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"C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001529 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: DUMPING DION (PART II) 
 
REF: A. OTTAWA 1348 
     ¶B. OTTAWA 1518 
     ¶C. OTTAWA 1516 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary.  Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion on 
December 8 indicated his intention to resign as leader of the 
Official Opposition.  Michael Ignatieff remains the front 
runner to replace him, but it appears that the selection 
process is still not a slam dunk.  Technically, the 77-member 
Liberal caucus of MPs does not have the authority to name an 
interim leader; only a separate 32-member National Executive 
can.  Rival Bob Rae is still fighting to have the National 
Executive, with possible support from the large patches of 
Canada that do not have Liberal MPs, insist on a 
one-member-one-vote selection process instead.  All this 
confusion is probably welcome news for the ruling 
Conservative Party.  One way or another, Canada's unexpected 
and unusual political drama will continue well into 2009. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C)  The beating of wardrums clamoring for the immediate 
resignation of Official Opposition Liberal Party leader 
Stephane Dion picked up new rhythm with a December 6 op ed 
piece by Liberal former Deputy Prime Minister John Manley in 
""The Globe and Mail.""  Dion was already a lame duck leader 
(ref a), having immediately after the disastrous Liberal 
showing in the October 14 federal election announced his 
intention formally to resign following an expected May 2, 
2009 vote at the national Liberal convention.  His inept 
performance during the political dramas during the week of 
December 1 (refs b and c) was apparently the final straw for 
Liberal loyalists. 
 
¶3.  (U)  Dion made public his resignation letter on December 
8, insisting that his ""earlier departure does not change the 
facts of the situation that the Prime Minister has created in 
the last two weeks.""  The letter further made explicit that 
his resignation, however, would come into effect ""as soon as 
my successor is chosen.""  He reiterated support for the 
Liberal/New Democratic Party alliance as a ""solid basis to 
give Canada a government that reflects both the aspirations 
of the majority of Canadians and the support of the majority 
of Members of Parliament."" 
 
¶4.  (C)  Unfortunately for the Liberals, the mechanics of 
choosing a new leader are more complex than many may have 
realized.  According to the Liberal Party constitution, a 
permanent leader can only emerge from a vote at a national 
convention of elected delegates.  Currently, the selection of 
delegates will be March 6-8, 2009, with the convention in 
Vancouver April 29-May 3.  The party constitution nonetheless 
stipulates that, should a leader resign or announce the 
intention to resign, only the National Executive -- a 32 
member board of whom the party leader and another caucus 
representative are the only MP representatives, while others 
are mostly senior officials of the national party and heads 
of the provincial Liberal parties -- can choose an interim 
leader.  The National Executive is obliged to meet within 27 
days of the resignation of the leader, and only to hold 
""consultations"" with members of the caucus. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Further complicating the situation is that 
leadership candidate Bob Rae has not bowed to the perceived 
momentum toward choosing Michael Ignatieff as interim party 
leader (whose position would logically then receive formal 
endorsement at the May 2 party convention vote).  (By 
contrast, would-be rival Dominic LeBlanc stepped aside on 
December 8 in favor of Ignatieff, ""the consensus choice."") 
Ignatieff supporters have claimed that they have at least 55 
members of the 77 person Liberal caucus supporting him. 
However, in an open letter/email message to Liberal members 
on December 7, Rae underscored that the caucus was 
unrepresentative of the party, with only ""literally two 
Liberals between North Bay, Ontario and Vancouver, BC"" and 
""without representative from most of francophone Quebec 
outside of Montreal.""  He called instead for use of a 
""one-member-one-vote democratic leadership selection"" -- 
which other Canadian parties use but which the 2006 Liberal 
national party convention had explicitly rejected -- and 
claimed that the National Executive was ""working on"" such a 
plan to put in place immediately.  He urged members to weigh 
in with the National Executive and ""put a stop to this hasty, 
ill-considered idea"" of permitting a ""closed caucus vote"" to 
decide on an interim leader. 
 
¶6. (C)  Comment:  The ruling party Conservatives may well be 
cackling with glee as they watch yet another unnecessary 
mis-step by Dion as well as the resurgent leadership 
rivalries -- and long-standing enmities -- within the Liberal 
Party.  Ignatieff's selection would likely be the death knell 
of the Liberal/NDP coalition, whereas Rae's selection would 
 
OTTAWA 00001529  002 OF 002 
 
 
keep this option alive -- and this is the additional factor 
that Liberal MPs and nationwide members are also probably 
weighing.  One way or another, Canada's unexpected and 
unusual political drama will continue well into 2009. 
 
Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada 
 
BREESE