VZCZCXRO6052
RR RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #3754/01 3641338
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 291338Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1365
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MOSCOW 003754 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM SOCI PTER RS
SUBJECT: MOSTLY QUIET IN THE WESTERN NORTH CAUCASUS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The North Caucasus republics of 
Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia have largely been 
spared the violence and instability of their eastern 
neighbors North Ossetia, Ingushetiya, Chechnya and Dagestan. 
In view of the sustained improvement in the security 
situation there, on December 1 the United Nations Department 
of Safety and Security based in Vladikavkaz upgraded both 
republics (with the exception of the Elbrus region in 
Kabardino-Balkaria) to two on its scale of risk, with five 
being the highest.  Political tensions remain: calls for the 
creation of a "Greater Circassia" continue to serve as a 
lightning rod.  Former Constitutional Court justice Boris 
Ebzeyev, Medvedev's choice in July 2008 to replace Mustafa 
Batdiyev as president of Karachay-Cherkessia has upset the 
republic's minority Cherkess population with a policy 
opposing ethnic quotas in government service.  Likewise, 
Kabardino-Balkaria President Arsen Kanokov's popularity has 
begun to suffer due to perceived cronyism.  Local elections 
scheduled in both republics for March 2009 will show just how 
dedicated their political establishments are to democratic 
principles.  End Summary. 
 
More Secure, but Ethnic Tensions Persist 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) During a December 16-20 trip to the North Caucasus, 
Poloff visited the small, ethnically diverse republics of 
Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia.  While both 
regions have been spared the violence of neighboring North 
Caucasus republics (and were upgraded to 2 out of a 5 point 
security scale by the UN), ethnic tensions remain.  Both 
republics have a dominant majority or plurality ethnic group 
related to a minority ethnic group of the other (Kabardins 
are Circassian, as are the Cherkess; Karachay are Altaic 
Turks, as are the Balkars) and sizable Russian or 
Russian-speaking minorities.  While most were reluctant to 
provide exact figures for the different ethnic groups, they 
agreed that over 60 percent of Kabardino-Balkaria's almost 
900,000 inhabitants are Karbardins, 25 percent are Russian, 
and only 15 percent are Balkars.  Mukhamed Cherkesov, head of 
the Cherkessk-office of Adygea Khasa, a human rights 
organization trying to protect the rights of ethnic 
Circassians in the region, said that only 38 percent of 
Karachay-Cherkessia's nearly 430,000 population are ethnic 
Karachay, 33 percent are Russians, 11 percent are Cherkess, 
seven percent are from an ethnic Abkhaz group referred to as 
the Abazin, and the remaining five percent are ethnic Nogay 
also found in Chechnya and Dagestan. 
 
"Greater Circassia": A Hardy Perennial 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Perhaps prompted by the December 2004 proposal by 
the governor of neighboring Krasnodar Kray to absorb the 
northern Caucasus republic of Adygea (where ethnic 
Circassians make up only 25 percent of the population and 
Russians or Cossacks an overwhelming 75 percent), ethnic 
Circassians in the region (most of whom prefer to identify as 
Adygeans) have renewed their proposal for the creation of a 
new North Caucasus republic uniting into a &Greater 
Circassia8 the republics of Aydegea, Karachay-Cherkessia, 
Kabardino-Balkaria, and even parts of North Ossetia, 
Krasnodar Kray and Stavropol Kray where ethnic Circassians 
live.  They repeated this proposal most recently at a 
November 23 conference in Cherkessk attended by an estimated 
1,000 participants.  Proponents of the plan stated that it 
would be better to solve the social-economic problems of the 
region as one larger republic than three small republics. 
Timur Zhuzhuev, a representative of the youth movement of the 
Adygea Khasa, the civil society group that proposed the 
creation of a unitary republic, said that a united republic 
was needed to guarantee the equal rights of all citizens, 
especially the fair distribution of government jobs at all 
levels.  When asked which ethnic group would dominate such a 
united republic, Adygea Khasa's Cherkesov responded, &the 
Russians.8 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Not all organizations that make up the Circassian 
diaspora and civil society groups support this proposal. 
While the Adygea office of Adygea Khasa supports the call for 
a united republic, the Kabardino-Balkaria office of Adygea 
Khasa has stated publicly that it does not, preferring the 
status quo of three separate republics within the Russian 
Federation.  Even the proposal's staunchest supporters, 
including Cherkesov and Valeriy Khatazhukov, a human rights 
activist from Kabardino-Balkaria, admitted that this proposal 
will probably go nowhere.  Both, however, expressed concern 
about the fate of their cousins in Adygea if the proposal by 
the governor of Krasnodar Kray gains traction in Moscow. 
While officials from Kabardino-Balkaria did not seem worried 
about the proposal, the head of the Committee for 
Nationalities, Mass Communication and Publishing in 
 
MOSCOW 00003754  002 OF 004 
 
 
Karachay-Cherkessia, Rashid Kantserov (an ethnic Karachay), 
expressed concern that the proposal repeated at the November 
23 conference came from the Adygea Khaza's youth movement. 
He told the Caucasian Knot internet information portal that 
young people still do not have a sufficient &world view8 
and had not yet received enough education to be able to 
formulate views on this subject. 
 
Ethnic Quotas in Karachay-Cherkessia 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  According to Kantserov, a vocal minority of ethnic 
Cherkess have opposed changes proposed by President Ebzeyev 
in the republic's top jobs.  After replacing ethnic Cherkess 
Alinka Kardanov as prime minister with ethnic Greek Vladimir 
Kaishev, Ebzeyev also nominated ethnic Russian Sergey 
Smorodin to be the first deputy prime minister and proposed 
Zurab Dokshokov, an ethnic Cherkess, to be the new speaker of 
the parliament.  When some members of the Cherkess community 
complained that they had been promised the newly vacant 
speaker seat, Ebseyev reportedly replied that they could 
nominate their own candidate and that the dominant ethnic 
Karachay and Russian members of the parliament would then 
decide.  This discussion has set off a debate on ethnic 
quotas in the republic, with Ebseyev's office claiming that 
there are no quotas for employment in his administration and 
groups like Adygea Khasa demanding adequate representation 
for ethnic Cherkess at all levels of government.  The 
republic's two representatives in the Russian State Duma are 
ethnic Karachay Akhmat Erkenov and ethnic Russian Natalya 
Maksimova. 
 
Claims of Cronyism Begin to Mar Kanokov's Shiny Start 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Kabardino-Balkaria's president Arsen Kanokov, 
appointed by then President Putin in 2005 to succeed Valeriy 
Kokov, remains on the defensive after putting down a home 
grown radical Muslim insurgency at the outset of his tenure. 
(On October 13, 2005, early on in Kanokov's tenure, a group 
of 157 Islamic extremists attacked 13 different law 
enforcement buildings, including the Ministry of Internal 
Affairs and FSB buildings in the center of Nalchik.  During 
the subsequent gunfight, 92 insurgents, 35 policemen and 14 
civilians died.  Fifty-eight men are currently on trial in 
Nalchik on charges of terrorism).  According to Ivan Sukhov, 
Vremya Novostey's Caucasus correspondent, Kanokov acquired 
the reputation of a good crisis manager who had to regulate 
social relations among the republic's three main ethnic 
groups (Kabardins, Russians and Balkars) as well as clean out 
corrupt officials installed by his predecessor. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The government is still coming to terms with the 
attack and the predominantly home-grown Islamic insurgency 
that carried it out.  On December 12 the republic's Supreme 
Court refused to remove the trial to a different region. 
Igor Tsagoyev, deputy editor-in-chief of the independent 
regional "North Caucasus" who lost a colleague during the 
gunfight, agreed that there are few in Nalchik who were not 
touched by the incident, but hewed closely to the official 
line that moving the trial to another location, even to 
nearby Stavropol Kray, would be too expensive.  Remnants of 
the group that carried out the attack are still active in the 
area around Mount Elbrus, and a quick review of the wanted 
list of suspected terrorists at the nearby Mineralniye Vodiy 
airport revealed that half are from Kabardino-Balkaria and 
half of them are from the area around Mount Elbrus. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Kanokov has attempted to make amends to the 
Islamic community.  According to Anas Pshikhachev, the chief 
mufti of Kabardino-Balkaria, since the October 2005 attack on 
government buildings by Muslim extremists, the republic's 
government has supported the construction of mosques in every 
village that wanted one, although Pshikhachev was quick to 
point out that the costs of construction in all cases were 
covered locally by private donations.  The number of new 
mosques has declined, however, and only seven were built in 
all of 2008.  The muftiate's office is located at Nalchik's 
largest mosque, competed in 2004, which can accommodate 2,000 
worshippers.  A total of 323 pilgrims from the republic 
participated in this year's hajj.  One year ago the North 
Caucasus Islamic Institute in Nalchik acquired university 
status, although it is still waiting for a license from the 
Ministry of Education, Science and Technology so that it can 
issue university degrees and provide a deferment from 
military service.  Russia's newest Islamic university, 
located in cramped quarters not far from the city's largest 
mosque, only has 70 students ) 25 of whom are women. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Tsagoyev and Valeriy Khatazhukov, a human rights 
activist affiliated with Moscow-based Lev Ponomarev, agreed 
that despite his background in business, Kanokov has not done 
 
MOSCOW 00003754  003 OF 004 
 
 
enough to improve the economic situation in 
Kabardino-Balkaria.  Neither could point to any new industry 
created during his presidency.  Both complained that Kanokov 
has filled government vacancies with &his own people.8 
Kanokov has avoided the quota issue being debated next door 
in Karachay-Cherkessia because, at 60 percent of the 
population, ethnic Kabardins are the clear majority, and 
through an informal agreement, the job of Speaker of the 
Parliament is reserved for an ethnic Balkar. 
 
Both Republics Prepare for Upcoming Local Elections 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶10.  (SBU) On March 1, 2009, both Kabardino-Balkaria and 
Karachay-Cherkessia will hold regional elections.  Under the 
current election law adopted on August 5, 2008, the March 
2009 election will be conducted under a party-list system and 
the number of deputies has been reduced from 110 to 72. 
(Note:  Despite this reduction in the number of mandates, 
parties can include up to 120 candidates on their party list, 
leaving wide open the chance that &engines8 will be 
included on the list to attract voters.  According to 
Caucasian Knot, Kanokov heads United Russia's list, followed 
by current parliament speaker Ilyaz Bechelov and Yuriy 
Krasnozhan, the popular coach of Nalchik's Spartak football 
club.  Presumably, of the three, only Bechelov will be 
interested in serving in the local parliament.  End Note). 
In order to gain at least one seat, a party must pass a seven 
percent threshold.  In the last local election in 
Kabardino-Balkaria in December 2003, United Russia received 
71.42 percent of the vote, the KPRF received 8.69 percent and 
the Agrarian Party recently aligned with United Russia) 
received 8.56 percent.  Election Commission head Andrey 
Tupikin told us December 17 that although 14 parties were 
registered with the Commission, only five (United Russia, the 
KPRF, Zhironovskiy's Liberal Democratic Party, Just Russia 
and the Patriots, Party had said they would participate.  He 
pointed out, however, that the deadline for parties to 
register is December 28.  According to Caucasian Knot, on 
December 13 the regional branches of SPS, Civic Force, the 
Democratic Party of Russia and the public group Business 
Russia held an organizational meeting to form a branch of the 
new Right Cause Party. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) In Karachay-Cherkessia the March 2009 local 
elections will be conducted using the mixed system of 
single-mandates and party lists prevalent in Russia before 
Vladimir Putin became president.  The local parliament has 
not written a new election code, and the law enacted June 12, 
2006, is still in force.  According to Mehti Baitokov, the 
republic's young, new head of the Election Commission, 36 of 
the 73 deputies will be elected from single mandates and 37 
from party lists.  In the last election held on March 14, 
2004, United Russia won 24 single mandate seats, the KPRF won 
7, and LDPR and the True Patriots both won 3.  In addition, 
United Russia won 55.69 percent of the unitary (party-list) 
vote, the KPRF 15.57 percent, the True Patriots 6.99 percent 
and the LDPR 6.91 percent.  There is also a seven percent 
threshold parties must pass in order to receive seats from 
party list voting.  As in national elections in Russia, 
parties that receive less than three percent of the vote are 
required to pay for any free airtime or other public support 
they receive. 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  The 324 members of local election commissions 
were chosen in early December, and in addition to an 
overwhelming number of representatives from United Russia 
(190), they also include 36 from the KPRF and 19 from the 
liberal Yabloko Party.  These local election commissions had 
their first organizational meeting on December 20.  The 
deadline for registering candidates and candidate lists is 
the first week of January.  Baitokov, who only took over as 
head of the republic's election commission in July after 
serving several years as head of its technical and 
communications department, expects a large turnout of around 
80 percent (up from the normal 60 percent turnout in national 
elections) because in addition to voting for deputies to the 
republic assembly, voters will also elect their local 
governments. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Mukhamed Cherkesov from Adygea Khasa told us that 
ethnic Cherkessk are members of various parties and will 
appear on several party lists.  He added that, in addition to 
these party list candidates, there will be individual 
candidates for 15 of the 36 single-mandate constituencies. 
He hoped that since the single-mandate constituencies are 
contested on a &first past the post8 basis, ethnic Cherkess 
would have a real chance of being elected if the other ethnic 
groups split their votes over several candidates.  His 
organization will do what it can to make sure ethnic 
Cherkessk &get out the vote8 and will try to enlist several 
successful Cherkessk businessmen to help. 
 
MOSCOW 00003754  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Despite having been spared the violence and 
instability prevalent in the rest of the North Caucasus, 
Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia have their own 
problems based on their ethnic diversity that their 
presidents must continue to juggle and local opposition can 
continue to exploit. 
RUBIN