VZCZCXYZ0008
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #1331/01 3381445
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 031445Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RHMCSUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0396

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001331 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR THE DIRECTOR FROM THE AMBASSADOR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS ES
SUBJECT: YOUR VISIT TO EL SALVADOR 
 
Classified By: The Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (SBU) I'm delighted that you'll be visiting El Salvador. 
Your presence here will reinforce the importance the U.S. 
places on maintaining a close, cooperative bilateral 
relationship with El Salvador.  Your visit will also offer a 
boost to our efforts to address the nation's most pressing 
problem: a public security crisis that has spiraled out of 
control.  The Salvadorans will likely press you for concrete 
signs of U.S. appreciation for their efforts to combat 
transnational crime.  We should support Salvadoran requests 
or suggestions that reinforce our shared goals in the areas 
of counter-narcotics, alien smuggling, and public security. 
At the same time, you should urge the Salvadorans to move 
forward on important public security issues such as passage 
of civil asset forfeiture and wiretap legislation, as well as 
progress on extradition issues. 
 
------------------ 
Political Overview 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) El Salvador's current political landscape is largely 
the result of the 1992 Peace Accords that ended the nation's 
twelve-year civil war.  Under the agreement, the communist 
guerillas, the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front 
(FMLN), laid down their weapons and became a legitimate 
political party.  The government (GOES) in return agreed to 
disband elements of the military and security services 
notorious for human rights violations, to allow the FMLN to 
participate in the political process, to reform the 
judiciary, and to form a new National Civilian Police force 
(PNC) drawn from the ranks of demobilized guerillas and 
former members of the armed forces.  In the ensuing years, 
the conservative, pro-U.S. National Republican Alliance Party 
(ARENA) has won every Presidential election. 
 
¶3. (C) President Elias Antonio "Tony" Saca of the governing 
ARENA party assumed office June 1, 2004 after winning a 
hard-fought presidential race with 57.7 percent of votes 
cast.  ARENA holds 34 of 84 seats in the Legislative 
Assembly, but aligns with smaller parties to form a working 
majority on important issues.  The leftist FMLN holds 32 
seats. 
 
¶4. (C) Legislative and municipal elections will be held 
January 18, 2009 and presidential elections on March 15, with 
a runoff, if needed, in April. According to local polls, FMLN 
Presidential candidate Mauricio Funes holds a slight lead 
over ARENA candidate Rodrigo Avila.  (Note:  Avila twice 
served as director of the Salvadoran National Civilian 
Police, and was Deputy Minister of Public Security and 
Justice.  He is respected and well-known in U.S. law 
enforcement circles.  End note).  Funes, a former journalist 
who hosted one of El Salvador's most popular television news 
programs, is the first FMLN Presidential candidate who is not 
a former guerilla leader.  Funes' candidacy, fueled by name 
recognition and voter discontent over rising food and fuel 
prices and the perceived lack of shared economic benefits 
under ARENA stewardship, offers the FMLN its strongest 
opportunity yet to win the Salvadoran presidency. 
 
¶5. (C) It is not clear what an FMLN victory would mean for 
the bilateral relationship.  Funes and company have indicated 
publicly that they will continue to cooperate with the U.S. 
on counter-narcotics and transnational crime, and to support 
ongoing public security endeavors such as the International 
Law Enforcement Academy (ILEA) and the Comalapa Cooperative 
Security Location (CSL).  In contrast, the FMLN has strong 
links to Hugo Chavez and rest of the Bolivarian bloc, and 
Funes has promised to immediately withdraw Salvadoran forces 
from Iraq should he win the election. 
 
----------------- 
Economic Overview 
----------------- 
 
¶6. (C) After growing by over 4 percent each of the last two 
years, the Salvadoran economy now appears to be slowing and 
may head into recession in early 2009, depending on the 
extent of contagion from the United States.  El Salvador was 
the first Central American country to implement CAFTA-DR, and 
exports, which have continued to increase through September 
2008, remain the bright spot of the economy.  Increasingly 
populist policies in the run-up to 2009 elections, including 
costly subsidies for electricity, propane gas, and 
transportation, have led to increasing fiscal problems, and 
the government has recently experienced problems in placing 
its short-term debt.  A number of international businesses 
have recently scaled back or shut down operations in El 
Salvador because of worldwide economic conditions.  The 
security situation continues to impose a considerable 
operational cost on businesses and remains a detriment to 
foreign direct investment. 
 
--------------------------- 
Civilian-Military Relations 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) The Salvadoran Armed Forces (ESAF) are capable, 
professional, and subordinate to civilian authority.  The 
military consistently receives high approval ratings in 
public opinion polls, due largely to its response to national 
emergencies, including earthquakes, hurricanes, and outbreaks 
of infectious diseases such as Dengue. Salvadoran soldiers 
also support police in counter-narcotics efforts, anti-gang 
patrols, rural patrols, customs inspections, and 
reform-school training for juvenile convicts.  El Salvador 
has had troops on the ground in Iraq in support of Operation 
Iraqi Freedom (OIF) since 2003.  The Salvadoran contingent, 
which has concentrated on humanitarian reconstruction 
efforts, has suffered five fatalities since 2003.  El 
Salvador was one of five countries invited by the GOI to stay 
on after the UN mandate expires December 31. 
 
------------------- 
Immigration and TPS 
------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Some twenty-five percent of Salvadorans live in the 
United States, many illegally.  Since the 2001 earthquakes, 
between 250,000 and 280,000 Salvadorans have benefited from 
Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and have been able to live 
and work legally in the United States.  Remittances from 
Salvadorans living abroad provide an important source of 
income for their families in El Salvador.  In 2006, 
remittances amounted to $3.3 billion, approximately 18 
percent of GDP.  Public opinion polls also show that 7 out of 
10 Salvadorans would emigrate to the United States if given 
the chance.  The U.S. debate over immigration reform is 
followed very closely here, and the GOES has consistently 
lobbied for making TPS a permanent benefit for Salvadoran 
nationals.  The GOES has also on various occasions approached 
the U.S. about ending the practice of deporting Salvadoran 
nationals.  Salvadoran officials frequently infer that the 
country,s spiraling violent crime rates are largely the 
result of the U.S. deporting illegal alien gang members back 
to El Salvador. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Counter-narcotics and Counter-terrorism 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) The Salvadoran government is a valuable partner in the 
war on drugs. El Salvador is a transit country for narcotics, 
mainly cocaine and heroin.  El Salvador is host to Central 
America's only Cooperative Security Location (CSL), as well 
as to Latin America's International Law Enforcement Academy 
(ILEA), which provides law enforcement training to personnel 
from El Salvador and the region.  The CSL agreement expires 
August 23, 2010.  We have formally requested a five-year 
extension from the GOES, but have as yet received no answer. 
 
¶10. (C) U.S.-funded training and equipment have contributed 
significantly to improvements in the National Civilian Police 
(PNC) Counter-narcotics Division.  El Salvador's geographic 
position makes it vulnerable to those trafficking drugs, drug 
proceeds (in the form of bulk currency shipments), people, 
and guns to or from the United States.  JIATF-South, with its 
ability to provide Salvadoran authorities with real-time 
intelligence, is a great asset; however, the ESAF need 
additional resources to help us take full advantage of 
JIATF's capabilities. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
El Salvador and Regional Efforts on Transnational Crime 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶11. (C) El Salvador has assumed an important leadership role 
in regional efforts to improve public security in Central 
America.  As host to the Transnational Anti-gang Unit (TAG), 
the International Law Enforcement Academy (ILEA), and the 
Comalapa Cooperative Security Location (CSL), the GOES is at 
the forefront of efforts to curtail transnational street gang 
activity, to disrupt maritime narcotics trafficking routes, 
and to strengthen the rule of law throughout the hemisphere. 
The government of El Salvador enthusiastically supports the 
Merida Initiative, and continues to aggressively push the 
Central American Integration System (SICA in Spanish) to 
implement a comprehensive regional plan for improving public 
security. 
 
¶12. (C) Despite the aforementioned successes, there is still 
much that can be improved upon.  Passage of wire tap 
legislation would give Salvadoran law enforcement a vital 
tool against street gangs, drug traffickers, and money 
launderers.  Enactment of a civil asset forfeiture statue 
would help to offset the significant budget shortfalls faced 
by the National Civilian Police and the judicial sector. 
Moving forward on extradition would help to ensure that 
neither Salvadoran nor American criminals find safe haven and 
avoid punishment for crimes they commit.  To the extent 
possible, I urge you to use your interactions with Salvadoran 
officials to both congratulate them on their many successes, 
and to encourage them to establish an even stronger 
foundation for U.S.-Salvadoran law enforcement cooperation. 
BLAU