VZCZCXRO2921
RR RUEHSK
DE RUEHMO #3575/01 3451453
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101453Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1076
INFO RUEHSK/AMEMBASSY MINSK
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 003575 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EFIN RS
SUBJECT: SMOLENSK: HOPE IN GOD AND PUTIN, APATHY IN ALL ELSE 
 
REF: A. MOSCOW 3506 
     ¶B. MOSCOW 436 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Recent conversations with government, 
political, business, religious and NGO officials in Smolensk 
revealed the divisions between official messages of calm and 
stability and the nervousness and discontent among citizens. 
Senior United Russia officials, speaking in their capacity as 
local and regional government officials, argued that Smolensk 
enjoyed political and economic stability, and that it would 
manage well through any economic downturn.  Privately, 
though, opposition party, business, NGO and media 
representatives cited indicators of the already worsening 
economic situation in the region, and the helplessness of 
local and regional government leaders in taking any effective 
action to mitigate consequences for citizens.  Mayoral 
elections in March 2009 may see a new generation take office, 
but public cynicism about official corruption means little 
will change.  End Summary. 
 
Regional Government: Everything Under Control 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Located approximately 350 miles to the west of 
Moscow, the city of Smolensk and the oblast of the same name 
have suffered significant declines in population and 
investment over the past 10 years.  Increased revenue from 
the federal budget has enabled regional and local authorities 
to maintain and expand support for citizen services, though 
not for public infrastructure (roads, etc.), which are in 
poor condition.  Both Smolensk Oblast Governor Antufyev and 
Smolensk city Mayor Haletskiy served as deputies in their 
respective administrative organizations before taking their 
seats as executives.  They were rewarded for their loyalty to 
United Russia and (then) President Putin, and for their 
ability to satisfy local business (and some say, criminal) 
interests. 
 
¶3. (C) Nonetheless, the Governor's Spokesman, Yuriy Glebov, 
December 1 painted for us a picture of Smolensk making the 
most of its location, agricultural resources and the 
entrepreneurship of citizens.  Glebov claimed that there were 
no concerns that major regional enterprises might have to 
reduce staff, that businesses or the government would be 
unable to fulfill payment obligations, or that there would be 
any slowdown in construction.  Indeed, joined by city deputy 
mayor Raisa Cheberyak, he emphasized rather that the drop in 
housing prices was enabling even more citizens to own homes. 
Stable employment conditions encourage young people to remain 
in the city and region after studies at institutions of 
higher learning, like Smolensk State University.  And 
financial support from the oblast for parents of more than 
one child was helping to reverse demographic trends that 
imperiled the long-term vitality of the region. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Seemingly more out of hope than on the basis of any 
significant tangible developments, regional political leaders 
told us that Smolensk's proximity to Belarus, the open border 
and tariff-free trade in certain commodities represented 
valuable commercial potential for the oblast and city.  They 
pointed to joint projects in food production and machine 
construction as the most promising fields for cooperation. 
They downplayed political disagreements between Minsk and 
Moscow, and spoke instead of the people-to-people contact 
that flourished in spite of the problems. Separately, 
journalists and business leaders said that economic activity 
with Belarus amounted to little, and that the economic 
livelihood of few in the region was connected in any way to 
Belarus. 
 
Weak Local United Russia Leadership Noticed 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) In contrast, leaders of medium-sized businesses, 
independent analysts and lower-level officials in the 
regional and local United Russia party apparatus openly 
pointed to stagnation in local and regional leadership. 
Communist Party leader Valeriy Kuznetsov proudly cited the 
fact that among all Russia's regions, support for Medvedev in 
the March presidential elections was weakest in Smolensk, and 
strongest for the Communist Party.  Smolensk Pravoe Delo 
chairman Mikhail Khvostantsev, a personal acquaintance of 
Governor Afuniev since the days when they were both deputy 
governors, said that the governor's lack of business and 
leadership skills had translated directly into Smolensk's 
inability to use its resources to improve infrastructure and 
attract business.  Given the current economic climate, and in 
spite of intimations of economic impropriety on the part of 
Afuniev, Khvostantsev said he did not expect Moscow to make 
any changes in regional leadership. 
 
MOSCOW 00003575  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Vyacheslav Osin, Human Rights Ombudsman for Smolensk 
told us that 90 percent of the appeals to his office and 
correspondingly, 90 percent of his time, are devoted to 
financial shortfalls experienced by more vulnerable members 
of society in Smolensk, especially orphaned children and the 
elderly.  He acknowledged that his attempts to intercede on 
behalf of citizens facing difficulties, or those unable to 
secure what they perceived as justice from the court system 
had been a waste of time.  "The court system is the least 
transparent, the most dependent on politics from above.  I 
gave up trying to fight corrupt justices who receive the 
verdicts they will hand down by telephone.  Instead, I 
focused on people who I could actually help."  That has 
become more important since early autumn, he said, as 
unemployment has grown and as state assistance to the needy 
in the region has been delayed in order to fund other 
obligations. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Smolensk will hold mayoral elections in March, 2009. 
 Current Mayor Vladimir Haletskiy faces strong competition 
from within the local United Russia establishment.  Chairman 
of the Public Chamber Yuriy Rebrik, donning his hat as former 
member of the national Supreme Council of United Russia, told 
us that he had given up on Haletskiy for not doing enough to 
combat organized crime in the city.  He argued that Smolensk 
needed a new, younger generation to take power, citing the 
election of Barak Obama as a great example for Russian 
citizens of the importance of participating in the democratic 
process.  That said, all political organizations aside from 
United Russia cited the personal business connections each of 
the major United Russia pretenders has with local and 
regional government.  Independent journalist Sergey Kovalev 
bemoaned the total absence of any trust by citizens in 
currently elected officials or any of those who might 
possibly assume office.  Smolensk survives not as a result of 
any decisions taken locally, but because of the largesse that 
comes from the national budget and Moscow decisions to invest 
in local industry.  Khvostantsev echoed the sentiment, noting 
that he was placing his hopes in Pravoe Delo godfather 
Anatoliy Chubais as the one through whom his personal 
relations who could save Smolensk from continuing to decline. 
 
Save Us, Vladimir Vladimirovich 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Director of United Russia's/Premier Putin's Smolensk 
"reception center" Aleksey Seryy (a USG FLEX program alumnus) 
told us that he faces a difficult task of attempting to 
satisfy local residents who have placed all their hopes in 
the ability of Putin to solve their (local) problems.  He 
said he is becoming increasingly frustrated with the refusal 
to bring clearly local problems, including the shortage of 
daycare and kindergarten facilities, to the attention of 
local authorities.  Instead, he is asked to convey even 
demands of a local nature to Moscow for Putin to resolve. 
(Note: Putin himself made the same comment during q's and a's 
with reporters after his December 4 call-in program on live 
national television.  End Note.) 
 
¶9. (SBU) Indeed, the centerpiece of the region's economic 
well-being is the Krystal diamond fabrication plant. 
Although government officials said the facility is 
functioning at standard capacity, local business leaders, and 
United Russia officials (who are beginning to receive 
complaints from employees) reported that the plant is working 
only 3-4 days per week, and that the company has also failed 
to pay employees' salaries on time.  Khvostantsev told us 
that failure to make any major investment in new technology 
for the facility, which should have occurred when times were 
better, is a death sentence.  It will continue to loss 
relevance -- and customers. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Critical for citizens in the region is the 
appearance of national political stability.  Kovalev, 
Khvostantsev and United Russia's Seryy told us that citizens 
do not differentiate between Medvedev and Putin.  As long as 
Putin remains in a significant position in national 
leadership and has taken responsibility for seeing Russia 
through its current economic difficulties, it does not matter 
who else is at the helm with him.  Communist Party chief 
Kuznetsov said he had given up discussing the envisioned 
extension of presidential terms because it was simply not 
seen as relevant by local citizens to their daily lives. 
Moreover, many supported it as either necessary to ensure 
political stability - either with Medvedev at the helm from 
2012-2018, or with Putin again as president. 
 
Aide to Metropolitan Kirill Describes Agenda 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
MOSCOW 00003575  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The Russian Orthodox Church plays a key role in 
the life of the city, in large part due to the fact that it 
is the seat of Metropolitan Kirill, now Interm ROC Head 
following the death of Patriarch Aleksey II.  Kirill's aide 
Bishop Ignatiy told us over lunch that Smolensk has greatly 
benefited from the presence of Kirill in the city.  He has 
been able to use his influence and stature with local and 
regional officials to bring national and international 
attention to the city, and to weigh in on behalf of policies 
(religious education in schools, financial support for young 
families and restrictions on the availability of abortions) 
consistent with ROC positions.  Svetlana Yegorova, Chairwoman 
of the Center for Women's Support NGO, said she takes into 
account ROC views when she works with local officials on 
women's issues, noting in particular the authority Kirill 
wields in the community. 
 
Comment: All Politics is Local, But Help is National 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Stagnation in Smolensk is not just a matter of 
lackluster local leadership, but a symptom of the vertical of 
power and economic dependency which affects many regions.  As 
eyes increasingly turn to Moscow, and specifically to Putin, 
for guidance through tough times, all politics may indeed be 
local (for better or worse), but the only help that matters 
or that people trust is that which comes from the national 
level. 
RUBIN