VZCZCXYZ0279
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0704/01 3511637
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161637Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8661
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000704 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/BSC FOR MARY DASCHBACH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL UY
SUBJECT: FRENTE AMPLIO CONGRESS FAILS TO CHOOSE OFFICIAL 
CANDIDATE 
 
REF: MONTEVIDEO 679 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The December 13-14 Frente Amplio (FA) 
party congress designated Former Agriculture Minister and 
ex-Tupamaro guerrilla, Jose Mujica, as the coalition's 
official nominee, while still allowing the remaining 
candidates to compete in internal elections (primaries) in 
June. The Congress also finalized the FA's campaign platform, 
which took a turn to the left (with a tinge of 
Anti-Americanism), but not as radically as many stalwarts had 
hoped.  President Vazquez's favored successor, former 
Minister of the Economy Danilo Astori, suffered a serious 
blow in the process, coming in third in the weekend voting, 
and the platform debate illustrated the Frente faithful,s 
discomfort with Vazquez's pragmatic, centrist policies.  We 
continue to hear doubts about whether the weathered, folksy 
Mujica, with his violent past, will be a competitive 
candidate in general elections; however, political analysts 
and pollsters currently show him in the lead for the Frente 
Amplio primaries and in the autumn,s general elections.  End 
Summary. 
 
Mujica wins the endorsement, but not the candidacy 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2. (U) About 2,400 delegates from over 40 parties attended 
the congress on December 13-14.  The designation of Jose 
Mujica as the official nominee with 71% of the votes was the 
highlight of the event.  In the past, the FA has been able to 
avoid internal elections by agreeing on a candidate during 
the congress, but this year, the winner of the congress's 
election will only receive an endorsement by the coalition, 
not an official candidacy.  Five candidates competed for the 
endorsement and received the following levels of support: 
Jose Mujica (71%), Marcos Carambula (43%), Danilo Astori 
(24%), Daniel Martinez (22%), and Enrique Rubio (17%).  Note: 
 Delegates can vote for more than one candidate. End note. 
The final decision will be made in FA internal elections in 
late June.  The candidate will then select his vice 
presidential running mate (reftel). 
 
¶3. (U) Background:  During the last presidential elections in 
2004, both of the two traditional parties, the Colorados and 
the Blancos, were facing massive unpopularity after the 2002 
economic crisis.  This led to an overwhelming victory for the 
FA, including a majority in both houses of Parliament.  This 
year's elections are unlikely to be as clean-cut, and the 
inability of the FA to choose a candidate in its congress is 
evidence of that (the Frente traditionally tries to avoid 
internal elections).  Whichever party wins the general 
elections is unlikely to enjoy a majority in the legislative 
branch. 
 
Marcos Carambula enters the ring 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Mujica forged a strong majority in the FA Congress 
by ensuring close coordination between his MPP faction and 
the Communist Party.  Current polls show him with a strong 
lead in the June primaries, but a Mujica victory in the 
general elections is far from certain.  Some fear that the 
same qualities that bolster his popularity (frankness, 
effective and frequent use of local slang, brazenness) will 
make him an ineffective, and even embarrassing, 
representative of Uruguay on the world stage.  Long time 
Presidential hopeful, Danilo Astori, is widely expected to 
run in the primaries, but the third place showing after 
Marcos Carambula (governor of Uruguay,s second largest 
department) was a serious blow.  Carambula is a medical 
doctor and long-time, popular politician with support from 
the Communist Party, who may be viewed as a good vice 
presidential candidate.  Minister of Industry and Energy 
Daniel Martinez (who surprisingly won the support of the 
Socialist Party earlier in December) and Minister of Planning 
Enrique Rubio have not yet announced if they will continue 
their campaigns. 
 
The Campaign Platform - The Most Radical Proposals Blocked 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Deliberations over the Frente Amplio coalition's 
campaign platform were extensive and heated.  Many of the 
most radical proposed campaign positions were moderated, as 
the delegates (led by Minister of the Interior Daisy Tourne) 
decided to give their eventual candidate as much leeway as 
possible.  The FA platform includes a statement opposing the 
signing of a free trade agreement with the U.S. that is 
"similar to that of Peru and Colombia," toning down the 
original language that banned any sort of trade agreement 
with the U.S.  Similarly, the Congress voted to seek the 
 
gradual removal of troops from Haiti over time, rather than 
removal of all Uruguayan troops from peacekeeping missions. 
Instead of banning all foreign investment, the Congress voted 
to oppose foreign purchases of land.  The platform also calls 
for legalization of abortion; the creation of a Ministry of 
Justice; electoral reform; and a referendum on the repeal of 
the law on amnesty for perpetrators of abuses during the 
military dictatorship of 1973-1985. The platform also 
includes a provision criticizing activity in Uruguay by the 
U.S. military, although the very next day the Frente Amplio 
Minister of Health presided over an event celebrating the 
construction of the Santa Catalina clinic (a significant 
project planned and developed by Embassy Montevideo,s Office 
of Defense Cooperation). 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. Although there will still be a primary race, the FA 
Congress's vote in favor of Mujica gives him a significant 
edge. The need for internal elections is also an indication 
of the growing schisms in the Frente Amplio coalition. 
President Vazquez's veto of the FA-supported bill to legalize 
abortion, his subsequent resignation from the Socialist 
Party, and the failure of the FA to support his favored 
candidate is further proof of the increasing divide.  Despite 
its incumbency and popularity, the FA's difficulty in 
presenting a unified front will likely serve to weaken it in 
general elections.  End Comment. 
 
Matthewman