VZCZCXRO7829
PP RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #2899/01 3661127
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 311127Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8100
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002899 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM SOCI SO
SUBJECT: Somalia - A Primer on the Puntland Elections 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The semi-autonomous region of Puntland will hold 
presidential elections on January 8, 2009.  The President will be 
elected by the Parliament.  Following the disputed elections of 
2001/2002 and the departure of then Puntland President Abdullahi 
Yusuf for the Transitional Federal Government presidency, Somalia 
watchers are hoping for a more orderly process this time around. 
This is the first of a series of reports on the Puntland elections. 
End summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Somalia's semi-autonomous region of Puntland is preparing 
for parliamentary and presidential elections, which will take place 
in December 2008 and January 2009, respectively.  The current 
Parliament came to power in December 2004.  The incumbent President 
assumed office in the same month, when then Puntland President 
Abdullahi Yusuf was chosen to be Transitional Federal Government 
President.  The terms of Parliament and the President expire at the 
end of this year. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Puntlanders, especially the candidates, have spent much 
time and effort debating which law will govern the January 2009 
election: the 1998 transitional constitution or the 2008 draft 
constitution, which the Council of Ministers approved in August. 
The draft constitution has not been approved by referendum, which is 
necessary in order for it to take effect.  Among the changes 
proposed in the draft constitution are a four-year Presidential term 
(as opposed to the five-year term proposed in the 1998 
constitution), and an independent electoral commission comprising at 
least fifteen members. 
 
Election Mechanics 
------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Puntland president is elected by the 66 members of 
Parliament.  The MPs are selected by their respective clan elders. 
Each clan has a designated number of MPs.  The Parliament 
Ratification Commission approves the MPs' candidacies after 
confirming that they have the full support of their clan leaders. 
The MPs in turn elect the speaker of Parliament, the President, and 
the Vice President. 
 
Controversy Surrounding 
the 2009 Elections 
---------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) In response to disagreements about the 2009 election 
procedures, a group of traditional elders conducted a ten-day 
meeting in early December.  The elders determined that the 
Parliament Ratification Commission would have seven members. Barkhad 
Ali Salah, policy adviser to current President Mohamud "Adde" Muse 
Hersi, will remain the commission's chairman and representative from 
Bari region, where Bossaso is located.  The remaining six members 
will be appointed by the opposition (members for Nugal, Mudug and 
Ayn), while the current president was to appoint members from Sool, 
Sanaag, and Karkar regions. 
¶6. (SBU) Another issue was security forces to maintain order during 
the election process.  The traditional leader's document calls for 
the establishment of a 300-strong police force, the members of which 
will be drawn from different districts, to patrol Puntland's 
capital, Garowe, during the elections.  The force was to be 
commanded by the Puntland government until December 31, according to 
the signed document.  The traditional elders resolved that they 
would supervise the force from January 1 - 10, when the 
newly-elected administration would assume command. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Finally, after opposition candidates expressed concerns, 
the traditional elders forbade the incumbent President from using 
public funds to finance his campaign. 
 
The Campaign 
------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Indirect elections means that campaigning in the community 
is less important than winning support from the 66 MPs.  Among the 
techniques employed have been bribery, appealing to clan loyalties 
among the sitting MPs, and efforts by candidates to leverage their 
popularity.  In most cases candidates have launched their runs well 
before the official, November 8 start of the official campaign. 
 
The Candidates 
-------------- 
 
 
NAIROBI 00002899  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Nearly twenty candidates, including many from the Diaspora, 
have declared their candidacy for the presidency.   The incumbent 
was seen as an early favorite, but observers now believe the 
election could go to another candidate (septel).  Following are 
biographical sketches of the six frontrunners: 
 
-- Mohamud Musse Hersi (Darod/Kabalah/Harti/Majerteen/Mohamud 
Saleebaan): The current president's campaign is well-financed and he 
has a close relationship with many of the MPs.  Hersi, however, has 
been heavily criticized for security lapses, which have seen the 
kidnapping of foreigners, an increase in piracy, and capture of the 
Sool region by Somaliland troops. 
 
-- Nuuradiin Aden Diiriye (Darod/Kabalah/Harti/Majerteen/Mohamud 
Saleebaan): A young, educated candidate, well known by members of 
the international community.  His campaign is also well-financed. 
 
-- General Abdullahi Ahmed Jama (Darod/Kabalah/Harti/Warsengeli): A 
former Somali government official whose military background, some 
believe, will allow him to improve security in Puntland. 
 
-- Ali Abdi Aware (Darod/Kabalah/Harti/Majerteen/Mohamud Saleebaan): 
Former Foreign Minister for President Hersi's government and a 
highly respected politician. 
 
-- Abdirahman Mohamed Faroole (Darod/Kabalah/Harti/Majerteen/Mohamud 
Saleebaan): Formerly a minister for the Puntland government with 
strong financial backing. 
 
(Note:  The Harti clan, from which all candidates come, dominates 
Puntland.  The Mohamud Saleebaan sub-clan is the clan of 
recently-resigned TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf.) 
 
The Issues 
---------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) All candidates have the same general platform: improving 
security, increasing foreign investment, more employment 
opportunities, and recovering the Sool region, which was captured by 
Somaliland troops about one year ago. 
RANNEBERGER