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FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8835
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001536 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2018 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: LIBERALS BEGIN THE HEALING PROCESS 
 
REF: A. OTTAWA 1529 
     ¶B. OTTAWA 1495 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary.  Michael Ignatieff is the only remaining 
candidate to replace Stephane Dion as the interim leader of 
the Official Opposition Liberal Party.  A new party mechanism 
should confirm him in this role o/a December 17.  Liberals 
hope that the members will now be able to concentrate on the 
future, and will look first for signs that the Conservative 
budget presentation on January 27 includes conciliatory 
elements, such as a meaningful stimulus package.  If not, 
they may re-visit the coalition option with the New 
Democratic Party.  Over the longer term, however, Ignatieff's 
personality may prove to be a liability in creating or 
maintaining Liberal cohesion.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U)  Liberal MP Bob Rae announced on December 9 that he 
would no longer be a candidate as either the interim or the 
next leader (which a May 2009 Liberal national convention 
will crown) of the Official Opposition Liberal Party, 
replacing Stephane Dion, who had signaled his intention to 
resign on December 8 (ref a).  (The other expected candidate, 
Dominic LeBlanc, announced on December 8 that he was also 
dropping out of the race.)   Rae emphasized that Michael 
Ignatieff would have his ""full and unqualified support,"" and 
predicted that Ignatieff ""will make a great Prime Minister."" 
He insisted, however, that he would continue to lobby for a 
shift to a ""one-member-one-vote"" system of selecting the 
national party leader in the future. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Rae's 180-degree reversal of position came only 
after the Liberal National Executive announced that, while it 
did not favor Rae's proposed one-person-one-vote selection 
process for the party leader, it would create a special 
800-person grouping to ratify the choice of an interim leader 
o/a December 17.  Members will include the 308 riding 
presidents as well as representatives of aboriginal, women's 
and student groups.  (Details about the remaining 
representatives remain vague.)  The Liberal parliamentary 
caucus is still expected to meet on December 10 to make clear 
its own preference for Ignatieff, but the Executive's 
decision made clear that many in the party recognize that the 
time had come for a more inclusive body to rally behind the 
new interim leader, with the expectation that he will also 
receive the blessing of the national convention on May 2. 
 
¶4.  (C)  In a meeting with PolMinCouns on December 9, Liberal 
Whip in the House of Commons Rodger Cuzner expressed the hope 
that Rae's decision would now allow the Liberals to begin to 
heal the self-inflicted party wounds that have existed since 
the 2006 national leadership race, and further intensified in 
recent months due to Dion's perceived ineptness, widespread 
disgruntlement over the ""Green Shift"" carbon tax proposal, 
dire showing in the October 14 election, controversial 
coalition with the NDP, and the now-infamously bad Dion video 
in response to Prime Minister Stephen Harper's December 3 
address to the nation.  He indicated that Rae had ""done the 
right thing"" for the party, and he predicted that the 
December 10 Liberal caucus would set the right tone of unity 
just before the MPs head home to their ridings for the 
holidays.  Separately, Liberal National President Doug 
Ferguson admitted that about 900,000 Liberal members had 
simply abstained from the October 14 election, and confirmed 
that the party's chief task in the months to come would be to 
win back their support, participation, and enthusiasm -- as 
well as financial contributions. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Curzon emphasized that Liberal MPs understand from 
their constituents that the economy is the top issue, and 
that there is little inclination for ""petty partisanship"" 
now.  If the Conservatives put forward a budget on January 27 
that appears at all conciliatory to opposition demands -- 
notably, for a healthy stimulus package and specific aid for 
the auto and forestry sectors -- the Liberal inclination will 
be to support it.  If, in contrast, the Conservatives again 
include confrontational proposals -- as the fall Economic and 
Fiscal Statement's call to end federal funding for political 
parties (ref b) -- ""all gloves are off,"" according to Curzon. 
 In such a scenario, Curzon suggested that Ignatieff would 
even be willing to consider reviving the Liberal/NDP 
coalition, about which he has so far appeared mostly 
agnostic, at best. 
 
¶6.  (C)  Comment:  Selection of a new interim leader will 
help put the unsuccessful Dion era behind the Liberals and 
position them for new political competition in 2009.  The 
choice of Ignatieff is not without risk, however.  He has 
long lived with open criticism about his patrician and 
sometimes condescending manner -- many call him ""the Count"" 
behind his back, in part in reference to his aristocratic 
Russian lineage and in part to his personal style -- and his 
 
OTTAWA 00001536  002 OF 002 
 
 
bitter rivalry since 2006 with college roommate and one-time 
friend Bob Rae is the already the stuff of Liberal legend. 
He has only now begun to live down the ""johnny-come-lately"" 
image that was inevitable when he entered Canadian politics 
after decades in the U.S., as well as unease that not only 
had he initially supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq but 
subsequently jettisoned his own view for political 
convenience.  Ignatieff will face a factionalized, 
demoralized, and poor party without much of a clear-cut 
alternate vision to the Conservatives' policy and 
organizational juggernaut.  Ignatieff -- and Liberals around 
the country -- clearly have much heavy lifting in the weeks 
and months ahead. 
 
Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada 
 
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