VZCZCXRO6441
OO RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #2776/01 3501356
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 151356Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7902
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEPVAA/COMJSOC FT BRAGG NC IMMEDIATE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA  IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 7438

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002776 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EWWT PREL PINS PGOV SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - PRESIDENT'S ATTEMPT TO SACK PM FOILED BY 
PARLIAMENT 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary. Transitional Federal Government (TFG) 
President Abdullahi Yusuf's effort to fire the Prime Minister 
on December 14 has triggered a backlash from the transitional 
Parliament in Baidoa where, on December 15, a reported 143 
parliamentarians passed a vote of confidence in the Prime 
Minister.  Yusuf's decree, and the Parliament's response, set 
the scene for the next stage of the confrontation among the 
TFG's top leadership.  The Prime Minister has told us that he 
intends to ask the Parliament to approve his long languishing 
transitional cabinet and get down to the business of defining 
the shape of the projected TFG - Alliance for the 
Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) unity government.  He also 
held out the possibility that Parliament will vote no 
confidence in the President or even attempt the more 
difficult business of impeaching him.  President Yusuf, as of 
this writing, has not reacted publicly to the Parliament's 
vote.  End Summary. 
 
------------------ 
Yusuf Fires 
the Prime Minister 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On December 14, Somali Transitional Federal 
Government (TFG) President Abdullahi Yusuf told media he had 
signed a decree relieving Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein 
"Nur Adde" of his duties.  President Yusuf cited Nur Adde's 
failure to prepare and submit a new constitution within one 
year of his appointment and his failure to create a 
functioning government as his reasons for dismissing the 
Prime Minister.  According to media reports, Yusuf made 
thinly veiled references to Nur Adde as corrupt, ineffective 
and treasonous.  In response, the Prime Minister reportedly 
called Yusuf a "liar."  This latest crisis marks a new low in 
President Yusuf's and the Prime Minister's tumultuous 
relationship. 
 
---------------- 
Yusuf Certain 
He Has the Votes 
---------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Special Envoy for Somalia John Yates reached 
President Yusuf by phone in Baidoa on December 14.  Unlike 
recent conversations with us, Yusuf on December 14 was 
resolute and purposeful.  He told S/E Yates that 157 
parliamentarians backed his decision to sack Nur Adde, and 
said he would announce the Prime Minister's successor within 
three days.  When asked, Yusuf denied widespread rumors that 
he had chosen Nur Adde's predecessor, Ali Mohamed Gedi, to 
replace the Prime Minister.  His choice, Yusuf said, would 
"please" members of the international community. (Separately, 
at least one member of parliament reported that former Prime 
Minister Gedi was returning from Nairobi to Baidoa to 
position himself for the prime ministership.) 
 
------------ 
Pressing the 
President 
------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) In separate conversations December 14 and 15 both 
SRSG Ould-Abdallah and the Somalia Unit expressed to Yusuf 
Advisor Hussein Warsame our unhappiness with Yusuf's 
decision.  Ould-Abdallah told Warsame that Nur Adde had been 
an extremely inclusive Prime Minister who had been attempting 
to advance the Djibouti Process.  The timing of Yusuf's 
decision, on the eve of an International Contact Group that 
had high-level international attention, was "most 
unfortunate," and would test the patience of many in the 
international community.  We also told Hussein that we saw 
nothing good in a decision to remove Nur Adde, noting that 
the one constant in the inability of TFG's prime ministers to 
improve governance institutions and complete transitional 
tasks was President Yusuf. 
 
----------------- 
PM Terms Yusuf's 
Decree Illegal; 
Parliament Reacts 
----------------- 
 
NAIROBI 00002776  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In a December 14 conversation with us, the Prime 
Minister termed Yusuf's decree "illegal," and said he had no 
intention of obeying it.  Nur Adde said that he fully 
expected that the Parliament would approve his transitional 
cabinet on December 15, then precede to the formation of a 
unity government.  (On December 15, the Parliament expressed 
confidence in Nur Adde's prime ministership by a vote of 143 
- 20 with 7 abstentions, constituting a quorum).  Nur Adde 
also thought it possible that the parliamentarians, who he 
said were unhappy with Yusuf's decree, would at a minimum 
vote no confidence in the President.  On December 15, there 
was no formal discussion in the Parliament of beginning any 
no confidence or impeachment proceedings against Yusuf.  The 
timing of Yusuf's decree, Nur Adde said, had been pegged to 
the Prime Minister's intention on December 15 to bypass the 
President in getting his proposed cabinet approved.  (Note: 
Parliament also did not debate this proposed cabinet and 
expressed confidence in the existing body.)  Yusuf realized 
he did not have the votes to block Nur Adde, and elected to 
attempt to fire him rather than see himself thwarted by the 
Prime Minister. 
 
-------------- 
Speaker Backs 
Prime Minister 
-------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) S/E Yates also spoke to Speaker of the Parliament 
Sheikh Aden Mohammed Nur "Madobe."  The Speaker told S/E 
Yates that, contrary to President Yusuf's calculations, a 
majority of parliamentarians supported Nur Adde.  The Speaker 
joined Nur Adde in predicting that the parliamentarians would 
vote no-confidence in the President.  The Speaker also noted 
there was parliamentary agreement to discuss the Djibouti 
talks' proposal for a unity government characterized by a 
larger parliament and extended TFG mandate.  The SRSG told us 
December 15 after a separate conversation with Sheikh Aden 
that the Speaker was firmly in the Prime Minister's camp. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) It is unlikely that Yusuf's resistance to Nur Adde 
will end with today's vote by Parliament.  He no doubt 
expected to be rebuffed by the parliamentarians, and is 
likely prepared to attempt to further escalate the 
confrontation.  We hope to keep attention focused on the 
Djibouti Process by issuing a press release supporting 
personnel continuity and a focus on the positive work the ARS 
and its TFG counterparts are doing in Mogadishu. 
RANNEBERGER