diet and make a fresh political start." 
 
(2) Some LDP members considering speeding up party presidential 
election as Aso cabinet's support rates entering 'danger zone' 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) 
December 9, 2008 
 
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has been greatly shocked by Prime 
Minister Taro Aso's support ratings plummeting to 25 PERCENT . With 
an eye on the next Lower House election, the trend of LDP lawmakers 
seeking chances to leave the party and opt for political realignment 
is likely to accelerate. Since Prime Minister Aso's term of the LDP 
president will end next September, some party members are now 
talking about speeding up the date for next presidential race as the 
party did in the last days of the administration of the Prime 
Minister Yoshiro Mori in 2001. 
 
LDP executives, meeting last evening, were in a gloomy mood. When 
Senior Deputy Secretary General Mikio Hayashi was about to refer to 
the results of opinion polls by various news companies, Diet Affairs 
Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima interrupted him, saying, "Don't 
talk about support rates." 
 
However, Aso mentioned them, noting, "I bear full responsibility for 
them." He was so disappointed that he had no choice but to refer to 
them. Senior LDP officials reiterated that they would not react 
nervously to the public's support rates for the cabinet, but Aso 
admitted that the responsibility was his. 
 
TOKYO 00003341  003 OF 007 
 
 
 
If the approval rate for a cabinet drops to below 30 PERCENT , it is 
said that the cabinet has entered the danger zone, meaning it is 
approaching its final days in office. However, the Aso cabinet 
entered the danger zone only two months after its inauguration. The 
public support rates for the Abe and Fukuda administrations in the 
polls conducted immediately before the two prime ministers resigned 
were 40.5 PERCENT  and 31.5 PERCENT  (according to Kyodo News). 
 
What shocked the LDP further was the result of the question as to 
which person, Aso or Democratic Party of Japan President Ichiro 
Ozawa, would be more suitable for prime minister. The result was 
34.5 PERCENT  stated they preferred Ozawa as prime minister, while 
33.5 PERCENT  picked Aso. Support rates for the LDP and DPJ are now 
almost equal. 
 
However, Aso has now lost confidence in managing his 
administration. 
 
In a meeting held last evening in Tokyo, former Administrative 
Reform Minister Yoshimi Watanabe explained that there would be three 
cases for the formation of a new party: 1) forming small parties 
under the LDP; 2) splitting the LDP through consultations; and 3) 
forming a new party by leaving the LDP. 
 
Apart from whether Watanabe will actually bolt the LDP, there is a 
group of junior and mid-level lawmakers, including former Chief 
Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki, who are raising strong 
objections to Aso's policy line. The membership of the group is 
gradually increasing. 
 
Former Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa hinted at the possibility 
of political realignment depending on the outcomes of the next Lower 
House election, saying: "It is the matter to be decided after the 
election is over." Moves are gradually growing stronger toward 
resignation from the LDP and political realignment. 
 
The Aso administration, whose public support ratings have plummeted 
due to Aso's making of gaffes and flip-flops, resembles the final 
days of the Mori administration in the spring of 2001. 
 
With the July Upper House election moving closer, calls for the 
resignation of Prime Minister Mori became stronger in the LDP. Mori 
was then forced to announce his resignation in the form of carrying 
out the party leadership race in March earlier than due in 
September. If moves become strong for resignation from the party and 
political realignment this time around, there will be no future for 
the Aso administration. 
 
Aso's aide, who had taken the offensive, quipped yesterday: "It is 
really serious." Taku Yamasaki, former LDP vice president, clearly 
stated in a speech last night: "The Aso administration no longer has 
the power to dissolve the Lower House." Aso no longer can lead the 
LDP in the next Lower House election. 
 
(3) WTO talks: Japan may be pressed to largely reduce tariffs on 
farm products, to expand low-tariff imports quotas 
 
NIKKEI (Page 3) (Full) 
December 8, 2008 
 
Japan, on the defensive, is facing difficult negotiations on farm 
 
TOKYO 00003341  004 OF 007 
 
 
products. The focus of attention is on how many items will be 
designated as sensitive products, which are exempted from steep 
tariff cuts. Japan, which has imposed an over 200 PERCENT  tariff on 
101 items, had asserted that 8 PERCENT  of all farm products should 
be regarded as sensitive products. The chairman's proposal in the 
agricultural sector, however, sets this percentage at 4 PERCENT  in 
principle and 2 PERCENT  conditionally. Accordingly, some of the 
current high-tariff items including rice and dairy products will no 
longer be regarded as mainstay items, and Japan will be pressed to 
significantly lower the tariffs on such items. 
 
Even if certain products are designated as sensitive items, Japan 
might be pressed to expand low-tariff import quotas, like rice under 
a minimum access formula. Japan is now obligated to import about 
770,000 tons of rice under this formula annually, but if rice is 
designated as a sensitive item, Japan may be required to increase 
the volume to over 1.1 million tons. 
 
It has been said that sugar and starch, for which any low-tariff 
import quota is not set, cannot be designated as sensitive items, 
but under the new system, it will become possible for up to 1 
PERCENT  of all products to be designated as sensitive products if a 
larger low-tariff import quota than those on other items is 
introduced. 
 
As a result of steep rises in food prices across the world, 
countries began to restrict exports of farm products. Given this, 
the Japanese government has insisted on the need for new rules to be 
introduced to prevent export restrictions from being rampant. The 
chairman's proposal includes a new regulation requiring a country 
planning to restrict exports to confer with countries concerned. 
Focusing on this, a member of the Agriculture, Forestry and 
Fisheries Ministry said that the chairman's proposal merits 
appreciation. 
 
(4) New glitch found in next-generation transport aircraft; Defense 
Ministry to delay CX mass-production 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Full) 
December 9, 2008 
 
A new defect has been found in a prototype of next-generation 
transport aircraft (CX), now being developed by Kawasaki Heavy 
Industries (KHI) as the follow-on mode of the Air Self-Defense 
Force's C-1 transport plane. The Defense Ministry as a result has 
begun final coordination for postponing the acquisition of a second 
prototype, planned for fiscal 2009, until fiscal 2010 or later. The 
mass-production of the CX is likely to slip to fiscal 2010 or 
later. 
 
The maintenance of the CX is noted in the current National Defense 
Program Guidelines (NDPG) that specify the basic policy for defense 
buildup. A reexamination of the CX development program is certain to 
take center stage when the NDPG is reviewed at the end of fiscal 
¶2009. 
 
The CX is being developed at the KHI Gifu plant (Kakamigahara, Gifu 
Prefecture). 
 
The new glitch occurred in a test in late September to apply 
pressure on the prototype. A breakage was found in the fuselage rear 
part to load and unload cargos. The Defense Ministry Technical 
 
TOKYO 00003341  005 OF 007 
 
 
Research and Development Institute and KHI are racing to determine 
the cause, suspecting that it could be a serious defect concerning 
the structure of the fuselage. 
 
A series of glitches have been found regarding the CX, including the 
discovery in February last year of the rivets in the prototype that 
did not meet the strength criteria, as well as of a lack of strength 
of the fuselage supporting the main landing gear. The first flight, 
planned for September last year, has yet to take place. The 
development of the aircraft has been significantly behind schedule. 
 
The ministry was scheduled to purchase the second prototype for some 
50 billion yen from its fiscal 2009 budget. In the wake of the 
discovery of the new glitch, the ministry has concluded that it 
would be difficult to procure the second prototype in fiscal 2009. 
 
(5) TOP HEADLINES 
 
Asahi, Mainichi & Yomiuri: 
Decentralization panel recommends cutting 35,000 workers in central 
government's local branches 
 
Nikkei: 
FY2009 general account expenditures to top 50 trillion yen for first 
time 
 
Sankei: 
More than 15,000 companies may go bankrupt, highest figure in five 
years 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
Panel recommends abolishing only one central government's local 
branch 
 
Akahata: 
Government must refuse to accept WTO chairman's plan: Import 
expansion would destroy our agriculture 
 
(6) EDITORIALS 
 
Asahi: 
(1) Plummeting Aso cabinet's support rates: The public is calling 
for political change 
(2) Six-party talks: How to pass the torch to the Obama 
administration 
 
Mainichi: 
(1) Prime Minister Aso's responsibility to put on track panel's 
recommendation to cut 35,000 jobs in central government's local 
branches 
(2) North Korea talks: Codify sampling of nuclear materials 
 
Yomiuri: 
(1) Plummeting popularity bodes ill for Aso, LDP 
(2) Government must drastically cut jobs in central government's 
local branches 
 
 
Nikkei: 
(1) How will Prime Minister Aso respond to the public's criticism? 
(2) Merger of central government's local branches is not the final 
goal 
 
TOKYO 00003341  006 OF 007 
 
 
 
Sankei: 
(1) Communities as whole should protect children 
(2) Panel's recommendation on decentralization insufficient 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
(1) Prime Minister Aso can't see the big picture 
(2) Falsification of court ruling outrageous 
 
Akahata: 
(1) Can U.S build relationship of equality with Latin American 
countries? 
 
(7) Prime Minister's schedule, December 8 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
December 9, 2008 
 
10:30 
Met with Mexican Foreign Minister Espinosa. Ambassador Amano to the 
Delegation to International Organization in Vienna was present. 
 
11:11 
Science and Technology Council meeting. 
 
12:08 
Government-ruling party liaison council meeting. Finance Minister 
Nakagawa and State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Yosano 
remained. 
 
12:48 
Government-ruling camp joint meeting and related ministers' joint 
meeting to discuss tax revenues for road construction. 
 
13:07 
Met with LDP Tax System Research Commission Chairman Tsushima, 
followed by Ambassador to Tanzania Nakagawa and Ambassador to 
Slovakia Nomoto, followed by Amano. 
 
14:04 
Met with Yotaro Konaka, chairman of the New 21st Century Japan-China 
Friendship Committee and supreme advisor to Fuji Xerox, Reform and 
Liberalization Forum Executive Director Zheng Bijian, the Chinese 
side's chairman and others. Chinese Ambassador to Japan Cui Tiankai 
was present. Then met with Foreign Ministry Economic Affairs Bureau 
Director General Otabe, METI Trade Policy Bureau Director General 
Okada and Agriculture Director General for Policy Coordination 
Yoshimura. 
 
15:03 
Met with National Economy Minister al-Makki, followed by Land, 
Infrastructure and Transport Minister Kaneko. 
 
16:03 
Met with Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura. Then, experts council 
"Rising Agricultural, Mountain, and Fishing Villages." 
 
17:03 
LDP executive meeting 
 
17:45 
Met with Decentralization Reform Promotion Committee Chairman Niwa 
 
TOKYO 00003341  007 OF 007 
 
 
at the Kantei. Internal Affairs Minister Hatoyama was present. Then 
met with Yosano and Assistant Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary 
Fukuda. 
 
19:09 
Dined with his friend from collage days in the U.S. at a Japanese 
restaurant in Yurakucho. 
 
19:37 
Met with Kawamura at a bar in Imperial Hotel. 
 
20:45 
Met with his secretary 
 
23:31 
Returned to the private residence in Kamiyaya-cho. 
 
SCHIEFFER