VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTV #2918/01 3651053
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301053Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9810
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAHQA/HQ USAF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEADWD/DA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CNO WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 4788
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 1387
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 5218
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 5594
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 4820
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 3249
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 5593
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 2431
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0656
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 9377
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 6870
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 1817
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 5880
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 7871
RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH PRIORITY 0708
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 1094
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT  PRIORITY

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 002918 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
DA WASHDC FOR SASA 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA 
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR 
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD 
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
Gaza Operation 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
Leading media reported that yesterday two more Israelis were killed 
by Hamas rocket fire -Q a woman in Ashdod and a soldier in Nahal Oz, 
in the vicinity of Gaza.   Seven Israelis were wounded in the Hamas 
attacks.  Israel Radio reported that 10 Palestinians were killed in 
an IAF raid on the Hamas government compound in Gaza.  So far three 
hundred and sixty Palestinians have been killed in the IDF 
operation.  Over the past few days all media have underlined verbal 
clashes between Egypt and other Muslim nations, as well as the 
killing of an Egyptian officer by Hamas.  All media reported that 
the IDF is bracing for an IDF ground offensive.  Israel Radio quoted 
the international daily Al-Hayat citing sources in Cairo as saying 
that Ankara and Cairo have warned that Hizbullah will attack Israel 
if the latter starts a ground offensive in Gaza.  Yediot quoted an 
Israeli military source as saying yesterday that Israel will not let 
itself be dragged into a conflict with Hizbullah and that it will 
not initiate any move against Lebanon. 
 
HaQaretz quoted PM Ehud Olmert as saying yesterday at a meeting with 
FM Tzipi Livni and DM Ehud Barak: QIsrael will use an iron fist 
against Hamas but will apply a soft hand toward the [Palestinian] 
population.Q  Leading media quoted Olmert as saying that Israel will 
no longer consider a cease-fire proposal.  Israel Radio quoted 
Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gabriela Shalev as saying yesterday in 
an interview with the AP that the goal of the operation was to 
destroy Hamas and that it would continue as long as necessary until 
Hamas was dismantled.  Shalev stressed that Israel would not agree 
to a return to the previous cease-fire conditions and that it was 
demanding guarantees and commitments that Hamas would not fire 
rockets at its citizens anymore. 
 
Israel Radio reported that Egypt has developed a cease-fire formula 
with Turkish leaders that includes the opening of crossings to Gaza. 
 HaQaretz quoted Foreign Ministry sources as saying yesterday that 
the Qinternational hourglassQ would allow Israel to continue its 
operation, at most, until January 5.  HaQaretz reported that tonight 
France and Britain will present a proposal aimed at forcing a 
cease-fire on Israel and Hamas Q initially, a two-day calm. 
HaQaretz quoted a Foreign Ministry source as saying that the 
QBritish are promoting a very bad proposal for Israel. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that yesterday U.S. Senator Arlen 
Specter carried a message from PM Olmert to Syrian President Bashar 
Assad despite SyriaQs announcement it had broken off its indirect 
talks with Israel.  Major media reported yesterday that Turkey 
suspended mediation between Israel and Syria. 
 
HaQaretz and other media reported that IsraelQs three principal 
ministers agreed yesterday to allow Qatar to airlift humanitarian 
aid to Gaza in the coming days.  Several aircraft from the Persian 
Gulf nation will land in Israel, and from there food and medicine 
will be transferred by truck to Gaza.  Israel Radio reported that a 
boat carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza and an Israel Navy patrol 
collided yesterday when the former tried to dodge the latter. 
 
Leading media reported that Arab cabinet minister Raleb Majadele 
protested against the operation and boycotted the cabinet session. 
PM Olmert subsequently refused to let him go on a trip to Jordan. 
 
HaQaretz quoted prominent liberal writer Amos Oz as saying in the 
Italian daily Corriere Della Sera that Hamas is responsible for the 
latest flare-up, but that a cease-fire must be reached. 
 
 
 
--------------- 
Gaza Operation: 
--------------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
Senior columnist and longtime dove Yoel Marcus wrote in the 
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz: QFor now, Israel enjoys the 
support of the U.S. administration.  But as January 20 approaches, 
the date of Barack Obama's inauguration, Israel must be well 
Qpost-Gaza. 
 
Washington correspondent Natasha Mozgovaya wrote in Ha'aretz: QIf 
the operation continues, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict threatens 
to harm the new U.S. president even before he utters the first world 
of his swearing-in on January 20. 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote on page one of the 
popular, pluralist Maariv: Q[A possible option besides a cease-fire 
would be]: Let there be a clear balance of terror, let them know 
that that if they fire, they will be met with such a powerful blow 
that their ears will ring for a long time afterwards. 
 
Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote in the mass-circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot: QWith all the enthusiasm over the black 
smoke forming over Gaza, [Israeli politicians] tend to forget the 
operation's goal: Forcing Hamas to agree to a cease-fire on terms 
that Israel is willing to meet. 
 
Prominent liberal author David Grossman wrote on page one of 
Ha'aretz: QIsrael's leaders know well that given the situation in 
the Gaza Strip, it will be very hard to reach a total and 
unequivocal military solution.... Therefore, stop.  Hold your 
fire. 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: QIf 
Israel can deflate Hamas, it will be advancing an Arab interest as 
much as its own citizens' security. 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "Knowing When to End It" 
 
Senior columnist and longtime dove Yoel Marcus wrote in the 
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz (12/30): QFor now, Israel enjoys 
the support of the U.S. administration.  But as January 20 
approaches, the date of Barack Obama's inauguration, Israel must be 
well Qpost-Gaza.Q  Don't think that Obama will focus exclusively on 
the economic crisis as his first priority.  A president can take a 
stance on several issues at once -- and we don't know what his 
stance will be on this war and all its ramifications if we fail to 
end it at the right time.  There is no doubt that Barak is aware of 
all the possible complications.  And no one understands better than 
he that while it is impossible to make Hamas disappear and it is 
impossible to completely destroy its missile-launching capabilities, 
it is possible to destroy its motivation to use them.  Just as he 
knew when and how to begin the operation, we must hope that he will 
also know when to end it. 
II.  "First Complication before the Inauguration" 
 
Washington correspondent Natasha Mozgovaya wrote in Ha'aretz 
(12/30): QThe last thing the new [U.S.] administration needs is 
escalation in the Middle East.  The operation has only begun, but 
its first days have brought no good tidings: Together with the 
freeze of the talks with the Palestinian Authority, the 
disappearance of the Syrian track, and growing fury in the Arab 
world, this might leave ObamaQs diplomacy scorched earth.... The 
pictures of the bodies from Gaza, broadcast worldwide, have started 
gnawing into the credit [Obama] has won in the Arab world. 
Ultimately, if the operation continues, the Israeli-Palestinian 
conflict threatens to harm the new U.S. president even before he 
utters the first world of his swearing-in on January 20. 
 
III.  "Towards a Balance of Terror with Hamas" 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote on page one of the 
popular, pluralist Maariv (12/30): QIsrael did not declare that its 
goal was to topple the Hamas government in this operation, and it's 
good that it didn't.  But Qalong the way,Q there is an opportunity 
here.... How will it end?  In a new truce agreement, or without it. 
What is known as a de facto truce.  That, incidentally is what the 
decision-makers in Israel would prefer. No more agreements with 
Hamas.  Let there be a clear balance of terror, let them know that 
that if they fire, they will be met with such a powerful blow that 
their ears will ring for a long time afterwards.  When will it end? 
We don't know.  The security cabinet ministers approved a lengthy 
operation of many stages.  We are only at the end of the first 
stage. The other stages have also been approved -- unless it is 
decided to cancel them. At the moment, we are continuing as usual. 
On the other hand, some think that the proposal of French Foreign 
Minister Bernard Kouchner yesterday, in a phone conversation with 
Ehud Barak, for a lull of 48 hours in strikes for Qhumanitarian 
purposesQ could be a good ladder.  Israel would stop its activity 
for two days to allow the Palestinians to remove the injured and 
receive help.  If, in these two days, Hamas does not launch rockets, 
we can close up shop.  And have quiet for a long time.  If they do, 
we continue as usual.  In the meantime, none of the people at the 
top (Olmert and Barak) are listening to this idea. 
 
IV.  "Remember 2006" 
 
Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote in the mass-circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot (12/30): QEmbarking on the operation was 
justified, even if belated. However, past experience has taught us 
that a successful beginning does not necessarily ensure a fitting 
end: The classic example, and not the only one in our history, is 
the gap between the opening act of the Second Lebanon War and its 
closing act.... I would like to believe that Barak is talking about 
the fighting lasting a long time only in order to convince Hamas 
that Israel did not embark on this operation holding a stopwatch. 
The more Hamas is convinced that Israel has no time limitations, the 
quicker it will be to ask for a cease-fire. Declarations about the 
operation continuing are psychological warfare.  The problem is that 
politicians tend to forget who they're trying to trick, the enemy or 
their people.  What begins as a deception ruse for the enemy ends 
with self-deception.... With all the enthusiasm over the black smoke 
forming over Gaza, [Israeli politicians] tend to forget the 
operation's goal: Forcing Hamas to agree to a cease-fire on terms 
that Israel is willing to meet.  That is the goal that Olmert, Livni 
and Barak and the overwhelming majority of Israelis agree on: Not 
occupation and not toppling.  The moment that Hamas agrees to a 
cease-fire, the operation is supposed to end.  This is also a lesson 
that should have been learned from the mistakes of 2006: In war, you 
have to know how to end on time. 
 
¶V.  QStop.  Hold Your Fire 
 
Prominent liberal author David Grossman wrote on page one of 
Ha'aretz (12/30): QIsrael's leaders know well that given the 
situation in the Gaza Strip, it will be very hard to reach a total 
and unequivocal military solution.... Therefore, stop.  Hold your 
fire.  Try for once to act against the usual response, in contrast 
to the lethal logic of belligerence.  There will always be a chance 
to start firing again.  War, as Barak said about two weeks ago, will 
not run away.  International support for Israel will not be damaged, 
and will even grow, if we show calculated restraint and invite the 
international and Arab community to intervene and mediate.  It is 
true that Hamas will thus receive a respite with which to 
reorganize, but it has had long years to do so, and two more days 
will not really make a difference.  And such a calculated lull might 
change the way Hamas responds to the situation.  The response could 
even give it an honorable way out of the trap it has set for itself. 
 And one more, unavoidable thought: Had we adopted this attitude in 
July 2006, after Hizbullah abducted the soldiers, had we stopped 
then, after our first response, and declared we were holding our 
fire for a day or two to mediate and calm things down, the reality 
today might be entirely different.  This is also a lesson the 
government should learn from that war.  In fact, it might be the 
most important lesson. 
 
VI.  QArab Elites vs. Hamas 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (12/30): 
QNasrallah is half-right.   Arab elites suffer from a sort of split 
personality disorder.  Even as they are trying to pull Hamas's 
chestnuts out of the fire by pressing Washington to lean on Israel 
to back off, they know that Hamas (like Hizbullah and the Muslim 
Brotherhood) threatens not just their own regimes, but political 
development in the Arab world.  If only the Jordanian and Saudi 
monarchs, Gulf emirs and the Egyptian president would stand up to 
the Islamists.  How?  They should be incrementally fostering 
transparent government and the rule of law, and socializing their 
masses to the idea of tolerance and majority rule while respecting 
the minority.  That would promote political institution-building and 
social stability.   The Arab elites need to offer their people an 
alternative to Islamist extremism.  They could begin by redefining 
what it means to be pro-Palestinian and dissociating the Palestinian 
cause from anti-Israel rejectionism.   In this context, if Israel 
can deflate Hamas, it will be advancing an Arab interest as much as 
its own citizens' security. 
 
CUNNINGHAM