VZCZCXRO1922
PP RUEHFL RUEHNP
DE RUEHRO #1489/01 3441203
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091203Z DEC 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1283
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1527
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2473
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 4702
RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES 3490
RUEHMIL/AMCONSUL MILAN 9699
RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE 3327

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001489 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON IT
SUBJECT: ITALY PROPOSES (OVERLY?) MODEST ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE 
 
¶1. (U)   Summary:  The economic stimulus package the GOI announced 
on Nov 26 is small compared to its EU neighbors', partly because it 
believes Italy's financial sector doesn't need much help, but 
primarily because the government's already high indebtedness 
precludes a more ambitious program.  Critics maintain the measures 
are too timid to achieve effective economic stimulus or to provide 
meaningful relief to families and businesses.  End Summary. 
 
The Package 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) On November 26 the government of Italy (GOI) announced an 
economic stimulus package in the context of G20 and EU-wide 
coordinated efforts to address the global economic downturn.  The 
plan consists of a mix of measures aimed at households, businesses 
and the financial sector, amounting to a modest one percent of GDP, 
approximately euros 16 billion.  In comparison, France, UK and 
Germany have announced stimulus plans in the 4-5 percent of GDP 
range.  The largest portion of the package is a government 
commitment to guarantee euros 10-12 billion of new bank debt. 
Within a week of announcing the plan, however, the GOI's economic 
team postponed implementation of the bank-support portion, noting 
it's not needed for now.   The provisions of the package go into 
force immediately, but the "decree law", akin to an executive order, 
must be converted into law in the legislature within 60 days. 
Amendments to the legislation are likely. 
 
 
Help for Households 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Assistance to households consists primarily of direct cash 
or quasi-cash payments to the lowest income families (about 8 
million people with incomes below euros 20,000 a year) and relief 
for variable rate mortgage holders whose mortgage rate rises above 
4%.  Post banking sector contacts believe the latter's cost to the 
government will be limited, because interest rates are already low 
(average mortgage rate is 5.1%) and falling, and because only 30% of 
Italian households have mortgages in the first place.  Approximately 
130,000 families are potentially eligible for this relief.  The 
government will also implement a measure included in the 2008 budget 
approved in August, to provide euros  40 a month, through so-called 
"social" debit cards to 1.3 million people with incomes lower than 
euros  8,000  a year.  Finally, highway toll increases will be 
suspended for the first half of 2009. 
 
Assistance to Business 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) For businesses, government assistance is equally modest.  It 
consists primarily of deferring Value Added Tax (VAT) payments due 
the government to the moment a business books a final sale, as 
opposed to when it makes an intermediate procurement.  The 
government will also lower slightly the 5% regional business tax. 
 
Bank Support Package 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) The financial sector assistance portion of the package - now 
deferred indefinitely - provides for the government to underwrite 
and guarantee up to euros 12 billion in new bank bonds.   The aim is 
to allow banks access to new funding from investors in order to 
maintain the flow of bank credit to the real economy.   The 
government also proposes to abolish the 15% limit in bank capital 
that non-bank companies may own. 
 
Lukewarm Reaction 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (U) Opposition politicians and some analysts criticized the 
stimulus as too modest, for differing reasons. The largest trade 
union federation intends to proceed with a scheduled nation-wide 
strike December 12 to protest what it charges are "beggars' alms" in 
the household assistance component of the package.  Serious 
economists, including in the Central Bank, note that  the euros 6 
billion core of the stimulus package (excluding the portion for 
banks) is almost fully offset by spending cuts, tax increases and 
the elimination of other tax benefits, yielding a near zero impact 
on GDP.  A leading think tank laments that Italy is fast approaching 
a condition of permanent economic malaise. It argues that there is 
no point in the government trying to hold the line on its debt/GDP 
ratio if it means allowing GDP to fall severely in the short term 
and remain sluggish in the medium and long terms. 
 
ROME 00001489  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
 
¶7.  (U) Comment:  The scope and limited size of the package could be 
explained on two counts: first, that the GOI is convinced Italy's 
financial sector remains relatively unscathed by the financial 
meltdown elsewhere; and second, that the government has limited room 
to maneuver on the fiscal policy front given its already high 
indebtedness.  [Note: Official debt exceeds 104% of GDP and annual 
interest payments equal 11% of government revenue. End-Note] A 
further possibility is that the GOI may be looking to keep other 
policy options open in the event a second stimulus package is needed 
later next year.  [The OECD forecasts that Italy's recession will be 
deeper and longer than most of its peers: Italy's GDP will decrease 
by 0.5% this year and by 1% next year. End-Note] 
 
SPOGLI