VZCZCXYZ0023
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSG #1094/01 3471849
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 121849Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4126
INFO RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 1180
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 5849
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ DEC BRASILIA 0574
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 4143
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 3669

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 001094 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CI
SUBJECT: CHILE'S PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS JOCKEY FOR POSITION 
 
REF: A) Santiago 1028 B) 07 Santiago 1993 C) Santiago 24 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Ricardo Lagos's recent announcement that he will 
not be running for president for the ruling center-left Concertacion 
coalition has shifted the scenario for presidential hopefuls.  While 
the Christian Democrats (DC) and the Radical Social Democrats (PRSD) 
have their candidates and OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza 
is the likely pick for the Socialist Party (PS), the Party for 
Democracy (PPD) has not decided how to proceed with Lagos out of the 
running.  The probable scenario is an Insulza-Frei primary in April 
while the conservative Alianza coalition's candidate will be 
Sebastian Pinera.  In the meantime, the presidential politicking is 
already overshadowing the Bachelet administration, which will face 
an uphill battle over the next year in terms of making gains in its 
legislative agenda.   End summary. 
 
Lagos:  Thanks, But No Thanks 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Former President Ricardo Lagos Escobar held a press 
conference December 4 definitively announcing that he will not be 
running in the 2009 presidential elections (now scheduled for 
November 11), ending months of speculation in the press regarding 
his potential participation.  Lagos thanked those who had courted 
him -- the Party for Democracy (PPD) openly declared their support 
for him months ago despite his own insistence at the time that he 
was not a candidate -- and criticized "some leaders" within the 
governing coalition for not taking seriously enough the Concertacion 
need for order and discipline.  Lagos stated that he is available to 
campaign for the eventual Concertacion candidate and "any other 
tasks the Concertacion assigns me." 
 
The Concertacion: We Need a Candidate Now! 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (U) Lagos' "withdrawal" from the race generated renewed 
jockeying for position among Concertacion hopefuls and speculation 
regarding who will fill the Lagos void.  Jose Miguel Insulza, OAS 
Secretary General, has been dancing around his own plans to become 
the Socialist Party (PS) candidate for months.  Other coalition 
parties have their candidates, even if they have not yet been 
officially announced.  Senator Jose Antonio Gomez of the Radical 
Social Democrat Party (PRSD) and former President and Senator 
Eduardo Frei of the Christian Democrats (DC) have both announced 
their intent to represent their parties in a Concertacion primary. 
Frei has already elaborated a platform which includes constitutional 
reforms.  (Note:  The PRSD is the smallest Concertacion party and 
won't have the votes to win a coalition primary.  End note.)  Lagos' 
decision leaves the PPD to decide if it will run its own candidate 
in a Concertacion primary or back one of the other coalition 
hopefuls. 
 
¶4.  (U) After Lagos' withdrawal, PS President Camilo Escalona and 
other PS congressmen emphatically stated to the press that Jose 
Miguel Inzulza should move back to Chile and officially declare his 
candidacy as soon as possible, if he indeed intends to run.  Deputy 
Marcelo Schilling stated to the press on December 9 that "we have no 
time left, all the deadlines have passed." 
 
¶5.  (U) The DC, still the largest Concertacion party despite deep 
losses in the October municipal elections, is expected to officially 
announce Eduardo Frei as its presidential candidate at or shortly 
after its national party congress December 13.  Meanwhile, the PPD's 
general council meeting is not scheduled until January 16, just ten 
days prior to the deadline for registering candidates in the 
Concertacion primary. 
 
Insulza Comes to Chile "To Talk" 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Upon arrival in Chile on December 11, OAS Secretary General 
Jose Miguel Insulza declared to the press that he is ready to 
participate in the Concertacion primary as long as he has the 
support of both the PS and the PPD, but that "under other 
circumstances, I'll have to see."  In a separate television 
interview on December 10 from Panama he stated that he wants to be 
President of Chile, but that "ideally, for me, the Concertacion 
should have a single candidate.  I am going to talk to the PPD, the 
PRSD, and the DC and see what possibilities for an agreement exist." 
 Concertacion parties agreed last month to hold primaries on April 
¶26.  Reacting to Insulza's statements, leaders of the PRSD and PPD 
both rejected the idea of a consensus candidate, declaring to the 
press that a Concertacion primary is "indispensable." 
¶7.  (U) When pressed about what may happen regarding his role at the 
OAS, Insulza reportedly avoided putting any timeline on his possible 
resignation as Secretary General and said he would make such 
decisions "when appropriate."  Resisting pressure to officially 
declare his candidacy, he mentioned that, in 2005, the Concertacion 
only defined its candidate in May, "so we are fine with the timing, 
we can take the time to talk and discuss and have a dialogue among 
the political actors." 
 
The Opposition: Pinera or a Primary? 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (U) National Renovation (RN) candidate Sebastian Pinera 
continues to perform well in the latest polls -- where those 
surveyed give him a landslide win against Frei or Insulza in the 
first round if the election were to be held now.  While the 
Independent Democratic Union (UDI) has been slow to officially throw 
its support behind their Alianza coalition partner, Pinera is likely 
to get an additional boost if, as press reports on December 11 
suggest, the UDI at its general meeting on December 12 officially 
back Pinera as the Alianza's single candidate. 
 
Meanwhile, On the Margins 
------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) Not to be left out of the presidential candidate scramble, 
President of the Senate Adolfo Zaldivar, who was expelled from the 
DC in December 2007 (Ref B) also made statements to the press that 
he will be running for president in 2009, most likely as the 
candidate for the Regional Independent Party (PRI), a small party 
that his supporters, all ex-DC known as "colorines" (Ref C), joined 
earlier this year.  Zaldivar will most certainly attract DC votes 
away from the Concertacion candidate, but a Frei candidacy could 
stem that tide. 
 
¶10.  (U) Another Senator, Alejandro Navarro, resigned from the PS in 
November to run for President as the candidate for "We Can Do More," 
(JP) a coalition made up of the Communist Party, the Humanist Party 
and other smaller leftist parties. 
 
Doing the Math 
-------------- 
 
¶11.  In October's municipal elections PRI, JP and independents 
together won over 18 percent of councilmember seats nationwide. 
Their candidates could complicate the electoral scenario for the 
Concertacion, leaving an opening for an Opposition win in the first 
round. (Note:  A candidate must win 50 percent plus one vote to win 
in the first round.  End note).  However, in a run-off election, a 
majority of the votes from these smaller parties and independents 
would most likely go to the Concertacion candidate. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Comment:  The current jockeying for position among 
Concertacion presidential hopefuls is considered political suicide 
by some sectors of the Concertacion, who see a unified consensus 
candidate and a disciplined coalition as the only recipe for success 
in 2009 and the installation of a fifth Concertacion government. 
However, others argue that primaries will provide more legitimacy, 
mobilize voters and demonstrate that the Concertacion can renew 
itself with fresh ideas.  With the itinerary for a Concertacion 
primary already set, it is unlikely that Insulza will manage to 
become a consensus candidate.  The probable scenario is an 
Insulza-Frei primary in April while the Alianza's candidate will be 
Sebastian Pinera.  In the meantime, the presidential politicking is 
already overshadowing the Bachelet administration, which will face 
an uphill battle over the next year in terms of making gains in its 
legislative agenda.  End comment.