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O 081332Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4598
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
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RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2938
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003094 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS COMES TO POWER IN RAJASTHAN 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 3066 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  After a five-year gap, the Congress 
Party returned to power in Rajasthan as poll results were 
announced on December 8.  Congress soundly defeated the 
ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), winning 98 out of 200 
seats in the state assembly.  Despite spiraling commodity 
prices and the escalating terrorist threat, caste 
affiliations and local issues prevailed as the top 
determining factors in the hotly contested race.  The Mumbai 
attacks appear to have had minimal effect on voter behavior 
in Rajasthan, sending the BJP leadership back to the drawing 
board ahead of national elections due by May 2009.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
Decisive Congress Win 
--- 
 
¶2.  (U)  On December 8, the Congress Party soundly defeated 
the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Chief Minister 
Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan state assembly elections.  Over 
36 million eligible voters cast their votes for the 200-seat 
Rajasthan state assembly on December 4, and the results were 
announced on December 8 along with five other states that had 
gone to polls recently (septel).  Congress won in 98 
constituencies, signaling the party's return to power in the 
state after a five-year gap.  The BJP won 75 seats, while 
other regional/local parties moved ahead in 27 other 
constituencies. 
 
Local Issues Dominate 
--- 
 
¶3.  (U)  While development, inflation and terrorism continue 
to rank as top voter concerns, Rajasthan elections were 
decided on candidates' caste affiliations and local issues. 
The Congress Party attracted votes from Jat, Gujjar and Meena 
communities, which helped party efforts to topple the 
incumbent BJP.  The Jat votes, which sided with BJP in 2003, 
split down the middle this time around.  Some sections of the 
Jats had become disillusioned by sharp land and water 
disputes with the Raje government.  A large portion of 
Gujjars have flocked to Congress, spurred by the BJP's 
perceived inability to deliver on promises for additional 
education and job preferences (Ref. A).  The sizable Meena 
community, which had enjoyed favored treatment by Raje, has 
also swung to Congress in response to additional reservations 
being granted to the rival Gujjar community by Raje. 
 
Litmus Test for Raje 
--- 
 
¶4.  (U)  The Congress Party campaigned on Raje's poor 
development record and perceived rampant corruption in her 
administration.  Congress candidates pointed to the state 
land development initiative as a prime example of government 
negligence, in which Raje's administration has lined its 
pockets by confiscating prime land for development purposes 
from farmers or buying at below-market prices.  While 
anti-incumbency may have played a role in the BJP's defeat, 
Raje's failure to deliver basic needs, particularly water and 
energy, figured prominently in her party's defeat.  As noted 
by a NDTV correspondent, incumbent parties in three election 
states of Delhi, Madya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh were 
re-elected, which may indicate that "anti-incumbency" may be 
overcome by good governance and delivery of services from 
elected officials. 
 
Mumbai Effect? 
--- 
 
¶5.  (U)  Following the terrorist attacks in Mumbai, political 
observers expected some form of public backlash against the 
Congress Party in Rajasthan and other election states. 
However, the outcome in Rajasthan underlies the strength of 
caste-based and local issues.  Even before the Mumbai 
attacks, the BJP had campaigned on the "soft-on-terror" 
charge against the Congress, in hopes that it would translate 
to votes in state and, eventually, national polls. 
 
It's the Candidates, Not the Message 
--- 
 
NEW DELHI 00003094  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U)  In what appears to be an effort to deflect criticism 
of their failed "soft-on-terror" campaign, BJP officials have 
framed their party's loss in the state as a failure of 
individual candidates, particularly Raje, to lead the state 
and attract votes.  "Even before the Mumbai attack, terrorism 
was an issue for us just as the issue of price rise," said 
party spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad.  According to 
Congress Party officials, the party's victory in Rajasthan is 
a referendum on BJP attempts to "politicize" terrorism ahead 
of national elections.  Congress called for a unified front 
to combat aggressive militancy in the country. 
 
The BSP Factor 
--- 
 
¶7.  (U)  Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won at least 
seven seats backed by a coalition of upper castes and Dalits. 
 Political observers had expected BSP to gain five seats, but 
the party appears to have squeezed enough votes from Congress 
candidates thereby adding a new dimension to the state and 
national political landscape.  The BSP has gained support 
throughout northern India in the last five years and, based 
on its showing in Rajasthan, is expected to make an impact in 
upcoming national elections in 2009. 
 
BJP:  Back to the Drawing Board 
--- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  The BJP has pounded on the themes of 
inflation and terrorism for months before the attacks in 
Mumbai.  However, the outcome of elections has proved that 
these issues have not resonated with the local population in 
Rajasthan, a primarily rural state with few urban centers. 
Local issues, such as the delivery of water and energy, were 
priority issues for the Rajasthani voter.  Ahead of national 
elections next year, the BJP will be hard pressed to 
construct an effective campaign that speaks to the common 
man.  END COMMENT. 
MULFORD