VZCZCXRO8546
OO RUEHAST RUEHBC RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHGI RUEHJS RUEHKUK
RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW RUEHROV
DE RUEHNE #3066/01 3391500
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041500Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4535
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNISL/ISLAMIC COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7207
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 5613
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2929
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1441
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5940
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7288
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 7998
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003066 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL SOCI PINR IN
SUBJECT: RAJASTHAN STATE ELECTIONS: IT'S ANYONE'S GAME 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 2969 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: As Rajasthan votes to elect a new assembly 
on December 4, it is unclear as to which of the two state's 
main parties - the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the 
Congress Party - would get the nod of the voters to form the 
next state government.  Both these parties have had to stave 
off internal bickering.  Despite spiraling inflation and the 
more recent terror attacks in Mumbai, local issues dominated 
the campaign.  Typically, caste issues play a significant 
part in deciding the fate of the parties.  The presence of a 
third party, the Dalit-based  Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), 
could complicate matters.  Pundits are unwilling to predict 
the outcome as the Mumbai terror attacks have injected a 
great deal of uncertainty into voter behavior, although a few 
have stuck their neck out and called a hung assembly with 
neither the BJP nor Congress in a position to win on its own. 
 End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) On December 4, voters in Rajasthan, India's largest 
state by area, cast their votes to elect a new state 
assembly. Over 36 million people are eligible to vote for 200 
seats in the assembly.  Nearly 2,200 candidates contested the 
elections.  The results will be declared on December 8, along 
with those of other states that have gone to the polls in 
recent days.  The state is currently ruled by a BJP 
government led by Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje.  The BJP 
won 120 of the 200 seats in the last election in 2003 with 
the Congress finishing a poor second with 53 seats. 
 
Development: Blaming Delhi is BJP Mantra 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Since 1977, Rajasthan has never voted in any one 
party for two consecutive terms.  The BJP is hoping that this 
anti-incumbency jinx would be broken this time around.  The 
BJP is campaigning heavily on its development record of the 
past five years.  In addition, the party has blamed the 
Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in 
Delhi for high inflation.  Terrorism, which was not a 
significant issue despite bomb blasts in Jaipur earlier this 
year, was suddenly on everyone's mind after the November 
26-29 Mumbai attacks.  While chances are that the Congress 
Party, as the incumbent in Delhi, will suffer because of the 
Mumbai attacks, the extent of the damage is uncertain.  Chief 
Minister Raje, the first woman chief minister of the state, 
is hoping that her appeal to the women voters of the state 
would work its magic just as it did in 2003. 
 
Corruption, Lack of Development - Congress Buzz Words 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶4.  (U) The Congress Party is hoping that the anti-incumbency 
factor, always strong in Indian elections, would work against 
the BJP.  It has largely focused its campaign on the lack of 
adequate development and the perceived corruption of the 
Chief Minister and her cabinet colleagues.  The party argues 
that in the name of development, Raje had turned large tracts 
of agricultural land into commercial land for projects that 
might never see the light of day and in return Raje and her 
cabinet colleagues have received huge kickbacks.  To counter 
Raje's appeal amongst women, the Congress Party has pointed 
out that the last five years has seen a sharp increase in the 
number of shops selling alcohol thereby leading to greater 
alcoholism amongst the male population. 
 
Internal Bickering - Bane of Both 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) While both try to play it down, the BJP and the 
Congress have each been badly affected by internal 
dissention.  Senior BJP leaders like former Foreign Minister 
Jaswant Singh and state party president Lalit Chaturvedi have 
stayed away from the campaign due to differences with Raje. 
 
NEW DELHI 00003066  002 OF 003 
 
 
In an effort to present a new face for the party, the BJP 
denied tickets to more than half (61) of its sitting 
legislators.  The BJP has also had to face the loss of two 
senior caste leaders Vishwendra Singh of the Jats (an 
agragrian caste) and Kirori Lal Meena, arguably the most 
prominent leader of the Meenas (a scheduled tribe). While 
Singh has joined the Congress party, Meena is contesting the 
elections as an independent. Many of them are now either 
fighting as independents or as Congress Party candidates. 
 
¶6.  (U) The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the Hindu 
nationalist organization that is the BJP's mother 
organization and which provides crucial campaign support for 
the BJP, is unhappy with Raje.  It appears to have kept away 
from the campaigning except in about 20 seats where people 
closely associated with the organization are contesting.  The 
RSS pull-back could prove to be a determining factor in many 
tight races. 
 
¶7.  (U) The Congress Party suffers, as it did in Karnataka, 
from not having projected one single popular state leader as 
its chief ministerial candidate.  The perceived chief 
ministerial candidate for the party is Ashok Gehlot, who was 
the chief minister of the state from 1998-2003.  But, his 
image suffers because Delhi has not formally anointed him. 
Out of the Congress Party's 200 candidates, 116 candidates 
owe their allegiance to Gehlot.  This has prompted his rivals 
within the party to stay away from the campaign, and perhaps 
work against the party. 
 
Identity Politic Reigns Supreme 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) While development, internal bickering, inflation and 
terrorism are issues that matter, caste remains supreme in 
Rajasthan politics.  As in past elections, the way various 
ethnic/caste communities vote is likely to determine the fate 
of the candidates.  Traditionally the Rajputs (princely 
caste) have voted for the BJP while the Jats have sided with 
the Congress party. In 2003, the Jats switched allegiance to 
the BJP and helped the party topple the incumbent Congress 
Party.  This time around, the Jats seem to be divided between 
the Congress and the BJP. 
 
¶9.  (U) The other sizable communities like the Meenas and the 
Gujjars also seem to be divided down the middle.  Some 
sections of the Meenas, who have enjoyed favored treatment by 
Raje now fear that, if elected for a second term, she would 
extend more affirmative action programs for their rivals, the 
Gujjars. The Gujjars, who had earlier this year launched a 
bloody agitation to win job and educational preferences for 
their community, also seem to be divided on their support for 
Raje.  While they supported her in 2003 after she promised 
them the quota, many have turned away from her because they 
felt compelled to engage in bloody protests which claimed 16 
Gujjar lives before she granted them the enhanced quotas. 
 
Mayawati Plays a Big Hand 
------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) The aggressive entry of Dalit-based Bahujan Samaj 
Party (BSP) of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati has 
added a new dimension to the contest in Rajasthan.  The BSP 
contested 124 seats in 2003 and won 2 of them.  This time 
around the party is contesting 199 seats and hopes to win at 
least 8-10 seats.  In the last five years, the BSP has gained 
support in north India, wresting power in India's most 
populous state of Uttar Pradesh in 2007 and making a strong 
bid to gain some seats in the Delhi state assembly.  (Note: 
Delhi voters went to the polls on November 29; results of 
will be released alongside Rajasthan's on December 8.)   If 
the BSP is able to work its magical social coalition of the 
upper caster and dalits, then it could hurt the chances of 
both the BJP and the Congress in many seats.  Political 
 
NEW DELHI 00003066  003 OF 003 
 
 
observers, however, opine that the BSP may at best win about 
5 seats.  What it might end up doing is drawing enough voted 
from Congress candidates to tip the seat towards the BJP. 
 
It is All Local 
--------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) In the end, like always, Rajasthan elections will be 
decided primarily on local issues.  Senior journalist and 
keen Rajasthan-watcher Rohit Parihar commented that this time 
around the voting would be based on each candidate's caste 
and the local equations.  Parihar told Poloff that in his 20 
years of following Rajasthan politics, he had not seen an 
election campaign that was so fractured and region specific. 
He elaborated that each region of the state seemed to have 
its own particular local issues on which the campaigning 
focused.  Hindu Rajasthan Bureau Chief Sunny Sebastian 
agreed, saying that this the Rajasthan voter seems to have 
turned his/her back on the many buring national issues. 
 
Comment: Mumbai Attacks 
----------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) The impact of the Mumbai terror attacks on voter 
preferences is likely to be highest among the urban middle 
class.  Since Rajasthan is primarily a rural state with few 
large urban concentrations, the Congress Party is likely to 
suffer less damage in this state as a consequence of the 
attacks than in other, more urban states.  Before the 
attacks, the BJP and the Congress were in a tight contest. 
Should the BJP sweep back into power by a wide margin, it 
will mean that the Mumbai attacks have had a deeper and 
broader impact on voter perceptions of the Congress-led UPA 
government in Delhi. 
MULFORD