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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000567 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER ECON KDEM PHUM IN
SUBJECT: CHHATTISGARH ELECTIONS:  BJP CONFIDENT OF FORMING 
GOVERNMENT, CONGRESS SAYS ARITHMETIC IS ON ITS SIDE 
 
REF: A. A 240 
     ¶B. B 325 
     ¶C. C 326 
     ¶D. D 531 
 
MUMBAI 00000567  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The Indian state of Chhattisgarh went to the 
polls on November 14 and 20.  The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP) has made wholesale changes to its roster, throwing out a 
majority of its sitting legislators to avoid anti-incumbency. 
It has high-lighted its anti-Maoist security policies and 
offered rice at give away prices to its poorest citizens.  The 
Congress hopes to gain from anti-incumbency and concern about 
corruption, and aims to woo back tribal voters from the BJP. 
The central and state government provided extensive security for 
the polls, especially in Maoist-affected areas, and voter 
turn-out appears to be high.  Congress leaders agreed that the 
BJP is in a strong position, but hopes to make gains from the 
2003 polls.  However, the BJP has only a four seat majority 
going into the elections, and the loss of a few seats could 
bring a Congress-led coalition to power.  The Mumbai terrorist 
attacks, which occurred after the end of voting, will not be a 
factor in these polls.  End Summary 
 
 
 
CHHATTISGARH VOTING COMPLETED 
 
----------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Chhattisgarh went to the polls in two phases, November 
14 and 20 (Ref D).  On November 14, polls were held in the 12 
districts most affected by the Maoist insurgency in the state, 
and the central and state government provided extensive 
security.  Polls were held in the rest of the state on November 
¶20.  The Election Commission will announce the results on 
December 8.  In the outgoing state assembly of 90 seats in 
Chhattisgarh, the BJP holds 50 seats, the Congress 37, the 
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 1, and the Bahujan Samaj Party 
¶1. (One seat is vacant.)  Chhattisgarh has a significant 
scheduled caste (SC/Dalit) and tribal (ST) population, and large 
numbers of assembly seats are reserved for these disadvantaged 
communities.  Thirty-nine of Chhattisgarh's 90 seats are 
reserved for SC/ST candidates (SC - 10, ST - 29).  As elsewhere, 
the main electoral issues in the state are development, 
security, and anti-incumbency, though Chhattisgarh's faces these 
challenges in unique ways. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) In India, the simple explanation for all voter behavior 
is "anti-incumbency."  When governments lose power, it is 
ascribed to anti-incumbency; when governments maintain power, 
they are said to have overcome anti-incumbency.  Since 
governments so routinely disappoint voters in India, this 
analysis has served pundits well.  Though people of both parties 
respect Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh, observers 
believe that anti-incumbency sentiments will be high; his 
administration has been frequently criticized for corruption and 
poor governance.  A Congress leader from Gujarat who was 
campaigning for his party in Chhattisgarh told Congenoffs, "All 
the anti-government votes will gravitate to the Congress Party. 
Our internal calculations show that both BJP and Congress will 
get 40 seats each comfortably and the ten remaining seats will 
be so thinly won or lost, that whichever party comes to power 
would hold a wafer-thin majority."  According to Ejaz Kaiser, 
Raipur Bureau Chief for the Hindustan Times, an important 
election issue for voters is their desire to see an end to the 
Maoist violence in the southern part of the state, which has 
increased dramatically since 2005. 
 
 
 
ANTIDOTE FOR ANTI-INCUMBENCY? 
 
----------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Recognizing the risk of anti-incumbency, the BJP 
replaced 42 of its 50 sitting assembly members with new 
candidates for the elections.  Gujarat CM Narendra Modi had 
taken the same step with success in the December 2007 elections 
in that state.  Only 46 seats are needed to hold power in 
Chhattisgarh.  Since control of the legislature could be 
 
MUMBAI 00000567  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
reversed by the loss or gain of just a few seats, the BJP is 
hoping this move will pay off.  Some interlocutors, however, 
predict that if the Congress and third parties gain a handful of 
seats, it could explore the possibility of a coalition 
government.  Kaiser predicted that successful third-party 
candidates would more likely align themselves with a 
Congress-led coalition, than with the BJP. 
 
 
 
POLLSTERS PREDICT BJP WITH LEAD 
 
------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) With only 46 needed for a majority, "The Week-C-Voter" 
pre-poll survey shows both major parties close to that razor 
thin margin, but gives a slight to the BJP (44 - 52 seats) over 
the Congress (38 - 46 seats).  In contrast, a Nielsen-Star News 
poll predicts the BJP gaining both vote share and seats, 
resulting in a convincing majority, growing from 50 seats to a 
solid 55 seats.  Polls in India, though, are notoriously 
unreliable. 
 
 
 
 
 
CHEAP RICE WILL BRING HOME THE BACON 
 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) In order to solidify a win, the BJP kicked off what the 
media are calling "rice wars."  Four days ahead of the first 
phase of polling, on November 10, the ruling BJP released its 
election manifesto, including sharp cuts in the price of rice. 
The BJP had been offering rice at 6 cents a kilo to the poorest 
of the poor for the past two years, which, according to 
observers, contributed to BJP victories in two assembly 
by-elections.  Not to be outdone, the Congress, offered rice at 
4 cents per kilo to the poorest in its election manifesto.  In 
response, the BJP promised rice at 2 cents per kilo to the 
poorest of the poor, and at 4 cents per kilo to people just 
below the poverty line.  (Note: Offering rice at below market 
costs also enables the government to offload excess rice 
accumulated over the past 8 to 10 years as a result of price 
supports for farmers that created excess rice production.  End 
Note.)  Chief Minister Singh explained the politics and the 
economics simply: "For Rs. 3 billion ($60 million) more 
annually, I can ensure that not a single person goes to bed 
hungry in my state."  This is an appealing strategy in a state 
with many who struggle to feed their families. 
 
 
 
SALWA JUDUM AND THE NAXALITES: POLITICAL HOT POTATO 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) With an increase in Maoist related violence in the 
southern part of the state since 2005, security and the 
government-sponsored Salwa Judum movement are also a major 
issues.  The Salwa Judum movement has been controversial inside 
and outside Chhattisgarh.  The movement, which started as a 
largely tribal people's movement to oppose Maoist insurgents 
(known locally as Naxalites) in Chhattisgarh, was met with 
violence from the Maoists, driving - or forcing - villagers into 
Internally Displaced Person (IDP) camps.  Though still called 
Salwa Judum, the term now refers to a loose organization of 
tribal villagers, armed by the state to assist in anti-Maoist 
paramilitary operations (Refs A, B, C).  There are now roughly 
40,000 villagers living in IDP camps in southern Chhattisgarh. 
According to Kaiser, candidates have largely avoided talking 
about the Maoist problem, but have expressed differing views on 
the Salwa Judum.  The movement was initiated by senior Congress 
politician Mahendra Karma as a way to peacefully counter the 
Maoist influence in tribal villages, but once these efforts 
turned violent, and villagers fled to the IDP camps, Chief 
Minister Singh of the BJP and the state security forces armed 
some of the villagers, with the support of Karma.  CM Singh has 
 
MUMBAI 00000567  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
vowed that Salwa Judum will continue to operate.  Ajit Jogi, the 
former CM and the un-anointed Congress challenger, promised in 
his election speeches that a Congress government would disband 
the Salwa Judum.  However, Karma and other Congress leaders from 
the Maoist-affected areas of south Chhattisgarh continue to 
express support for Salwa Judum, in some form. 
 
 
 
STRONG VOTER TURNOUT DESPITE MAOIST THREATS 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (U) State and national security forces provided extensive 
security for the polls in southern Chhattisgarh.  Voter turnout 
throughout the state was high, even in Maoist-affected areas. 
 
Though Maoists threatened to "cut-off the hands of people who 
dared to vote," voter turnout was as high as 55 percent in the 
worst impacted areas, according to press estimates. (According 
to official figures, 70.53 percent of eligible voters turned out 
across the districts in the first phase of voting, an estimated 
6.4 million people. In 2003, when violence was less of an issue, 
voter turn-out was reportedly 70 percent as well.) 
 
 
 
¶9. (U) Nevertheless, campaigning by both the major parties was 
subdued in the 12 Maoist-affected constituencies (out of a total 
90 for the state), and there was some violence, though less than 
in the 2003 elections.  Two security personnel died in Maoist 
attacks, down from five in the last election.  Far fewer polling 
stations were disrupted and electronic voting machines looted 
than last time.  Maoists attacked seventeen polling places, but 
the election commission quickly re-established voting.  Twelve 
Salwa Judum associates contested the polls, some as independents 
and some as BJP candidates.  Voters clearly demonstrated their 
refusal to be held hostage by the Maoists, though it is 
difficult to gauge public opinion about the government attempts 
to eliminate the Maoist threat, as well as the Salwa Judum. 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Tribal areas in most parts of the country have 
traditionally voted for Congress candidates.  The Congress Party 
in Chhattisgarh has also historically nurtured tribal 
candidates, who have helped the party develop strong vote banks 
in these poor, rural areas.  In 2003, however, tribal voters in 
the state cast their ballots for the BJP in large numbers, 
helping the BJP come to power.  The BJP expects tribal voters to 
do the same this time; on the evening of the first round of 
polling, CM Singh confided to one of his staff, "My government 
is coming back." 
 
 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment:  The voting in Chhattisgarh was completed 
before the Mumbai terrorist attacks of November 26, so this 
tragedy will not be a factor in these elections.  The BJP 
believes that it will come back to power with a comfortable 
majority, while the Congress hopes to gain enough seats to allow 
it to form a government, perhaps in a coalition with third 
parties.  As one of India's most remote and poorest states, 
gauging public sentiment is difficult.  The government's efforts 
to ensure that its citizens were able to cast their ballot, 
despite security threats and poor infrastructure, is admirable. 
End Comment. 
FOLMSBEE