VZCZCXRO9601
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHHM RUEHLH RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHNEH RUEHPB
RUEHPOD RUEHPW RUEHTM
DE RUEHNE #3184/01 3531258
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181258Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4767
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 003184 
 
STATE FOR OES/PCI, OES/IHB, AND SCA/INS 
STATE FOR STAS, AIAG 
STATE PASS TO NSF FOR INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS 
HHS PASS TO NIH 
STATE PASS TO USAID 
PASS TO HHS/OGHA (STEIGER/ABDOO/VALDEZ), CDC (BLOUNT/FARRELL), 
NIH/FIC (GLASS/MAMPILLY/HANDLEY), FDA (LUMPKIN/WELSCH, GENEVA FOR 
HOFMAN) 
PASS TO MAS/DAS/JESTRADA 
PASS TO MAC/DAS/HVINEYARD 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO SENV AMED CASC KSCA ECON ETRD BEXP EINV TSPL
SUBJECT: AVIAN INFLUENZA OUTBREAK IN ASSAM AND WEST BENGAL 
 
REF A: KOLKATA 328 
REF B: KOLKATA 11 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY:  The Government of India has confirmed outbreaks of 
H5N1 Avian Influenza in the states of Assam and West Bengal.  State 
and Central Government response has been quick and effective with 
culling operations underway in all locations.  There are currently 
no confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans and human surveillance has 
begun in the affected areas.  The economic impact of the recent 
outbreaks has already been felt and is expected to be both 
long-lasting and severe.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  This cable incorporates reporting from ConGen Kolkata, ConGen 
Chennai, and FAS, USAID, HHS, and State at Embassy New Delhi. 
 
----------------- 
OUTBREAK IN ASSAM 
----------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The first outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza 
(HPAI) in Assam was reported on November 27, 2008 (Ref A).  As of 
December 16, the Department of Animal Health, Dairy and Fisheries 
(DADF), a division of the GOI Ministry of Agriculture (MoAG), 
officially confirmed outbreaks of HPAI in Kamrup (Rural), Kamrup 
(Metro), Bongaigaon, Nalbari, Barpeta and Chirang districts which 
are contiguous to one another and border the Brahmaptura river. 
DADF also confirmed AI in the district of Dibrughar, which is 
located 600 kilometers away in the northeastern corner of the state. 
 Dibrughar also borders the Brahmaputra river.  The non-contiguous 
locations of the confirmed outbreak sites support a theory that 
migratory wildfowl may be the carrier for the virus in Assam.  Most 
of the outbreaks have been reported in backyard poultry except for 
one outbreak in a government managed "Central Chick Rearing Farm" in 
Kamrup district.  The poultry population in Assam is around 21.7 
million, making it the sixth largest state in terms of poultry 
population. 
 
¶4.  (U) The Assam state government has mobilized resources at the 
state and district level to contain the outbreak.  The state Animal 
Husbandry and Veterinary Department, specifically the Secretary, is 
coordinating the state-level response and equipping, manning and 
directing the 400-500 Rapid Reaction Teams that are working in the 
affected districts.  According to official GOI statistics, 886 
nimal Health workers, all on chemoprophylaxis, have been deployed 
in the effort.  Local district collectors are facilitating the 
administrative logistics of the culling, combing, mopping, and 
sanitizing operations.  As of December 15, 337,582 birds have been 
culled in Assam. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Poloff met with a district collector on December 12 who 
noted the state government is culling birds (chickens, ducks, geese) 
within three kilometers of an outbreak and restricting movement of 
birds (effectively a quarantine) within 10 kilometers.  Cash 
compensation is paid on the spot to individuals whose birds are 
culled, with commercial operations receiving payment the following 
day.  The district collector also stated several districts had begun 
trial night-time combing operations in order to catch offenders, 
particularly backyard poultry cultivators, who fail to present their 
birds for culling.  No compensation is paid to producers whose birds 
are restricted within the three to ten kilometer quarantine zone. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Poloff also visited one of the outdoor poultry markets in 
the state capitol of Guwahati, which is located in the Kamrup 
(Urban) district.  According to one of the merchants, a ban on 
poultry sales has been in effect since November 25 and on eggs since 
December 9.  He stated the government would re-assess the ban on 
December 20.  The merchant said he understood the seriousness of the 
issue as well as the need for government action to contain the 
outbreak, but questioned the lack of any government compensation for 
lost revenue for the merchants who are dependent on sales for their 
 
NEW DELHI 00003184  002 OF 004 
 
 
livelihoods.  He noted that chicken was unavailable on the black 
market and Poloff observed that while chicken had been available on 
December 11 at one of the three star hotels in Guwahati, on December 
12 it was off the menu.  In addition Kingfisher airline flights to 
and from Guwahati have removed chicken from their in-flight menus. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) On December 12, Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi called a 
meeting of ministers and state and district officials to assess the 
state government's response to the AI outbreak.  According to a 
participant, CM Gogoi acknowledged the seriousness of the AI 
outbreak and expressed confidence in his government's ability to 
address the situation.  A concrete result of the meeting was the 
state government's decision to double the compensation paid for 
culled chickens from USD 0.80 (Rs 40) to USD 1.60 (Rs 80) in order 
to approximate market prices. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Politicians from all political parties, both government 
and opposition, told Poloff that they understood the seriousness of 
the outbreak and the importance of "nipping it in the bud".  In a 
private conversation on December 12 the leader of the opposition in 
the Assam state assembly told Poloff he had no intention of 
politicizing the government's response to Avian Influenza. 
 
----------------------- 
OUTBREAK IN WEST BENGAL 
----------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) On December 16 the DADF confirmed the outbreak of HPAI in 
West Bengal's Budhia-Kola village located in the northern district 
of Malda.  The district is located 350 kilometers north of Kolkata 
and borders the Indian states of Jharkand and Bihar in addition to 
Bangladesh.  The Government of West Bengal (GoWB) began culling 
operations on December 16.  As of December 18, there are no figures 
as to how many birds have already been culled but GoWB estimates 
indicate approximately 20,000 poultry will be culled by December 
¶20. 
 
--------------------------- 
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSE 
--------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (U) In addition to Assam and West Bengal, the MoAG has issued 
orders to the neighboring states of Tripura and Meghalaya to follow 
strategic AI control measures according to the National Action Plan 
for Preparedness, Control and Containment of AI which is available 
at the following link: http://dahd.nic.in/flu/BIRD%20FLU.pdf.  As of 
December 18, there have been no reports of an outbreak in Tripura. 
However, Health Attach learned that HPAI has been found in 
Meghalaya although the extent of the outbreak is unknown.  A portion 
of the three kilometer culling zone surrounding the outbreak at 
Assam's Central Chick Rearing Farm falls within the territorial 
confines of Meghalaya which has been instructed to initiate culling 
and surveillance operations accordingly.  Poloff confirms that 
Government of Meghalaya officials are in contact and exchanging 
information with their Assam counterparts.  The MoAG has not 
identified a virus vector or the likely source of infection though 
officials have speculated migratory wildfowl may be responsible for 
the Assam and West Bengal outbreaks. 
 
¶11.  (U) In a new development, the GOI has split the AI outbreak 
sample investigation workload between the Ministry of Agriculture 
and the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW).  In the past, 
all suspected H5N1 samples were sent to MoAG's High Security Animal 
Disease Laboratory (HSADL) in Bhopal.  The GOI has now decided the 
samples should be shared between HSADL and MoHFW's Institute of 
Virology in Pune. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
NO CONFIRMED CASES OF HUMAN H5N1 INFECTION 
------------------------------------------ 
 
NEW DELHI 00003184  003 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶12.  (U) According to the MoHFW's latest official report dated 
December 15, 2008, no cases of AI have been detected in humans.  A 
senior official at MoHFW informed Health Attach that human 
surveillance in the AI affected states has commenced and includes 
active house to house surveillance by approximately 498 health 
workers.  As of December 17, 125,241 people living within three 
kilometers of each outbreak epicenter have been examined.  An 
additional 122,616 people living within a three to ten kilometer 
radius of each epicenter have also been examined.  The human 
surveillance has revealed 104 cases of Upper Respiratory Infection 
with fever though no confirmed HPAI and none of the 104 cases have a 
history of handling dead or sick birds.  The MoHFW has deployed 
approximately 20,000 capsules of Tamiflu, 9000 surgical masks, 900 
sets of personal protective equipment, 300 N-95 masks and five 
ventilators with an additional 10,000 Tamiflu capsules and three 
ventilators to follow.  In addition, UNICEF has distributed local 
language print and media material, jointly developed with MoHFW, 
regarding AI and human and animal health for public distribution. 
 
------------------------------ 
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AI IN INDIA 
------------------------------ 
 
¶13.  (SBU) As the AI outbreaks are still continuing in Assam and 
West Bengal, it is too early to fully assess the economic damage. 
Initial data from the Poultry Federation of India indicates there 
has been a drop of approximately 30 percent in the per kg price of 
broilers (live weight) across the country due to the outbreaks in 
Assam.  However, the latest outbreaks come on the heels of a 
November 4 GOI declaration to the International Animal Health 
Organization that India is "AI free" referring to the previous 
multiple 2008 outbreaks, the first of which was confirmed on January 
15, 2008 (Ref B).  According to the DADF's official order, a total 
of 42 outbreaks were reported up to May 16, 2008, with the last 
occurring in West Bengal's Darjeeling district. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) The previous outbreaks led several Gulf countries as well 
as Bhutan and Pakistan to impose a prohibition on the import of 
poultry and poultry products from India.  As a result, trade losses 
alone were more than $25 million.  According to industry sources, 
the previous outbreaks caused more than $132 million in 
industry-wide losses.  Bankruptcy and consolidation has occurred in 
some of the smaller poultry operations in southern India and the 
larger commercial poultry integrators in Tamil Nadu are facing 
severe financial losses as a result of the trade bans.  The director 
of a large poultry farm in Tamil Nadu told Econoff the import bans, 
particularly on eggs, have already cost Tamil Nadu poultry farms 
approximately USD 500,000.  The key markets for these products are 
the Gulf countries.  In addition, the National Egg Coordination 
Committee, the cartel that sets egg prices, has lowered egg prices 
from USD 0.041 (INR 2.05) to USD 0.038 (INR 1.9) as the market gets 
flooded with eggs that are now non-exportable. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Considering the relative isolation of Assam and West 
Bengal from other poultry production areas in India, coupled with 
the fact that North/Central Indian poultry production is mainly for 
the domestic market, it would appear India would want to declare 
regionalization or compartmentalization of AI outbreaks in order to 
protect it's AI free South India poultry producers.  However, senior 
MoAg officials have indicated that all such industry requests for 
compartmentalization have been turned down. 
 
¶16.  (U) The poultry industry claims that there is no major impact 
on domestic poultry consumption as the majority of consumers are now 
well aware that properly handled and cooked poultry meat is safe for 
consumption.  That said, the Poultry Federation of India is working 
with the Indian Medical Association to launch an AI awareness 
campaign among consumers. 
 
 
NEW DELHI 00003184  004 OF 004 
 
 
---------------------------------------- 
NO REQUESTS FOR INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶17.  (SBU) The GOI has not requested any direct assistance from the 
USG and in conversations with Emboffs, has indicated they anticipate 
being able to handle the current outbreaks without difficulty. 
WHO-India however has requested USAID to assist them in obtaining AI 
outbreak information from Bangladesh. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶18.  (SBU) There are no official or unofficial reports regarding a 
causal link between the Assam and West Bengal AI outbreaks, although 
the timing and the fact the H5N1 virus is of an identical strain 
leads to the possibility.  The Assam and West Bengal state 
governments have moved quickly, at all levels, to contain the 
outbreaks.  Government, business, and civil society are supporting 
pro-active culling measures.  In addition, the Government of Assam's 
decision to increase compensation for culled birds should increase 
backyard poultry's voluntary participation in culling activities. 
It remains to be seen whether West Bengal will follow suit. 
However, a potential weakness in the government response is the lack 
of a compensation mechanism for "quarantined farms" or for poultry 
marketplace sellers.  Without their inclusion in some type of 
compensation scheme, there exists an economic incentive to engage in 
illegal poultry sales thereby threatening the ability to contain the 
outbreak.  In addition, although human case surveillance is active 
around the outbreak epicenters, human influenza surveillance in 
Assam, West Bengal, and India in general is weak. 
 
 
MULFORD