VZCZCXRO8505
RR RUEHCHI RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHBI #0587/01 3521400
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171400Z DEC 08
FM AMCONSUL MUMBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6828
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 8073
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 1780
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 1985
RUEHNEH/AMCONSUL HYDERABAD 0016
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCNIND/ALL INDO COLLECTIVE
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 1997

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000587 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: IN PGOV KDEM PHUM PTER KWMN
SUBJECT: MADHYA PRADESH AND CHHATTISGARH:  ELECTIONS, BUT NO NEW 
LEADERS; MAHARASHTRA: NEW LEADERS BUT NO ELECTION 
 
REF: A. MUMBAI  531, 560, 567 
     ¶B. NEW DELI 3097 
 
MUMBAI 00000587  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary. In the recent state elections, the Bharatiya 
Janata Party (BJP) returned to power in both Madhya Pradesh and 
Chhattisgarh with clear victories, though the Congress Party 
made some gains.   In both states, the BJP's development agenda 
and putting forth well-known, respected leaders proved a 
successful formula.  The BJP's campaign theme that the 
Congress-led central government is soft on terrorist did not 
resonate with voters, according to interlocutors.  In 
Maharashtra, the Congress-led coalition government changed key 
leaders in the state in the wake of loud public dissatisfaction 
after the Mumbai terrorist attacks, but observers are not 
convinced it will make a difference in the effectiveness of 
governance.  End Summary 
 
 
 
Madhya Pradesh:  BJP Returns with a Smaller Majority 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP again won confidently, 
capturing 143 of 230 Assembly seats.  The Congress Party won 71 
seats, gaining 33.  This was a massive exercise of democracy: 
over 25 million people voted -a 70 percent turn out.  There were 
56 political parties fielding 3179 contestants for 230 seats, 
almost half of whom were running as independents. Former BJP 
Chief Minister Uma Bharati's party, the Bhariya Jan Shakti Party 
(BJSP), contested 201 seats but won only five; Bharati did not 
even win her own seat.  Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati's 
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) picked up three seats, for a total of 
seven. Four other seats were won by other minority party or 
independent candidates.  The post-election map shows the BJP 
winning in most urban centers, including all of Indore and most 
of Bhopal, but also in a patchwork of rural constituencies 
across the state.  The Congress Party gained seats in rural 
constituencies and the BSP won only along the state's northern 
border with Uttar Pradesh. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) Political observers agree that the BJP's success in 
returning with a clear majority is attributable mainly to their 
projection of a strong, respected, pro-development leader, the 
Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, while the Congress was 
unable to put forward a clear chief ministerial candidate among 
the many senior politicians who hail from MP.  BJP leaders 
opined that the large turn out among women voters - 47 percent 
of those who voted- affirmed the success of the state's 
pro-woman programs, alleviating the financial burden families 
face when they have a girl child.  Both BJP and Congress leaders 
noted that the BJP's replacement of over a third of its 
incumbents who were seen as corrupt or incompetent with fresh 
faces helped overcome anti-incumbent sentiments. 
 
 
 
 ¶4. (U) According to media pundits and political observers, the 
BJP received no mileage from its campaign theme that the 
Congress-led coalition in the central government is soft on 
terrorism.  With the Mumbai terrorist attacks unfolding as 
voters went to the polls in MP, many observers and Congress 
leaders predicted that the Congress Party would suffer at the 
ballot box, but the Congress picked up 33 seats from the BJP and 
now holds 71 assembly seats.  Dr. Manisha Tikekar, political 
science professor at Mumbai University, explained that the 
attacks in Mumbai did not translate into anger against the 
Congress Party in other states.  Smruti Koppikar, Chief of the 
Mumbai Bureau of Outlook Magazine, told Congenoffs that the 
BJP's anti-terrorism mantra was not persuasive because voters 
remember that the Parliament House in New Delhi was attacked by 
terrorists when the BJP controlled the government and hence, 
voters are not convinced that the BJP would improve national 
security. 
 
 
 
Chhattisgarh: BJP Maintains Its Hold 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) The BJP also maintained its hold in Chhattisgarh, winning 
50 seats to the Congress' 38, with two seats going to the BSP. 
There were 1006 candidates from 40 political parties running for 
 
MUMBAI 00000587  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
90 seats. However, the margin of victory between the winning BJP 
and runner up Congress in this election of 15.2 million voters 
was razor thin, with the BJP garnering 40.46 percent of the 
votes, and the Congress receiving 39.03; one newspaper reported 
that the BJP won many of its seats by margins of less than one 
percent.  The BJP won as expected in urban centers, but also 
picked up votes in rural and tribal areas, traditionally seen as 
Congress Party strong-holds. 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Key to the BJP's success was its ability to project Chief 
Minister Raman Singh as a respected, competent leader both on 
the development front and the battle against Naxalites, the 
Maoist insurgents who control wide swathes of the southern part 
of the state.  As in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP helped ensure its 
success by replacing 18 of its 50 sitting Assembly members for 
this year's polls.  Also key to the BJP's success, according to 
political observers, was the BJP's offer of rice at 2 rupees per 
kilo (2 cents per pound), a persuasive campaign promise in one 
of the poorest, most backward states in India.  The BJP's 
success was also a result of inroads the party made into tribal 
areas traditionally held by the Congress, including the 
Naxalite-affected districts of Bastar and Dantewada -here, the 
BJP won in 23 of the 26 districts in the tribal belt.  After the 
election, Congress Party leader Ajit Jogi acknowledged, "We have 
to start afresh in these areas to address the real problems of 
tribals." 
 
 
 
Mahjarashtra: Heads Roll, But More of the Same? 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) In Maharashtra, Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, of the 
Congress Party, and Deputy Chief Minister R.R. Patil, of the 
National Congress Party (NCP), both resigned in the wake of 
public criticism over the government's response to the Mumbai 
terrorist attacks.  See Reftel C.  After three days of 
complicated deliberations by Congress and NCP leaders in New 
Delhi in an effort to maintain the Congress/NCP power sharing 
alliance, Congress Party leader and former state Industry 
Minister Ashok Chavan (son of former Chief Minister and Union 
Home Minister S.B. Chavan) was named Chief Minister.   NCP 
leader and current Minister of Public Works, Chhagan Bhujbal, 
was appointed the new Deputy Chief Minister.  Bhujbal, a 
prominent leader from the "other backward classes", began his 
career as a Shiv Sena leader, but defected to the Congress Party 
in 1990 then to the NCP in 1998.  He served as Home Minister, 
with the public security portfolio from 1999 - 2003, but was 
removed from office after allegations surfaced implicating him 
in several corruption scandals. Bhujbal retains his position of 
Public Works Minister, but he was not given the Home Minister 
position held by his predecessor, R.R. Patil.  The crucial Home 
portfolio, which covers police and public safety, was assigned 
to NCP senior leader Jayant Patil, who was Finance Minister in 
the previous government. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) In an environment where the public has demanded radical 
change in leadership, most analysts agree that the choice of new 
leaders for Maharashtra is uninspiring.  Interlocutors told 
Congenoff that Chavan could be a competent administrator, but is 
not seen as the kind of dynamic leader the state needs now. 
Smruti Koppikar of Outlook Magazine noted that the replacement 
of the CM and DCM satisfied the public's need for retribution 
and accountability, but did not produce any improvement in 
leadership.  She said neither has any particular expertise for 
the job that lies ahead of them, though at least Chavan is seen 
as a competent administrator ~  Other interlocutors confided to 
Congenoffs that Chavan is out of his depth, and would be unable 
to improve the security of the state.  All agreed however, that 
he is not likely to make a difference in the few months before 
the national and state elections, both slated to take place in 
¶2009. While expectations for Chief Minister Ashok Chavan remain 
low, media reported after his first press conference that he 
"surprised many officials with his clear vision and priorities." 
 He told journalists that getting development projects moving, 
plugging regional imbalances and getting power generation 
projects moving were his top priorities. Despite his reputation 
for corruption, Bhujbal is seen as a more dynamic leader with 
experience.   One major real estate developer told Congenoff, 
"All politicians are corrupt; the question is who can get things 
 
MUMBAI 00000587  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
done. Bhujbal is a good administrator." 
 
 
 
 
 
¶9. (U) Media coverage of the appointments focused on the 
political maneuvering that brought each of them to their new 
positions --Chavan as the choice of the Congress Party, and 
Bhujbal as the choice of Shawad Pawar, leader of the NCP. 
(Note:  The governing coalition is a delicate balance.  While 
the NCP has most seats in the Assembly, the Congress leadership 
at the center insisted that a Congress Party leader hold the 
Chief Minister's position; the NPC, retains most of the 
important - and money making - seats, such as Home, Public 
Works, Finance, and others.  End Note.)  Political observers 
noted that discussion of the leaders' fitness for office was 
lost in the coverage of the political machinations in New Delhi. 
 Baljeet Parmar, of DNA noted, "The change of guard has hardly 
helped ... Those loyal to the respective parties got plum 
postings with the patronage of their political masters.  The 
concept of appointing the right man for the right job was 
buried." 
 
 
 
¶10. (U) Comment.  It appears from the MP and Chhattisgarh 
elections that strong, well-respected leaders have resonance 
with voters.  The BJP won both states not only because they did 
relatively well in fulfilling voter expectations on development, 
but also because they put forward strong leaders who were not 
afraid to make radical changes among the party's candidates, 
replacing incumbents who were not performing, in order to 
respond to voter sentiment.  The public clamor for strong 
leaders is especially pronounced in Maharashtra following the 
terrorist attacks.  So far, observers are disappointed by the 
Congress' and NCP's choices.  The Congress is taking a chance 
with the untested Chavan; if he fails to provide good, competent 
leadership, it will not bode well for the Congress Party in 
Maharashtra, one of India's largest and wealthiest states, which 
faces both national and state elections next year. End Comment. 
FOLMSBEE